November 3, 2005

The establishment of the Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) by the government is a timely first step.

One doubly needs to make sure that all necessary steps are taken to ensure that no design and material is used in reconstruction which is unsuitable for structures in earthquake-prone areas.

Most of Pakistan is geologically prone to earthquakes of high magnitude. The web-site of US Geological Survey (USGS) with respect to the Earthquake Information for Pakistan states:

“Earthquakes and active faults in northern Pakistan and adjacent parts of India and Afghanistan are the direct result of the Indian subcontinent (Indian plate) moving northwards at a rate of about 40 mm/year (l. 6 inches/yr) and colliding with the Eurasian continent. This collision is causing an uplift that produces the highest mountain peaks in the world including the Himalayan, the Karakoram, the Pamir and the Hindu Kush ranges. As the Indian plate moves northward, it is being subducted or pushed beneath the Eurasian plate.

“Much of the compressional motion between these two colliding plates has been and continues to be accommodated by slip on a suite of major thrust faults that are at the Earth’s surface in the foothills of the mountains and dip northward beneath the ranges. These include the Main Frontal thrust, the Main Central thrust, the Main Boundary thrust and the Main Mantle thrust. These thrust faults have a sinuous trace as they arc across the foothills in northern India and into northern Pakistan. In detail, the modern active faults are actually a system of faults comprised of a number of individual fault traces. In the rugged mountainous terrain, it is difficult to identify and map all of the individual thrust faults.”

The map in Figure 1 shows the relative position of the Indian, the Eurasian and the Arabian plates in Pakistan. It may be noted that the point where these three plates meet is situated on the Makran coast, west of Karachi. It may be noted that the severe earthquake activity is concentrated in the Northern Areas, Azad Kashmir, NWFP, Baluchistan and Southern Sind. The information given on the USGS web-site shows that historically most of the earthquakes in Pakistan have been at a very shallow depth thus causing great structural damage.

The whole country, excluding a small belt in south-western Punjab along the Indian border, is potentially subject to medium to high magnitude earthquakes. The Chaman Fault runs right down to the Makran Range and consequently most of Baluchistan and Sind can experience high magnitude earthquakes. The Quetta earthquake of 1935 of Mw 8.1 was caused by a movement on this fault as were the earthquakes of Mach in 1931 of Mw 7.1, the earthquake off Makran coast on November 21, 1945 of Mw 7.9 and on August 5, 1947 off Makran coast of Mw 7.2. In the earthquake of 1945, waves of up to 15 meters were generated and over 2000 people were killed in spite of there being hardly any habitation in the area in that period.

In the earthquake in the Santa Cruz mountains in California, USA, which was of IX intensity and 6.9 magnitude in 1989, only 63 people were killed and 3,757 were injured and in the Cape Mendocine earthquake which was of 7.2 magnitude in 1992, there were no fatalities with only 95 people being injured. On the other hand, in India in the Bhuj earthquake of 2001 of 7.7 magnitude, over 20,000 people were killed and 166,836 injured, and over 339,000 buildings destroyed. Similarly in Iran in the Bam earthquake of 2003, over 26,200 people were killed and about 30,000 injured. The figures for Turkey are no different from India and Iran.

The main reason for the significantly low fatalities in the USA and extremely high ones in India and Iran is because the Building Code in America has provisions for earthquake resistance which are very strictly enforced. The US has a uniform building code for the whole country. In contrast, in India, Iran and Turkey either there were no significant provisions for earthquake resistance or whatever provisions that were in the building codes were not strictly implemented and enforced. We need to understand and realize that earthquakes do not kill - they only shake the earth; it is the improper buildings made by man which collapse and kill and injure people.

In both Turkey and India building codes have been revised and suitable provisions have been made to ensure that the buildings in the earthquake-prone areas are of earthquake-resistant design.

At the moment we do not have the time to sit down and prepare a uniform building code for the whole country. To prepare a uniform building code for Pakistan on the model of the 1988 Uniform Building Code of USA (which took 10 years to enact) would take at least a year. It is therefore more feasible that the relevant provisions of the latest building code of India be implemented for the reconstruction work in NWFP and Azad Kashmir. The work on the proposed code should, however, be started as soon as possible.

It is significant and also quite sad that the Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) has been totally silent. One has seen no statement or warning giving details about the fact that most of the country can be subject to earthquakes of over MW 6.5. The web-site of GSP is full of self-praise, stating what they have achieved so far. There is only one map titled “Earthquake Data” on the web-site and details of a one-day seminar on Earthquake Preparedness. One gets more technical information on Pakistan from the web-site of USGS! Similarly, the web-site of the Geological Survey of India also gives detailed technical information on the probability of earthquakes in this region. The GSP if questioned will come up with the usual bureaucratic explanations and justifications. To the best of one’s knowledge there is only one facility for recording earthquakes in the country and that is in Quetta which was established after the 1935 earthquake. Here again the GSP and the universities have failed to do their duty. We need to establish at the earliest seismic centres at several locations in the country.

The engineering universities in the country, particularly the Structural Engineering departments have failed in developing standards for structures in earthquake prone areas. The only exception is the NED Engineering University which has the Cowasjee Earthquake Study Centre which publishes a bi-annual newsletter giving details of the technical studies carried out by them. The work of Dr Rafeeqi and Dr Lodhi of this centre on earthquake-resistant buildings has already been implemented in the Northern Areas by the Aga Khan Foundation.

The other exception is the NWFP Engineering and Technology University where there is not only awareness but a plan to establish a state-of-the-art earthquake centre under the leadership of Dr Akhtar Naeem who is assisted by Dr Qaiser Ali, a specialist in earthquake engineering, and a team of five people with Phds. This is the only group which at the moment is busy collecting data from the collapsed buildings. If this data is not collected immediately this most valuable technical information will be lost forever. It is therefore necessary for other universities to coordinate with Dr. Naeem and send teams to urgently carry out this essential work. In Isra University Hyderabad, Dr Ghulam Hussain Siddiqi has also been engaged in developing low cost earthquake-resistant designs.

After the Bhuj earthquake of 2001, an enormous amount of research work has been done in India. They have a state-of-the-art earthquake simulation facility in Bangalore where earthquake resistant structures are tested. Several designs based on locally available materials have been developed, tested and various buildings based upon these designs have been built. We need to take advantage of all this research in our reconstruction work rather than depending upon the expensive and unsuitable prefabricated structures from western countries.

The establishment of ERRA is an essential and important step in the right direction. However, it is equally important and imperative that a commission be established headed by a Supreme Court Judge, to enquire after and establish the causes and reasons for the high casualties and the collapse of most of the buildings in the earthquake-affected areas of NWFP and Azad Kashmir. The purpose of this commission should not be to carry out a witch-hunt and find scapegoats, but to determine what should now be done and what we failed to do. It is suggested that the proposed commission should have eight members consisting of two eminent geologists, two structural engineers with work on design of earthquake-resistant buildings (from the engineering universities), one person from the civil society, an architect and an engineer from the Corp of Engineers who should be ex-officio secretary of the commission. It is important that no person from GSP, CDA, KDA, LDA and similar organizations and the civil services be a member of this commission. This is necessary as these organizations have failed to do their duty and therefore will adversely influence the work of the proposed commission.

There appears to be a total lack of understanding in the press, the electronic media, the commentators and the politicians. Therefore, it is important to clarify and explain some technical aspects:

a) Meteorology is the science of the study of the atmosphere and not of the earth’s crust,

b) Geology is the science of the study of the earth’s crust, thus it deals with earthquakes. This is the appropriate science which deals with the regions prone to earthquakes.

c) Architects design the plan of the buildings to cater for its use.

d) The structural engineer designs the structure of a building to cater for the loads and stresses it is expected to endure. Therefore it is the appropriate branch of engineering for designing of structures for earthquake-prone areas.

The Prime Minister has indeed forcefully and unambiguously stated that it is the responsibility of the State to take care of the orphans and that no adoption shall be allowed. This is an absolutely correct and timely action. It is important, especially for girls, that for this work private organizations be associated. There are a number of dedicated organizations engaged in this work like Naunehal of Karachi which has been involved in such philanthropy for the last 40 years. The government has neither experience nor expertise in this field. It is therefore necessary to take advantage of the experience and expertise of these local institutions. It is also essential to exclude the foreign organizations and NGOs from this work. They neither understand our values nor our sensitivities.

Pakistanis both within the country and abroad have exhibited remarkable unity and warmth in coming forward to help their earthquake-stricken countrymen in the NWFP and Azad Kashmir. There are innumerable individuals and private organizations who are quietly doing relief work without any fanfare or publicity. We must recognize and coordinate their laudable efforts and, for once, ignore political considerations.

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