The ‘imminent’ operation in South Waziristan against the strongholds of the Baitullah Mehsud network finally appears to be under way. What lies ahead? Strictly speaking, an operation of sorts has been ongoing since the summer, with the army blockading the main routes in and out of the area, using aerial and artillery firepower to weaken some of the militants’ defences and target their leadership, and building up resources for a full-fledged ground offensive while trying to win the support of other armed groups in the Waziristan agencies.

Now, though, begins what’s been dubbed ‘the mother of all battles’. Facing off against the security forces is what is believed to be a 10,000-strong militia of primarily Mehsud tribesmen now led by Hakeemullah Mehsud with a rump of foreign/Uzbek militants and perhaps even elements of Al Qaeda.

However, while the army has held its cards close to its chest, it is quietly sending signals that it knows what’s required to get the job done and that the main operation may be concluded in a matter of weeks. It remains to be seen if the army’s predictions come true, but there is reason to be cautiously optimistic.

After the operations in Bajaur, Mohmand and Malakand division, the army will have improved its tactics and planning. Furthermore, unlike the terrain in Swat, the strongholds of the Mehsud network are believed to offer less room to hide. The army believes it has the area encircled and the fact that the battle zone does not abut Afghanistan means the army can interdict militants trying to flee across the border.

However, there are question marks over whether the North Waziristan escape routes have been plugged, and much may depend on whether the cooperation of militant leaders such as Hafiz Gul Bahadur turns out to be reliable or not. There is also the issue that in the fog of war even the best-laid military plans can go awry. The army insists that ‘material support’ and ‘resources’ have been supplied to the Mehsud network from hostile elements outside the country, which if true could mean some nasty surprises may be in store for the security forces.

Another problem is the capability of the militants to strike far away from their centre of gravity in South Waziristan and the potential of relentless suicide and fidayeen attacks to plunge the country into a state of fear. At the moment, the political will and public support is on the security forces’ side, but that could change if the country’s cities and towns are set on fire.