KARACHI, June 14: Has Pakistan’s exports benefited from Sars that afflict China for almost a year now? Pakistan’s export grew by over 21 per cent and are likely end up close to $11 billion by the end of this month. How much Pakistan has been able to gain from this affliction that hit our friendly neighbour China?

This question becomes relevant in context of the euphoria being seen in the government. President General Pervez Musharraf expects Pakistan maintaining same tempo in export will touch $20 billion mark in next four years.

But all these people in the government and in business agree that China was stigmatized by the Western countries and there is a possibility that a small part of China’s share may have been diverted towards Pakistan.

Tariq Ikram, State Minister and Chairman of Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), said that he was confident that no buyers mission from the United States or Europe visited China. He doubted whether Chinese sales mission visited the US and Europe in the recent past. But he was not sure whether Pakistan was able to get any share from China in European and American markets.

Aziz Memon, chairman of Quota Supervisory Council (QSC) was also unsure whether Sars epidemic in China helped to push up Pakistan’s exports. But quite a few businessmen, big name in textiles say that leading departmental store chains in the US and Europe had stopped buying textile goods and other items from China for last few months and “there is all the possibility that Pakistan may have supplied some of the shortfalls”.

Whether any share of China’s products in American and European markets shifted to Pakistan or not, the EPB chairman was confident that Pakistan’s exports in the next year may go up to $12.25 billion on the basis of an assumed 10 per cent growth over the current fiscal year’s export earnings likely to exceed $11 billion.

Pakistan’s total export earnings in first 11 months of this fiscal are close to $9.9 billion and officials in the EPB were confident of exceeding $11 billion figure by the end of this month.

A more than $1.10 billion increase said to be a very conservative and cautious estimate is likely to take up total export earnings close to $12.25 billion by next fiscal year.

“Textiles remained the driver of the export growth and contributed almost 68 per cent in the increase”, Dr Kaiser Bengali, chief executive of the Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC), informed a press briefing on Saturday. He made this point while trying to stress that Pakistan’s manufacturing and export base was too narrow.

But Tariq Ikram is all for textiles where a lot of investment has been made in last three years. “Businessmen invest only when they are confident of getting good money in return,” he remarked to point out that textile is bound to remain Pakistan’s foreign exchange earner for many years to come.

The latest import figures show that textile machinery worth $462 million have been shipped in Pakistan during last 11 months of the current fiscal year. It shows that revamping and modernization of the textile industry is still underway.

Aziz Memon wants textile dealers to go for quick revamping of their production facilities. He said that the textile manufacturers in US in North and South Carolina and in Europe have decided to relocate their industries.

“It is time that Pakistani investors should go to Europe and the US and negotiate purchase of reconditioned machinery and equipment and also develop infrastructure for marketing of their products,” Memon said.

Textile Vision drawn up three years ago projected total textile exports to touch $8bn mark by next June. In last 11 months of the current fiscal year textile exports fetched over $6.4bn and in all likelihood is expected to exceed $7bn by end of this June.

Now that a new incentive economic package is being worked out with the US trade officials and businessmen are confident of maintaining growth tempo in export next year and $8bn earning should not appear to be a big deal.

The EPB chairman said that Pakistan was doing very well in those items which had been taken out of textile export quota regime. He expects close collaboration with China for at least three years after the year 2005 when Pakistan would be out of quota regime and China would remain within this fold till 2008.

“We have identified 20 categories where China and Pakistan can work together for marketing of our products,” he said.

While textile will remain the driver of exports, the officials are also focussing on other items as well. Rice, leather and its products, sport goods, carpets and wools, surgical instruments and petroleum products are also receiving attention of the export planners.

Officials have also identified 10 developmental category of items which are IT, fisheries, fruits and vegetables, poultry, gems and jewellery, marble and granite, engineering goods, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and general services.

“We have worked out a strategy and a data bank to constantly update exporters in their respective areas of business,” remarked Tariq Ikram to assert that gains during 2002-03 were not one time achievement but are results of hard efforts that will continue in coming years.

He claimed that export strategy was not being drawn up in a vacuum. “A huge and massive data bank has been developed and Pakistani exporters mostly textile businessmen are constantly updated on the international trends and developments”.