KARACHI: Sustained flow of phutti (seed cotton) from the cotton fields of the Punjab and Sindh into ginning units has brightened prospects of a bumper cotton crop this season.

According to official figures, phutti arrival during the last fortnight (Nov 1 to 15) remained higher by 29.14 per cent having physical impact of higher arrival by 2.1 million bales against the corresponding period last year.

The country has so far harvested around 9.261 million bales as against 7.171 million bales produced in the corresponding period last season.

This indicates that so far the country has produced 2.1 million bales more compared to the same period last season.

However, cotton analysts said sporadic use of uncertified BT cotton in the Punjab and Sindh has resulted in early arrival as the crop matured in less time than other cotton qualities.

‘It is too early to say what will be the ultimate size of the crop, but so far higher arrival of phutti strongly indicates that it would be a bumper crop,’ observed a cotton analyst.

However, initial government estimates of the crop had been placed at 13.36 million bales which were later revised by the cotton committee to 12.6 million bales.

If flow of phutti is of any significance, it could be said that at the current rate of flow, which may even start declining in due course, the size of the crop should be above 15 million bales as against around 12 million bales of last season, cotton watchers added. Presently the world cotton scenario is highly volatile as China and US crops are short whereas India is going to have sustained crop size.

Due to short cotton crop in two major producing countries, prices of cotton in the world market have soared to 72 to 73 cents per lb (Rs4800 per maund).

The prices in the domestic market also moved higher after the start of new season on Sept 1 at Rs3200 to Rs3300 per maund and now have moved up to Rs4200 to Rs4350 per maund influenced by world higher prices, cotton market analysts said.

One strong point which may help push the crop size higher is the price which may attract growers to go for picking up to the last flower.

On many occasions in the past, growers in order to catch up with wheat sowing used to remove some of the standing cotton crop and even avoided third picking.

Due to highly volatile world cotton situation cotton yarn prices have also shot up and there is higher export which is creating shortage in the domestic market.

According to official figures, in the past there used to be around 4.5 million kgs of yarn export per month but the same has increased to 7.2 million kgs, market sources told Dawn.

Last year the spinners imported around 2.8 million bales (mostly Indian cotton) to meet their consumption which stands at 15 to 15.5 million bales. However, if crop size improves, it is expected that there would be lesser import of raw cotton.

The situation for domestic value-added textile industry has become altogether difficult because even on import of cotton yarn or cotton, the problem of higher price would not be resolved because prices of Indian cotton are also higher this season, sources said.

The official figures disclosed that the province continued to have a remarkable flow of phutti during Nov 1 to 15 at 3.371 million bales or 48.85 per cent higher over last year’s production of 2.267 million bales. This shows that Sindh has produced 1.103 million bales more, so far.

The Punjab has so far produced 5.890 million bales or 20.12 per cent higher against 4.903 million bales in the corresponding period last year. This indicates that the province has also produced around one million bales more this season.

Despite the fact that phutti flow remained sustained at 1.897 million bales during the last fortnight, a slight decline by 18,361 bales compared to last year’s 1.913 million bales is of significance as this indicates that signs of fall in the arrival have already started.

The spinners have accumulated huge stocks by lifting around 7.273 million bales so far as against 4.963 million bales purchased in the same period last year.

Exporters have also lifted larger quantity of cotton at 571,479 bales as against 183,354 bales in the corresponding period last year.

It is even interesting to note that ginners are holding lesser stocks this season at 1.416 million bales compared to 2.024 million bales held by them in the same period last year.