REMEMBER those long, mirror-lined, magic-filled tubes from our childhood? I would gaze into kaleidoscopes for hours, fascinated by the glittering patterns formed by the bits of glass. As you turned the tube slightly, flick!, the glass bits would tumble around and re-form into new designs.

These days, Pakistani politics resembles the same shifting forms: one day, Benazir Bhutto dominates the scene. Then comes the Supreme Court verdict on Nawaz Sharif’s appeal to return from exile, and flick!, it’s all change once more.

Given this state of utter fluidity, it would take a brave pundit to make any predictions about the final outcome. And while I am perfectly comfortable to make forecasts about 2047, I cannot pretend to have any insights into what the political landscape will look like by the end of this year.

But certain constraints on the principal actors are clear. For Musharraf, the uniform issue is more than symbolic. It is his command of the army that is the real source of his power, so his reluctance to relinquish this role is understandable. As soon as he takes off his uniform, he becomes just another retired general looking for a job. And God knows, we have more than enough of those around.

I would not be surprised if he were to agree to retire from the army after his re-election as president, and then go back on his word once he has got the necessary electoral votes. He has done this once before, remember. ‘The national interest’ is such a convenient phrase for adventurers to justify their power-grabs that it almost matches ‘the doctrine of necessity’ as an essential tool for coup-makers.

Nawaz Sharif, I suspect, has more than a few scores to settle. And what’s more, I am willing to bet that the Chaudhries of Gujrat fear his return far more than they do Benazir Bhutto’s. Not only do they risk losing their considerable power in Punjab, they are in real danger of having many real estate and other deals arrived at in the last few years re-opened. Other turncoats, too, will find that Nawaz Sharif is not as forgiving to his lotas as BB is to hers. Small wonder the PML-Q is dragging its feet over supporting the legislation necessary to make the deal with BB happen.

I would be surprised if BB has ever taken a bus in her life, but she seems to have missed this one. Given Musharraf’s unpopularity, anybody seen to be colluding with him is sure to lose votes. And in BB’s case, she is going to haemorrhage support within her own party. Several senior PPP leaders are on the verge of breaking ranks.

The problem is that no matter what she claims — and the national interest is often invoked — the general perception is that her untiring (and embarrassing) efforts to cut a deal with Musharraf are ultimately self-serving. She desperately wants to break out of the mesh of corruption cases she is entrapped in. Although her supporters feel she and her family have suffered enough on account of these allegations, many are outraged that she should be offering Musharraf a lifeline now that he is on the run.

But beyond her personal predilection, she seems to genuinely believe that if Musharraf is completely cornered, he might impose martial law. So by providing him with political cover, she feels the PPP would be a bridge for a switchover to a more democratic system. She also realises that given Pakistan’s seemingly permanent security issues, any civilian government will need to work closely with the army.

Whatever the motives that drive her into lengthy negotiations with Musharraf, the fact is that she has been effectively outflanked by Nawaz Sharif. By returning to Pakistan before her, he will have stolen her thunder. In addition, he has taken over her mantle as the main challenger to Musharraf and military rule. His own antecedents as the creation of Zia and the ISI are now long behind him, and he is increasingly being seen as the leader who will spearhead the fight against the present dispensation. “Sher aya!” is a slogan we can expect to hear ad nauseum in the next few months.

The ruling coalition of PML-Q and MQM see the return of BB and Nawaz Sharif as their worst nightmare. Overnight, they will lose their leverage in a transformed political scenario. And while the MQM might retain some of its power base in urban Sindh, the PML-Q will probably be wiped out. Their voters will switch to either Nawaz Sharif or the PPP in droves. And once they see which way the tide is going, party members, such as they are, are likely to desert the sinking ship. This has already begun, and the trend will continue until the rump Muslim League faction will find it hard to get candidates.

The backstage manager of the ongoing political drama is desperately trying to achieve a happy ending. But the United States, in wishing to broker a marriage made in heaven, is missing some key signals. Firstly, any politician seen as getting support from Washington is going to suffer at the polls, given the current level of anti-American sentiment rife in the country. So in trying to push a deal between Benazir and Musharraf, the Americans are not doing either of them any favours.

True, such a partnership would suit Washington admirably. With BB to rally the moderates while Musharraf takes on the Taliban, the Americans would have a dream team in place in Islamabad. But alas, real life is far messier, especially in this part of the world. The truth is that Musharraf is simply incapable of sharing power. In any case, power is a jealous mistress, and does not often permit more than one master.So how to assess what the immediate future holds for Pakistan? A couple of days ago, Khalid Hasan reported in the Daily Times that an astrologer had predicted that the next couple of months were to be very tricky ones for Musharraf, and that he may not remain president after the end of this year.

Somehow, this prediction does not exactly stun me.

But a friend who dabbles in astrology (and who is highly regarded by those who consult him) did surprise me the other evening when he said he saw Musharraf staying in power for another five years.So basically, you pay your money and you take your pick.