With the boycott of the nationalist parties, the voter turnout in Balochistan will likely be very low

On December 25, 2007, as the rest of the country was in the swing of election campaigns, newspaper front pages explained how the call for an election boycott would have the strongest impact in Balochistan. This province appears to be the base camp of all the political forces intent on making the February18 electoral exercise a failure: the nationalist parties, which play a crucial role in Balochistan’s ballot politics, are among the leading abstainers, though for their own separate reasons.

The biggest Pashtun nationalist party of the province – the Pakhtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) – and the representative party of the Baloch – the National Party (NP) – are staying away from the vote. Both parties are part of the truncated All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM). A loose alliance of various small and big parties, the APDM, had issued the call for a boycott to deny General (retd) Pervez Musharraf legitimacy for his controversial election, only to see Mian Nawaz Sharif, its patron-in-chief and head of the alliance’s largest component, the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz, subsequently ditch all those on board.

Two other notable parties with nationalist credos – the Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP) and the Balochistan National Party – Mengal (BNPM) – are also boycotting the polls in protest at the treatment meted out to their chiefs. JWP sees no logic in electoral politics after the death of Nawab Akbar Bugti, who was killed in an August 2006 military operation. Similarly, the BNPM’s faith in waging a struggle through the ballot box has waned after the arrest of its head and former chief minister of Balochistan, Akhtar Mengal, who is facing state-sponsored charges of kidnapping and torturing intelligence operatives.

Hence, while there is a race between the candidates for victory at the polls, there is also a battle between the electoral players and the boycotters. Those participating in the political process have so far failed to put up an impressive show of campaigning, but those issuing the boycott calls have held several successful public meetings and rallies. The popular Pashtun and Baloch nationalist parties have advised people to stay indoors on polling day. If the current mood is anything to go by, the people appear to be leaning more towards the abstainers than the participants.

Thus in the face of a boycott, political pundits are predicting a very low turnout in the province, except in the districts of Jafarabad, Nasirabad and Lasbela, where politicians have been historically pro-establishment. Political giants such as Dr Abdul Haye Baloch, Mir Hasil Bizenjo, Mehmood Khan Achakzai and Sardar Akhtar Mengal are conspicuous in their absence from the list of candidates. Another important segment of Balochistan’s politics – the Bugtis – will also be missing in action. While the Marris of Kohlu had abandoned electoral politics long ago, the inhabitants of Dera Bugti were very much part of it until recently. Even after the death of Akbar Bugti, most JWP legislators chose not to resign from the assemblies. They were ultimately expelled from the party, which later split in two factions, one led by Akbar Bugti’s son Jamil, and the other by his grandson Brahamdagh. The latter had been appointed by the late JWP chief as his political and tribal successor.

An additional damper on the electoral exercise in Balochistan is the recent split in the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam – Fazal’s (JUIF) provincial chapter. The break-up occurred over the nomination of its candidates from the platform of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). According to insiders, the differences came to a head after the party decided not to award a ticket to Hafiz Hussain Ahmed, who had won the National Assembly seat at NA-260 in 2002. One faction is supporting the provincial JUIF chief, Maulana Mohammad Khan Sheerani, the other is opposing him bitterly. As a result, the two groups have pitched candidates against each other for both national and provincial assembly seats.

The divide has become so deep and obvious that the group opposing Sheerani is contesting elections under a different symbol: takhti. The group has fielded candidates at four national and 20 provincial assembly seats. At NA-259 (Quetta), Hafiz Fazal Mohammad of the rebel group is contesting against Abdul Aziz Khilji, who has been issued the MMA ticket. Syed Zahir Shah Zaidi of the rebel group is facing Malik Sikandar Khan of his own party at NA-260. Likewise, Abdul Ghani Khetran of the rebel group is pitted against Maulvi Faziullah of the MMA. But the most interesting electoral fight, featuring the top guns of the two factions, will be between Maulvi Asmatullah of the rebel group and Maulana Sheerani of the JUIF. Hence, the JUIF, which in the last elections won six of the province’s 14 National Assembly seats under the umbrella of the MMA, is in disarray in Balochistan.

The rift in the party will benefit the Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam (PMLQ), which finished as the second largest party from Balochistan in the National Assembly with two seats in 2002. The cracks in the JUIF are bound to affect the voting pattern in constituencies where the main contenders were the MMA and the PMLQ, with the latter possibly notching up victory thanks to the JUIF split. In the Baloch-dominated districts of Khuzdar, Kharan, Awaran and Panjgur and the coastal belt of Makran, Balochistan National Party – Awami will be the main beneficiary of the boycott and the JUIF schism.

As has been the case previously, this election is not being fought on any real issue. With only 14 seats in a house of 272, members from Balochistan are hardly in a position to exert significant influence in any decision of the centre regarding their province. After the elections, the province’s representatives in the lower chamber of parliament will have little or no say on issues that have been the cause of alienation among the Baloch and which, in turn, are fuelling the insurgency. In such a scenario, the boycott of the nationalist parties will only promote anti-federation elements and could serve to marginalise the Baloch people in their own province.

 

Seats Captured by Political Parties and Percentage Vote Share
Political Party	Seats Won	% of Total Votes
2002
PMLQ	2	15.62
PPP	–	11.48
MMA	6	21.74
PMLN	1	2.36
MQM	–	0.06
NA	1	7.37
ANP	–	0.5
Baloch Parties (various)	3	32.62
Other Parties	–	1.57
Independent	1	6.68
Total	14	100
1997
PMLN	3	15.4
PPP	–	7.67
MQM	–	0.19
ANP	–	0.75
JUIF	2	15.26
PPPSB	–	0.15
PTI	–	0.4
Baloch Parties (various)	5	46.97
Other Parties	–	5.88
Independent	1	7.33
Total	11	100
1993
PPP	1	18.38
PMLN	–	7.47
PMLJ	–	0.05
IJM	2	19.07
ANP	–	2.1
PIF	–	0.68
MDM	–	1.7
MQM	–	0.06
Baloch Parties (various)	7	41.49
Other Parties	–	0.06
Independent	1	8.94
Total	11	100
1990
IIJI	2	11.93
PDA	2	14.86
ANP	–	2.65
JUIF	2	18.84
JUP	–	1.02
PAT	–	0.15
Baloch Parties (various)	5	49.26
Other Parties	–	0.01
Independent	–	1.28
Total	11	100
1988
PPP	1	7.21
IJI	2	21.05
JUIF	4	17.24
PAI	–	1.05
ANP	–	2.8
BNA	2	10
JUID	–	1.09
PNP	–	10.68
PMAI	–	7.52
Other Parties	–	1.53
Independent	2	19.83
Total	11	100