June 17, 2006

Economic progress of any country is highly dependent on affordable and reliable energy sources and on an efficient power supply which is necessary for lighting, heating, cooking and communications, besides industrial growth. Wrong policies and suspension of energy supply leads to instability as well as to economic losses.

For improving the quality of life and minimising poverty, low-cost supply of energy, especially electricity, plays an important role. Low-cost electricity can be generated by following suitable policies for regulating the energy mix.

Today, Pakistan is facing an energy crisis which manifests itself in the form of disruption of electricity supply in major cities like Karachi and Islamabad. Moreover, increasing prices of gasoline, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas promote instability in the energy sector.

There are several reasons behind the energy crisis which is getting worse by the day. Immature policies of previous governments have led us to this situation.

To deal with the shortage of electricity, some major initiatives should have been taken in the 1990s. But no one took responsibility and now the crisis has deepened. Recovery would require years, not days.

According to the BP statistical review for 2005, consumption of primary energy for 2004 in Pakistan was 47.2Mtoe (million tonnes oil equivalent) with an increase of 2.6 per cent on the previous year. The prime energy resources are natural gas, oil, hydroelectricity, coal and nuclear energy.

The shares of these resources in primary energy consumption are: natural gas, 48.94 per cent; oil, 30.50 per cent; hydroelectricity, 12.92 per cent; coal, 6.78 per cent; and nuclear energy, 1.06 per cent.

The proven natural gas reserves are 28.2 trillion cubic feet which are sufficient for the country’s energy requirements for just 34.4 years at the existing rate of consumption. The consumption and production of natural gas in our country are 25.7 and 23.2 billion cubic metres, respectively.

Exploration can lead to more reserves. However, for the next 30 years we will have to think and work towards a long-lasting energy supply.

In the case of oil, we are already facing a critical situation. Oil consumption in the country is 365,000bbl/day while the production is just 63,000bbl/day. Proven reserves of oil are 341.8 million bbl. We depend heavily on imported supplies for oil. About 80 per cent of the oil requirement is fulfilled from external agencies.

Hydroelectricity, as a renewable energy source, also has an important role to play in our energy mix. Its consumption in 2004 stood at 6.1Mtoe. Renewable resources like wind energy and hydroelectricity itself would be helpful in reducing our dependence on finite and imported energy resources.
 

However, renewables can also be unsuccessful in stabilising energy supply. For instance, wind energy is expensive and depends a lot on weather conditions. Similarly, generation of hydropower demands enough rainfall to keep reservoirs full.

The consumption of nuclear energy was 0.5Mtoe in 2004, accounting for 1.06 per cent of the total energy required. Nuclear energy largely depends on resource availability but sometimes political acceptability is much more important. Nuclear safety and secure disposal of nuclear waste are key factors in this regard.

The last and the most neglected contributor to our energy mix is coal, which provides perhaps the only way to a safer and independent energy system. Proven reserves of Pakistani lignite are 3050 million tonnes, with reserve-to-production ratio of more than 500 years.

Thus, we have great resource potential in the form of coal — the most secure source of energy. Coal’s share in the energy mix is less than 7 per cent which is an unreasonable and alarming figure for a country having huge reserves of this fossil fuel.

We are number one in the world vis-à-vis coal deposits, yet we import 80 per cent of oil and are planning to import gas from external sources for our power and energy requirements. A chemist, Liebig, once declared: “A nation’s industrial pre-eminence may be measured by its consumption of sulphuric acid.” Today, in my opinion, he would have said, “A country’s economic and social progress may be measured by the share of coal in its energy mix.”

In support of my claim let me give you a table, from which you may easily understand the importance of coal in any energy mix.

Today, coal-fired electricity drives the economies of the two most populous and fastest growing countries in the world — China and India — besides a number of key industrial economies such as the US and Germany.

Coal is favoured as a source of energy due to the following reasons:

1. Coal resources are large and available for a long time;

2. It is an affordable source of energy;

3. It does not need special security or high pressure pipelines for transportation;

4. Coal-based power is well-established and reliable;

5. Coal-based power is not dependent on weather conditions, and;

6. Coal prices are more stable than oil and gas prices.

There is no doubt that several technical and environmental concerns relate to coal. But these problems do have solutions and we will have to follow these solutions instead of increasing our import bills because the Pakistani nation has already been paying huge bills. We will have to pay even more in the future, or continue to face disruptions in supply.

Pakistani coal’s high sulphur content is the first impediment to its wide use. Technologies are available today to minimise sulphurous emissions, such as Flue Gas Desulphurisation (FGD) and advanced combustion technologies like Pressurised Pulverised Coal Combustion (PPCC), Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle and Supercritical and Ultrasupercritical Technology.

These technologies work efficiently and facilitate the reduction of sulphurous emissions. Moreover, technologies for the desulphurisation of coal prior to its combustion are advancing rapidly.

Novel techniques like microbial desulphurisation of coal are playing an important role in getting rid of the total sulphur in coal, including organic compounds, which are considered difficult to remove. Some research on microbial desulphurisation of coal is continuing even in Pakistan.

The second major impediment to the use of Pakistani coal is its mineral matter content which generates waste/ash upon combustion. The generation of waste can be minimised both prior to and during coal combustion.

Coal cleaning provides high quality coal, the combustion of which leads to higher thermal efficiencies. High efficiency coal combustion technologies can also help in minimising waste. Sometimes, the waste is reprocessed in manufacturing construction materials, depending on the nature of the waste material.

Global concerns regarding the use of coal are centred on carbon dioxide emissions. Carbon dioxide is the leader of the compendium of greenhouse gases. Different projects are being run all over the developed countries to increase the efficiencies of coal-fired power plants in order to minimise emissions.

Benefits can be obtained from these research projects. Modern trends for the utilisation of coal should be followed. In future, coal will not be used as such to produce heat and energy.

Conversion technologies are steering the world towards another route which is the production of environment friendly fuels from coal, like methanol, ethanol, dimethyl ether and hydrogen. Thus, efficient utilization of coal in Pakistan demands suitable manpower and the deployment of coal technologies which is not difficult.

Modern technologies are leading to safer uses of coal. Recently historic agreements were signed between the US and India on energy which, it is understood in Pakistan, are just about civil nuclear technology. The two countries have also announced the signing of another agreement — for the FutureGen initiative.

FutureGen is a ten-year-project to follow advanced coal gasification technology, hydrogen from coal, power generation, and carbon dioxide capture and geologic storage. This prototype plant will emit virtually no pollutants, solid wastes will be converted to valuable products and carbon dioxide will be captured before they escape into the atmosphere.

In this $1 billion project, India will contribute $10 million. All this discussion about FutureGen with respect to India indicates the reasonable and sensible energy policies of our neighbouring country. After the agreements between the US and India, we have started to weigh our energy requirements and are looking towards others for civil nuclear technology.

No one is going to offer us this technology. We will have to meet our energy requirements from our own resources. Instead of projecting our energy needs on the basis of nuclear technology, we should take keen interest in mega-projects like FutureGen which are politically acceptable as they are meant specifically for coal.

Coal does not need any type of political acceptability. In this way, we will be able to utilise our coal resources efficiently.

Finally, power generation and energy mix of Pakistan demand increased share of coal. We should largely depend on our indigenous resources of coal and other fossil fuels instead of relying on external energy resources in order to achieve energy security and stability. We will have to work diligently to review the share of each component in the energy mix, with coal playing a leading role.

In view of the above, it is felt that revolutionary steps leading to energy reforms should be undertaken immediately in Pakistan. If this is done, we will be enjoying better standards of living five to 10 years from now. Otherwise, we will be facing the same problems we have been facing since the last two decades.

The writer has an MSc in coal technology

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