Twin tasks ahead

PERHAPS taking note of the prevailing doubts and misgivings about the prospect, President Musharraf gave his “personal guarantee” that the elections in October will be fair, free and transparent. Speaking at the flag-hoisting ceremony in Islamabad on the independence day, he said the political reforms introduced by his government would pave the way for “an era of true democracy.” The people, he said, had become disenchanted with politicians who had been given chances again and again to serve them. It was now up to the Election Commission, he said, to enforce the rules his government had framed to ensure the fairness of the process. His instruction to the Election Commission may be well-meaning, but there is no guarantee that the EC will be able to prevent the use of the official machinery for the benefit of candidates who have the establishment’s blessings. More important, people wondering why the ban on political activity has not been lifted yet. One had thought that in his independence day speech the president would announce the date when political activity could be resumed and the ban on rallies lifted. In view of the continued ban, governors and ministers have the benefit of unofficially launching their election campaign. This gives a legitimate cause for grievance to all political parties, because they have to seek official permission to hold a rally. With less than two months left for the election to be held, the continued ban on electioneering seems to run counter to the promise of a free and fair election. Similarly, the government must see to it that the order given by the EC to the state-controlled electronic media with regard to balanced coverage of all candidates is strictly adhered to.

The president did well to dwell on the question of terrorism and reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to root out this scourge. He claimed that his government was following “a methodical approach” and that a sizable number of gangs have been smashed, and “almost all top criminals with head money” have been arrested. Nevertheless, as the president himself pointed out, there were no “quick fix” solutions to the problem of “sectarianism and extremism.” Terrorism has been with us now for well over a decade and a half. This is the price Pakistan continues to pay for its role as a “front line” state during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The mushroom growth of jihadi parties — with full patronage of the ISI — has done incalculable harm to Pakistani society. In the decade of the ‘90s particularly, these jihadi organizations became a state within state.

The post-September 11 scenario, however, radically altered their relationship with the government. The subsequent ban on several extremist parties and the round-up of militants have served to check their activities. But it is too early to say how effectively they have been reined in. Acts of terrorism continue to occur in Pakistan, making it quite clear that it would take quite some time and more vigorous efforts for the government’s tough line against terrorism to produce the intended results. Lately, however, the extremist organizations seem to be concentrating on Christian and western targets and thus making their opposition to the government’s policy of siding with the world coalition against terrorism known. This savage way of making a point must be countered with all the resources of skill and endeavour that the success in the current drive against terrorism calls for. One hopes the government will not waver in its efforts and determination to root out terrorism in all its forms.

Poor governance & poverty

THE trend of poverty intensification that was dominant during the 1990s has continued to persist during the last three years. This is despite a marked improvement in the availability of foreign assistance and a strong policy emphasis on poverty alleviation. This assessment of the Asian Development Bank, contained in its country survey entitled ‘Poverty in Pakistan’, is a confirmation of the rigours being experienced by the poverty-stricken people. According to the report, in 1999 when the present regime took over, 32 per cent of Pakistanis were living below the poverty line. In 2002, this figure is estimated to have risen to 35. The highest contribution to this situation is attributable to continued bad governance, despite the policy direction of the present government being right and partial successes in pursuit of new policy shifts and priorities in the social sector.

According to the survey, the government’s options in regard to poverty alleviation have continued to be limited because of heavy spending on defence and debt repayment which together consumed 90 per cent of the tax revenues during the 1998-2000 period. An added factor is said to be the failure of Wapda, the KESC, and the CBR to spruce themselves up. The two utilities continue to be a big drain on the budget and dig deeper and deeper into the pockets of the consumers. Likewise, the CBR continues to trail way behind in collecting the budgeted revenues. The result of these failures is less money to be spent on physical infrastructure and social sector development. A bad law and order situation and the deterioration in the regional security environment make the climate for private foreign and domestic investment highly unfavourable. All these factors have combined to reduce the economy’s capacity to absorb the annual addition of about 600,000 to the labour market besides the backlog that is already there. As a result, the rate of unemployment had risen to 7.8 per cent in 2000 after remaining static for a long time at around six per cent.

The poverty alleviation strategy of the government, strongly supported by the international financial institutions, relies mainly on the success of the devolution scheme and providing easy access to micro-finance and justice. The devolution plan is supposed to improve delivery of services and efficient use of spending, especially on education, health and rural infrastructure. Much will depend on how the distribution of powers among the three tiers of the government — federal, provincial and local — is effected. The micro-finance schemes have not yet fully taken off. To what extent, these schemes prove an improvement on similar ones in the past for giving small loans to the farmers and small businesses remains to be seen. What can, however, have a wide impact on rural areas where poverty is rampant is land reforms to which the ADB survey seems to have made only a passing reference. For the time being, what can make a vital difference is changing crop-sharing tenancy into the cash rent mode. This can alleviate poverty of millions of tenant farmers in a short time.

It is encouraging that the ADB has made a firm commitment to continue to assist Pakistan in the task of alleviation of poverty and provide loans at more or less the last year’s level of $957 million for the next four years. The main beneficiaries of this assistance will be the local bodies, judiciary and the police for their reforms. It must be stressed, however, that GDP growth depends crucially on continuity of policies and stable law and order and these in turn are dependent on a national consensus on broad aspects of governance.