NWFP is reflecting the uncertainty prevalent in the country and the elections may yield a hung provincial assembly

The North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) government website has a page on politics. It offers little insight, but the tagline – “The Colours of Frontier: the Devout Nation, the Rising Nation” – accurately captures the flavour of local politics, a heady brew of religious and nationalist sentiment. However, as the February 2008 elections approach, it is not clear whether the populace of the province will opt for the religio-political parties or the more secular, nationalist ones. Indeed, observers say the province reflects the general uncertainty prevalent in the country, making it difficult to identify who the winners of the coming elections will be. Chances are that the polls will lead to a hung parliament.

For the last five years, the province has been ruled by a puritanical alliance of religious parties, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), that has delivered little more than billboards with women smeared in black, critics claim. Riding a crest of anti-US sentiment in 2002, the alliance grabbed 29 National Assembly seats from the NWFP while the Pakistan Muslim League – Quaid-e-Azam (PMLQ) won four and Pakistan Peoples Party – Sherpao (PPPS), two. In addition, the alliance won 52 seats in the provincial assembly out of a total of 99, while the PPPS won 10 seats, the Awami National Party (ANP), Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and PMLQ, eight each, and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf and Swabi Qaumi Mahaz won single seats. However, that scenario is set to change in 2008: analysts foresee nationalist and liberal parties making advances and regaining the ground they lost in 2002.

Apart from the alliance’s poor governance record, the fact that the MMA has come undone is also giving hope to the mainstream parties. The two dominant parties in the alliance, the anti-establishment Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and the pro-establishment Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam – Fazal (JUIF), have fallen out over the question of boycotting the election.

The rift between the JI and the JUIF will benefit the ANP in areas where the latter lost to the religio-political alliance in the last election, such as Charsadda, Swabi and Mardan. The nationalist party hopes to make up for its 2002 losses, as it is aware of the public dissatisfaction with the performance of the MMA in the last five years and with the military operation. In fact, all the mainstream parties are pointing fingers at General (retd) Pervez Musharraf and the MMA provincial government for the unrest in the province and the tribal areas. Along with the ANP, the PPP is also trying to make a comeback — the party was rejuvenated by the return of Benazir Bhutto and now realises that it can count on sympathy votes in the wake of the assassination of the PPP chairperson. The party is looking to bag seats in Peshawar, Nowshera, Mardan, Buner and in some southern and northern districts. However, observers feel that its electoral success cannot be taken for granted.

One reason for this is that these elections will witness a fight between the two main secular parties in the province — the PPP and the ANP. They will be each other’s arch rivals in the urban areas of the province. JUIF, on the other hand, is focusing on rural areas where it hopes to capture the religious and Pashtun vote. Independent analysts are of the opinion that the party may not find it easy to repeat its 2002 performance without the support or organisation of the JI, which played an important role in mobilising voters in urban areas. JUIF, however, dismisses such fears. Its leadership is counting on the religious vote bank in the region, which the party feels the JUIF can cash in on as it did in 2002. But analysts point out that as the religious and Pashtun vote banks overlap, in areas where there is a triangular fight between the PPP, ANP and the MMA, the PPP may race ahead of the other two.

But in the Frontier province all such assessments can come undone. After all, the 2002 sweep of the MMA caught more or less the entire country by surprise. These elections may be no different. In fact, many an election observer has already termed the February polls “rigged”, arguing that it is unlikely that the anti-establishment nationalist Pashtun parties will get a fair shot. “Musharraf needs a pliant partner rather than a powerful political opposition in NWFP that could scuttle his plans by demanding a political solution to the problem, as nationalist parties would most certainly do,” says a Peshawar-based observer. His views are echoed by others who are of the opinion that the establishment will want to keep the JUIF in power in the NWFP, rather than face popular political/nationalist forces answerable to the people, the majority of whom are overwhelmingly opposed to the fighting.

“This means ensuring continued military rule through ‘our man in civvies’ and a strengthening of right-wing elements in the government while alienating the secular Pashtun leadership in NWFP,” adds an analyst.

The security situation can also have another impact on the elections — it is likely to lead to a low voter turnout. The Election Commission, in fact, has already suggested delaying the polls in areas where the elusive militants are fighting a war of attrition against the military. In addition, pressure from the All Parties Democratic Movement, an opposition alliance of small regional, nationalist and religious parties that has announced a boycott of the elections, may keep some voters away.

Not that these elections or any other would deliver representative leadership in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas given the ban on political parties there. Militant leaders have moved in to fill the space. Taliban leaders in the tribal agencies of Bajaur and Waziristan plan to contest the election themselves or field relatives as candidates. Others, like the radical warlord Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan, are working on consolidating their control over the region rather than becoming a political force. This is a separate issue but one which Islamabad needs to consider sooner rather than later if it’s serious about resolving the extremism issue in the country’s north.

Nonetheless, such long term concerns will be addressed, if they ever are, after the February elections have taken place. That surely is the next step — and the most important one. The future of the country’s most volatile province, clearly, is closely linked with the results of these elections.

 

Seats Captured by Political Parties and Percentage Vote Share
Political Party	Seats Won	% of Total Votes
2002
PMLQ	4	14.26
PPP	–	9.97
MMA	29	46.73
PMLN	–	5.13
NA	–	0.82
ANP	–	9.39
Baloch Parties (various)	–	0.08
Other Parties	2	5.65
Independent	–	7.97
Total	35	100
1997
PMLN	15	34.72
PPP	–	10.18
MQM	–	0.12
ANP	10	19.89
JUIF	–	8.89
PPPSB	–	1.41
PTI	–	3.8
Baloch Parties (various)	–	0.08
Other Parties	–	4.98
Independent	1	15.93
Total	26	100
1993
PPP	5	15.06
PMLN	10	26.28
PMLJ	–	4.8
IJM	2	10.54
ANP	3	14.33
PIF	2	12.04
MDM	1	2.31
MQM	–	0.01
Baloch Parties (various)	–	0.13
Other Parties	2	4.42
Independent	1	10.08
Total	26	100
1990
IJI	8	24.84
PDA	5	22.23
ANP	6	14.64
JUIF	4	20.26
JUP	–	0.11
PAT	–	0.72
Baloch Parties (various)	–	0.14
Other Parties	–	0.69
Independent	3	16.37
Total	26	100
1988
PPP	9	23.74
IJI	8	27.51
JUIF	3	10.06
PAI	–	2.94
ANP	2	17.73
JUID	1	1.85
PMAI	–	0.07
Other Parties	–	1.13
Independent	3	14.97
Total	115	100