NECESSARY as it had become to fight the militants in Malakand division, the military option was always going to have severe consequences on the civilian population of the area.

At the moment, the immediate plight of the IDPs and the need for relief operations has preoccupied the state and its international allies. However, already there are disturbing signs of the tough road ahead for the IDPs even if they can return to their homes sooner rather than later. AFP has reported that the IDPs ‘fear hardship and hunger as crops spoil in untended fields, with aid agencies warning that it could take years for farmers to recover.’ Wheat, maize and vegetables – subsistence crops for Malakand’s poor farmers – are all set to rot and deal another devastating blow to the region’s economy.

The problem is that the inability to harvest the crop will not only leave the people wholly reliant on food aid, but they will also be unable to earn any money to pay for the resources needed to sow the next crop. This means that even if the military operation could be wrapped up in the next few weeks or months, the people of Malakand will still need a great deal of help from the state for the foreseeable future. The fact is, after the implosion of the tourism economy in the country’s northwest, the latest blow to the other main source of subsistence for the region’s population has for all intents and purposes created an economic void – a dangerous situation in an area where a counter-insurgency is being fought.

State planners will have to address the economic plight of the people in the northwest or else risk the population embracing the militants in order to survive. If the choice is between survival and starvation, the people will make the rational choice and turn to cash-rich militants, who may seek to hide among the population and drag the state into a drawn-out guerrilla war. Of course, none of this is unexpected – the military operation was always going to severely impact the local economy – but it does highlight the fact that a successful counter-insurgency campaign continues long after the guns have fallen silent. In this regard, it is good that the government is at least thinking along the right lines; the ‘3R’ approach – relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction – is a sensible one. However, there’s many a slip ’twixt cup and lip; having a plan is very different from implementing it. The IDPs should not be left to fend for themselves when they return home.