The government’s frantic diplomacy to defuse the domestic opposition to the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act of 2009 has yielded an ‘explanatory statement’ from the US Congress that attempts to allay concerns here that the Act will undermine Pakistan’s sovereignty and national interests. ‘There is no intent to, and nothing in this Act in any way suggests that there should be, any US role in micromanaging internal Pakistani affairs, including the promotion of Pakistani military officers or the internal operations of the Pakistani military.’ Success snatched from the jaws of defeat by the government, then? The answer depends on whether the issue is analysed from a political or a strategic perspective.
Arguably, on the political side, the government may be able to win enough support for the Act in parliament now, which will allow the money to start flowing once the appropriations process is completed. And given that the Pakistan Army has also indicated its intention to defer to parliament that should mean the army will abide by whatever the decision of the elected representatives of the people.
Yet, the fiasco over the Kerry-Lugar aid and ‘conditionalities’ has exposed problems in the domestic sphere that will take a lot of savvy to resolve. For one, the decision-making process of the state appears to be in tatters. Parliament was kept out of the loop and potentially influential bodies such as the cabinet committee on defence were not involved. For another, the army has publicly intervened and contradicted the government, which bodes ill for civil-military relations. If history is any guide, more than a handful of such controversies and the democratic order itself can come under attack.
On the strategic side, the uproar over the Kerry-Lugar bill has exposed continuing differences in both the US and Pakistani establishments. Quetta, Muridke and nuclear black-marketing crept into the Act because there is a significant camp in the US, including the Obama administration, that believes Pakistan is first and foremost a part of the problem, and not necessarily part of a cooperative solution to regional problems. Meanwhile, here in Pakistan there is a camp that firmly believes the US is out to undermine the country’s interests. Cooperation between the two states will continue, but so will the dissent of hawks in both countries.
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