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Mobile communication comes of age
Since the end of the 19th century, when Marconi and Hertz demonstrated the feasibility of radio transmissions, man has endeavoured to fulfil the dream of multimedia communication enabling us to communicate universally with anyone, anywhere, any time, through a range of multimedia services.
Data transfer services are seen as a key growth area for wireless mobile communications. The huge growth in the internet market is seen as a key driver for the wireless market. Wireless access protocol is a defined standard that allows wireless devices to efficiently access the internet. Providing mobile internet access is seen as a service that mobile users would be willing to pay for.
Current wireless systems (GSM, IS-136, and IS-95) have relatively low data rate capabilities. For example, data rate achievable over GSM is only 14.4Kbps. Wireless users consider this a significant barrier to the successful adoption of data services. After the first generation mobile systems AMPS (advanced mobile phone system) subscriber growth increased the need for more capacity grew. This resulted in the need for the second-generation cellular system that could provide additional capacity. GSM, IS-136, & IS-95 are examples of the 2G, or second-generation systems.
The need to provide higher data rates and multimedia services is the driving factor behind 3G 2.5G which is GSM/GPRS (General Radio Packet Service) is considered an interim step to 3G. 2.5G provide existing GSM systems with an upgrade path to higher data rates. The goal of 2.5 G was to provide GSM and I-136 with a path to supporting the basic 3G (3rd Generation systems) data rate of 384kbps.
WCDMA technology
Third-generation mobile in the shape of UMTS (universal mobile telecommunications system) with WCDMA (wideband code division multiple access) as radio access technology is already a reality.
With the first European networks already live and an increasing number of commercial launches anticipated during 2003, UMTS/WCDMA offers business users and consumers an evolution of their current mobile experience to add video and other exciting new services.
About 120 licences have already been awarded to operators worldwide, specifying WCDMA radio access technology that builds on GSM to provide a clear evolutionary path for more than 80 per cent of the world’s wireless market.
In terms of initial capital expenditure as well as ongoing operational costs, WCDMA technology offers new and existing operators alike a more economical platform to cope with projected growth in demand for voice and data services.
For customers already enjoying voice and data services via 2G and 2.5G, UMTS/WCDMA delivers even more of what they like doing already . . . faster, more efficiently and with new possibilities.
What are the implications of this continued growth in mobile subscriptions, the changing mix of voice and data revenues? This article aims to answer some of these questions by providing an overview of the market, technology, regulatory and service issues faced by network operators and manufacturers as well as the developers of mobile applications as they prepare their own 3G customer offerings. In particular, it considers the benefits to industry and end users of a roadmap to, and evolution of UMTS/WCDMA.
Typically, a WCDMA base station provides up to 10 times the traffic capacity compared with GSM, at a cost premium of between 1 and 1.5 times that of GSM. This implies that WCDMA technology provides incremental network capacity at a cost approximately eight times lower than that of GSM.
Compared with further investment solely in GSM (at 1800MHz) and GPRS, WCDMA technology as used for UMTS is more cost-efficient in handling future voice and traffic growth in the case of new and existing mobile operators. WCDMA has the potential of 20-30 per cent lower capital expenditure compared with GSM in the initial coverage phase.
In terms of base station sites, 60 per cent fewer sites are needed to achieve initial voice coverage, and 40 per cent fewer are needed for data coverage. Hardware cost per voice-channel for WCDMA is less than one-half the cost of GSM. Mobile networks built using WCDMA are thus a cheaper alternative than 2G — as well as providing a more flexible, high capacity platform to enable new voice and data revenues in the long term.
Global growth
The mobile market is growing rapidly. The numbers of mobile users are almost 1.2 billion worldwide — an increase of approximately 20 per cent since 2001, with 500,000 new subscribers being added each day. With some 420 million customers, Asia Pacific boasts more mobile users than any other region, followed by Europe, North America, Latin America and Africa/Middle East. While predictions vary, it is widely anticipated that the number of users worldwide may double to more than 2 billion some time between 2007 and 2010 — representing a mobile handset for every third person on this planet.
While the total number of mobile subscribers worldwide has already passed the 1 billion mark, the customer experience is itself changing. Data services — SMS (short message service), MMS (multimedia messaging service), downloadable ring-tones, images and games, news and information sources, mobile chat and internet-style portals — are enhancing operators’ service portfolios and driving new revenues. In parallel with this continued growth and evolution in mobile penetration and usage, handsets are becoming more diverse and sophisticated with the addition of color screens, in-built cameras, PDA-like functions and Bluetooth wireless connectivity as well as support for MMS, high-speed data access and even downloadable applications such as games.
Mobile handset shipments continue to outperform virtually every other computing and personal information device: 423 million handsets were sold in 2002 - an increase of 6 per cent from 400 million units in 2001 and higher than forecast. Alongside the burgeoning popularity of color screens, another key indicator in this shift towards more versatile and appealing terminals is the growth in sales of handsets with cameras over the next few years. Some 18 million mobile handsets with integrated digital cameras were sold during 2002, a figure that is predicted to at least double over the next twelve months. With the advent of UMTS, terminals will evolve even further beyond their origins of “just voice”.
A trillion-dollar opportunity
It has been predicted that mobile operators will earn a total of more than $1 trillion in customer revenues during the decade after full commercial launch of 3G services. Of this enormous market opportunity, it is anticipated that the largest revenue generators will be voice; personalized access to information and entertainment services (“infotainment”); mobile access to the Internet and corporate networks; and MMS. Other contributors to operators’ revenues will include Location Based Services and “Rich Voice” — an extension of normal voice communications that overlays the simultaneous transmission of photos, graphics, video, maps, documents and other forms of data. New services and applications created by 3G will also exhibit distinct regional trends in terms of user take-up. An example is the Asia Pacific region where it is predicted that annual 3G revenues will reach $118 billion by 2010, with “customized infotainment” — personalized access to news, sports results, gaming and other forms of information and entertainment — representing 36 per cent of all Asian 3G revenues, ahead of simple voice (28 per cent), mobile access to the Internet and corporate networks (14 per cent) and MMS (13 per cent). Europe and North America show somewhat different predictions.
A number of 3G services for a variety of uses is available; for instance:
Multimedia content - including graphics, video clips, music, locator services, games and directories formatted especially for mobile handsets.
Multimedia messaging - Any combination of photos, video clips, audio clips, graphics or text can be sent to another mobile handset, PC or other device. “Mobile broadcasting” of media (such as news) to many terminals simultaneously is similar to cell broadcasting for SMS.
Internet/extranet access: Mobile access to e-mail, rich web content, corporate network resources, etc.
Instant messaging: “real-time” text-based messaging via the internet.
Location based services: LBS could allow subscribers to locate the nearest restaurant, fuel station or shop of their choice.
Rich Voice: Two-way real-time enhanced voice, video and other forms of data. Presence — enabling a caller to see if a contact is available or “on-line” to receive calls or messages — will promote even greater usage of voice telephony. “Push-to-Talk” is a voice communication service similar to CB radio or walkie-talkie that provides simultaneous group communications, one way at a time, at the touch of a button.
It must not be forgotten that in many parts of the world the mobile handset is used as a substitute for fixed phones. This has arisen because of the relative ease, low cost and speed of deploying wireless access, compared with fixed copper or fiber. There are already hundreds of millions of subscribers who access basic telephony services in this way - a number that may soon increase to billions. Mobile services for personal and business use will also evolve in these emerging markets in parallel with other more economically developed regions. Additional capacity is thus needed here in order to provide substitution for fixed access to the Internet. By being able to provide access to the Internet and the World Wide Web for the first time, UMTS/IMT-2000 can play a major role in emerging regions in improving commercial opportunities, health care and education.
UMTS evolution
Evolution of UMTS is already being considered. The WCDMA radio access technology will be enhanced to support High Speed Downlink and Uplink Packet Access (HSDPA), enabling transmission at speeds of up to 14.2Mbit/s. Another enhancement is the IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS). It enables real-time, person-to-person services, such as voice or video telephony, to be provided by means of packet switched technology in common with non-real-time information and data services. Yet further advantages will come in the longer term from the ability to interwork interactively with other networks such as Digital Video Broadcasting (DVB) and Digital Audio Broadcasting (DAB), and to take advantage of the content offerings that can be delivered efficiently to small form factor terminals.
There will be other complementary technologies in order to provide really high data rates and very high user densities, such as would be found in conference centres, including Wireless Local Area Networks (WLAN), which can complement UMTS in the future, offering theoretical bit-rates up to 55 Mbit/s. Although public WLAN networks will also be deployed independently from the mobile networks, there are built-in advantages for the mobile operators that come from the ability to provide mobility management, subscriber management, high security and roaming.
Much has been written about revolutionary new capabilities and evolutionary development. A few, such as the WCDMA air interface of UMTS and the IP Multimedia Subsystem, represent revolutionary advances in capability. However, the approach is always to provide for the enhancements by adding platforms to existing networks and by upgrading existing platforms rather than discarding equipment and starting over again. This applies particularly to the GSM core network, which remains the basis of the system throughout the evolution.
Roadmap for Pakistan
The industry has charted an evolutionary path from 2G (GSM) to 3G (UMTS) in a logical, structured and standard way. There are some available options for GSM operator in Pakistan as well. For instance, starting with GPRS (General Radio Packet Service) and/or EDGE (Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution) and then on to WCDMA. GPRS serves as a natural intermediate step, in so far as the core network is the same as in needed for UMTS. GSM operators who do not have new IMT-2000 spectrum can evolve by deploying EDGE as an upgrade to their GSM/GPRS networks.
Standardization activities within the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), which have already helped foster the growth of new technologies in world such as mobile telephony and the Internet, are now being put to use in defining the building blocks of the emerging global information infrastructure, and designing advanced multimedia systems which handle deftly a mix of voice, data, audio and video signals.
Professor Dr B S Chowdhry
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