An Indian farmer and his son walk over their parched paddy field on the outskirts of Agartala. —AFP/File photo

THE monsoons may be seasonal winds of the Indian Ocean, but there are accompanied by rain. The subcontinent comprising India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are dependent on them.

Nearly two-thirds of the population of the three countries live in the countryside. More rain makes their life a little easier, less of it pushes them further to the edge.

I do not know about Pakistan or Bangladesh. But the crisis in India is deep. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has officially declared that the monsoons have failed. As many as 141 districts, nearly one-third of the country, have been badly affected.

The worst-hit states are Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana, Jharkand and West Bengal. Punjab is slightly better off because of the canals and water pumps.

Bihar has put 26 districts out of 36 in the drought-stricken area. Maharashtra’s Vidarbha, perennially caught between dismal poverty and farmers’ debt-suicides, has had no rains for the third year in a row. In terms of crops, paddy has not been sown over a huge acreage. India consumes more rice than wheat.

If rains fail the current kharif crop, the moisture in the land for the rabi crop will be affected. The prime minister, who convened a meeting of the state chief secretaries, has emphasised that contingency plans be prepared to deal with the drought.

Unfortunately, most of these officers do not know the countryside. They sit in their air-conditioned offices in state capitals and prepare plans which look good on paper but fail on the field. Most stocks of wheat and rice are lying in the open and at least 25 per cent must have gone to waste.

Despite drought in one area or the other, New Delhi is found wanting whenever there is a large-scale scarcity. It has been suggested again and again that dependence on the rains should be decreased. Even after 62 years of independence, 60 per cent of the agricultural land is not irrigated.

New Delhi has announced an allocation of Rs25,000 crore to meet the drought while the package to bail out Air India is Rs20,000 crore. Come to think of it, what is described as Bharat is neglected by India.

Industrial growth cannot make up for the failure of crops. The West has done it otherwise. We have to realise that poverty has to be eliminated through hard work, not the use of force or the deepening of religious faith. Industry would have to play a bigger role.

Steps to grow more food are linked with the land. Farmers have to be motivated to put in their best. India introduced some land reforms nearly five decades ago. It needs another dose to reduce the highest holding of 18 acres per individual so that land is available to the landless.

Pakistan continues to be a feudal society where both President Asif Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani possess hundreds of acres of land. Once I asked a leading landlord in Sindh if he knew how much land he owned. He was frank enough to admit that he had no idea but took pride that two railway stations were located on it.

Bangladesh may not have big zamindars. Still the inequality in holdings is too glaring to be ignored.

The Mahbub Ul Haq Human Development Centre in Pakistan has pointed out in its 2008 report that the number of deprived people in South Asia in terms of income, health and education has remained more or less the same over the last 10 years.

‘The region continues to be home to about one half of the world’s illiterate adults and about an equal proportion (47 per cent) of the world’s poor defined on the basis of people living below $1 a day….’

In India, however, things are slightly better because the base is $2 per day. Yet 70 per cent of the population is stuck at that income, many even below. The drought will affect them the most.

The three countries could coordinate their efforts on climate and ecology. I do not know why the Indian meteorological department fails every year to predict the rains. In January, the department said that the monsoons were normal. But its forecast, as usual, turned out to be wrong. Should crores of rupees be wasted on a set-up which is dependent on hunches and out-of-date methods?

In the midst of a food crisis, New Delhi’s export of rice does not make sense. There has been a ban since October 2007. As much as 10 lakh tonnes of rice have been exported on ‘human grounds’ to African countries. The ships carrying the rice were diverted to other destinations. Some Rs250 crore has been earned by many hands, including government servants. Had the matter not been raised in parliament, the scandal would not have come to light.

New Delhi is reluctant to order an inquiry because it is still ‘studying the files’. The pressure of politicians and vested interests has seen to it that the government continues to do so.

Already the bad news is that India’s growth rate has gone down by one to two per cent. But if the rains fail again in winter, the growth rate may go down by three to four per cent.

The worst situation was in 1988 when even water and fodder had to be taken to distant places. India recovered from that crisis. There is no reason why it will not do so this time. But the coordination with our neighbouring countries could be better because the entire region is dependent on agriculture.

The writer is a leading journalist based in Delhi.