ISLAMABAD: A plan prepared by the Planning Commission for the 2009-10 fiscal year suggests a growth target of 3.3 per cent. It will be considered by the Annual Planning Coordination Committee at a meeting on Friday.

However, official documents say that the actual growth will depend on the performance of three major sectors — agriculture, manufacturing and services.

The documents say that the monetary expansion will be in line with the projected growth of 3.3 per cent. The government has also set CPI inflation target at 9 per cent, less than half of the 20 per cent in the current fiscal.

The trade deficit for the next fiscal year is estimated at $8.8 billion with exports of $19.9 billion and imports declining to $28.7 billion from $30.2 billion in the current fiscal.

The current account deficit has been projected at $9.5 billion which is close to $9.4 billion of the current fiscal. The remittances are expected to stand at $7 billion next year.

The documents estimate that the growth in agriculture would be 3.8 per cent, in manufacturing sector 1.8 per cent and in services sector 3.9 per cent.

The Planning Commission estimates that the GDP at the current market prices would increase by 10 per cent.

The documents say that the real challenge will be to revive the manufacturing sector that has shown a negative growth of more than 7.7 per cent during the first nine months of the current fiscal year. The growth in manufacturing sector is estimated at 1.8 per cent, but it will be possible only with smooth supply of energy to industries and adequate incentives for export competitiveness.

The large scale manufacturing is estimated to grow by 1 per cent against the negative growth in the current fiscal.

The services sector is likely to grow by 3.9 per cent with wholesale and retail trade growing by 3.3 per cent and finance and insurance by 3 per cent.

The total investment in the next fiscal is expected to be 20 per cent of the GDP. The national saving is projected to be 14.7 per cent, implying that it would be used to finance almost 74 per cent of investments. The remaining 26 per cent will be financed by other sources.

The total public sector investment is expected at 4.7 per cent of GDP.