With hundreds of thousands fleeing the fighting, a humanitarian disaster looms - AP/File photo.

MOST of the fallout of the military operation in Malakand Division is not unexpected but its scale has perhaps exceeded official estimates. Unless the government can effectively cope with the side effects of its prescription, the whole effort at overcoming terrorism and militancy could miscarry.

The humanitarian issues raised by the Malakand operation now pose the single-most critical challenge to the administration. Several hundred thousand people have fled their homes in the vast conflict zone and their number is rising day by day. The displacement of people is likely to continue, and gather greater momentum, as fighting spreads to the hitherto quieter parts of the region.

The government’s response has been quite prompt. A number of camps have been set up to provide shelter to the displaced people and more have been promised. The non-state sector, including the political parties, too has launched relief measures. However, the adequacy and efficacy of neither side’s exertions can be vouchsafed. Doubts on this score are rooted in memories of failures of and deficiencies in the management of disasters in the past.

Quite a few problem areas were identified during the audit of relief operations undertaken after the 2005 earthquake, the floods and seismic jolts in Balochistan, and the earlier displacement of people from Swat and Bajaur. These included the frequently noticed mismatch between the displaced people’s needs and the stuff thrown before them, bottlenecks in the distribution and delivery system that made full utilisation of aid impossible, and misappropriation of relief goods by corrupt managers, undisciplined middlemen and influential thugs among the disaster victims themselves.

It should not be too much to expect that the administration has learnt to better manage such matters.

However, there are limits to reliance on past experience. In addition to common needs, such as shelter and food, each group of displaced persons has needs and demands peculiar to itself. Women and children constitute a larger than usual proportion of the people displaced from Swat and Buner. That means a special effort is needed to ensure women’s access to relief goods, water supply and health facilities. A strong tradition of women’s segregation in Malakand Division prevents them from obtaining their due. And children suffer even more.

At the same time, due consideration should be paid to the fact that a sizable proportion of the displaced Malakand people were facing economic hardships for months before being forced to abandon their homes, that is, they have no means of helping themselves before reaching a camp. Ways should be found to offer possibilities of gainful employment to as many camp dwellers as possible. For civil works at camps and for running community facilities the labour available within the camps should be preferred to outsiders.

The authorities may also consider starting civil works, such as elementary school structures near the camps for displaced people. Likewise, definite steps will need to be taken to ensure that children in each camp are not subjected to abuse and exploitation by drug pushers or other criminals and the most effective way to do this is to set up schools and organise sports for them.

The authorities must also bear in mind that the displaced people are not victims of a natural disaster, whose options are usually limited. These people are suffering because they were caught in a conflict between two forces — one defending the state as it exists and the other striving to replace it with a structure of its own design. They have more options than are available to the affectees of natural disasters. Their loyalty to the state should not be taken for granted. Any failure to look after them as well as they expect could obliterate the line separating the state functionaries from the militants. Young men and adolescent boys will in particular be susceptible to seduction by militants if the state loses to them morally or in terms of the management of impressionable minds.

The second priority task is that while concentrating on the humanitarian requirements of the displaced people the government must not ignore the need to reduce the cost of the military operation and the consequential hardship to the people. The militants seem to enjoy the advantage of a hilly terrain and their familiarity with it while the security forces cannot move as easily and as fast as they must. Besides, the militants can melt into any gathering, including a camp population. Thus, the military operation may have to be carried out over a longer period than should be considered safe for the state. This implies the need for extra care in keeping non-combatant casualties at as low a level as possible.

Some thought should also be given to the fact that the security forces claim to be killing more militants than the number captured alive. The implication of an all-out conflict has suggestions of a competition in the resort to brutal means that can never add to any state’s credentials as a civilised entity.

It is not difficult to foresee that the security forces should succeed in dislodging the militants from their strongholds in Swat and Buner and pushing them into mountains away from sizable human settlements. The militants will then fan out to other Malakand districts and tribal agencies while many of them might decide to lie low in towns and villages. One does not know if it will be possible to prevent the militants from raiding settlements across indefensible lines, with or without the help of their colleagues hiding in towns.

The third priority issue before the government is the political management of the conflict. Thanks to the militants’ haste in revealing their colours the government received the benefit of broad support for its military operations. However, a couple of parties have not baulked at opposing the military action against murderous extremists. These elements will exploit any tactical mistake or excess by the security forces to upgrade the level of their support to the militants and even use the latter’s professions of faith to plead for reprieve for them. These allies of the militants pose no small a threat to Pakistan.

Some other political groups that have persuaded themselves to denounce the militancy might find it useful to express reservations about the way the military operation is conducted. Their complaints against not being taken into confidence before a major decision or even a tactical move could get more strident. Obviously, the government must find ways of basing its effort against extremism on the broadest possible national consensus.

A necessary condition for this should be a mechanism for regular inter-party consultation. The conference the prime minister has promised should be held sooner rather than later. For the future instead of calling large conferences now and then a multiparty parliamentary committee should be sufficient to guarantee the much-needed national cohesion in this hour of unfathomable peril. Greater respect for democratic norms, transparent integrity and unquestionable commitment to public good will be as effective, if not more, as guns in the days ahead.