‘Taliban’s Orakzai positions bombed’ was a front-page headline in this newspaper yesterday and there is every indication that the ongoing campaign of aerial bombing will continue to chip away at the TTP’s strongholds in the area. Following Operation Rah-i-Nijat in South Waziristan, it has emerged that not just the top leadership of the TTP but even many of its foot soldiers had already escaped from South Waziristan and fled, it is believed, mainly to Kurram and Orazkai agencies.

Orakzai in particular has become the focus of analysts because of its links to Hakeemullah Mehsud. Hakeemullah is believed to have laid his claim to the TTP leadership slot on the back of the fiefdom he established in parts of Orakzai, making the agency a natural hiding place for TTP militants on the run. Hakeemullah’s second wife is also from Orakzai.

Aerial pounding alone, however, will not do much to disrupt the TTP that may be regrouping in Orakzai. Past experience has shown that without boots on the ground, the militants are by and large able to run their affairs unimpeded. Unlike the other tribal agencies in Fata, the armed forces have an advantage in Orakzai in that there are relatively few entry and exit points and the area could perhaps be sealed by as little as a brigade-sized force of the army. Using the Frontier Corps to do the job is more difficult because at the moment it cannot get past Bara in Khyber Agency where the Mangal Bagh-led Lashkar-i-Islam has linked up with the TTP to thwart the FC.

However, and this is where it gets tricky, the army’s strategy thus far has been to shut down TTP strongholds sequentially, building up forces and planning for months before entering a new area. While there is no doubt that the army’s strategy has at least been successful in terms of clearing and holding several parts of Fata and northwest Pakistan, a central question has yet to be answered: can a sequential ground campaign in Fata defeat the militants or is it dragging out a campaign that could otherwise be quicker in achieving full-spectrum success? There are no easy answers, in part because the army still seems to be learning about the TTP’s strategies for survival. At the very least, though, the army should be looking at adjusting its strategy against an enemy that is extremely canny.