LAHORE, March 18: The country may have to face an average daily loadshedding of eight hours from Friday with hydroelectric generation declining by some 2,000MW, taking the peak hour deficit to around 3,500MW.

On Tuesday, when 50,000 cusecs of water was being released from two main dams, the Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco) faced a shortfall ranging from 1,600MW to 2,550MW — an average of 2,075MW.

According to the company’s figures, the hydroelectric contribution on Tuesday ranged between 1,250MW and 3,419MW, with an average of 2,334MW. From Friday, the hydroelectric component would go down by around 2,000MW, when the Tarbela dam may hit the dead level and releases from the Mangla may decline to a paltry 8,000 cusecs – down from 44,000 cusecs two weeks ago.

Power generation from Tarbela would be reduced to run of the river supplies, which came down to 23,000 cusecs on Wednesday. Although Sindh is still running its canals, Punjab has exhausted its Rabi share from Tarbela dam.

With hydroelectric generation reduced by around 2,000MW, the current deficit will rise to 3,500MW –about 30 per cent of the present demand ranging between 10,600MW and 12,500MW.

If the traditional load management by Pepco is something to go by, urban areas might suffer around six to seven hours of loadshedding and rural feeders from seven to nine hours.

Providing around 600MW to the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) is another factor causing a serious problem for Pepco. On March 16 last year, the KESC was getting only 190MW against 600MW this year. The supply is creating a hole in Pepco supply, worsening the situation for the rest of the country.

The thermal generation seems to be saving the day for Pepco, with independent power producers (IPPs) contributing up to 4,900MW, Pepco’s own thermal units another 2,600MW and rental power chiming in with 225MW.

On Wednesday, Tarbela stood at 1,370.92 feet – some 1.9 feet above the dead level of 1,369 feet, with an outflow of 35,000 cusecs against an inflow of 23,300 cusecs. The Mangla dam, which stood at 1,073.92 feet, up from 1,060 feet a few days, holding 300,000 acres feet of water, is being impounded as Punjab does not need water after March 20 because it had applied last watering to wheat crop.

“The situation would now start worsening here onwards corresponding to weather condition and increase in demand of power supply,” said one Pepco official. Hydroelectric generation is the decisive factor, as thermal production is almost a constant factor. With water releases getting squeezed by the day, the generation would start going down, increasing loadshedding correspondingly, he said. “The situation during March might be bad, and it would worsen during May-August when weather turns hot and humid, adding another 5,000MW demand to the current tally. The company fears that total deficit this year might go beyond 5,000MW, making it the worst summer so far.”