September 30, 2006

THE peace agreement signed between Islamabad and local militants (Taliban) or, as officials say, the elders of Utmanzai tribe in North Waziristan continues to be the bone of contention between Afghanistan and Pakistan and even President Bush had to make extraordinary efforts to defuse the tension between the leaders of the countries during their visits to the United States this week. That he has succeeded in doing so was not in evidence. However, the post-accord developments in and around North Waziristan are being closely monitored by the United States and Nato member states whose troops on the other side of the border have run into fierce Taliban resistance.

Pakistan describes the agreement as a major step to stop Taliban insurgency as President General Pervez Musharraf claimed that it is part of a “holistic approach” aimed at fighting terrorism in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Kabul has reservations about the agreement, saying ‘it is not good for Afghanistan’. The US media shares Hamid Karzai’s apprehensions. The Bush administration is keeping an eye on how the deal with (local) Talliban works and what impact it can cast on the already deteriorating security situation in southern Afghanistan. Washington has still not made its position clear although President Bush has showed confidence in President Musharraf’s approach and claim that the Miramshah agreement would curb terrorism.

The peace agreement was signed on September 5 in Miramshah, North Waziristan, though the local militants or Taliban were following a unilateral ceasefire since June. Shortly before the expiry of the one-month truce, Governor, NWFP retired Lt-Gen Ali Muhammad Orakzai formed a 45-member Grand Jirga (composed of tribal elders) to end the conflict in the region, bordering Afghanistan where more than 80,000 troops have been deployed to check militants from moving across the Durand Line.

The agreement contains 16 clauses and four sub-clauses but copy of the agreement was not issued to the media. Maulvi Nek Zaman, MNA from tribal area, read out the agreement after which the militants and military officials hugged each other and exchanged greetings.

Maulvi Nek Zaman announced following clauses: There shall be no cross-border movement for militant activity in neighbouring Afghanistan; the government guarantees not to undertake any ground or air operation against the militants; it bounds the administration to resolve the issues through local customs and traditions; the army will remove checkpoints from the region while tribal Khasadar force and Levy will take over the check posts; the agreement envisages that the foreigners living in North Waziristan will have to leave Pakistan but those who cannot leave will be allowed to live peacefully, respecting the law of the land and the agreement; both parties (army and militants) will return each other’s weapons, vehicles and communication tools, seized during various operations; Jirga comprising tribal elders, Mujahideen and Utmanzai tribe would ensure that no one attacks law-enforcement personnel and state property; There will be no target killing and no parallel administration in the agency. The writ of the state will prevail in the area; Militants would not enter the settled districts adjacent to the agency; the government would release prisoners held during military action and would not arrest them again; a 10-member committee comprising elders, members of political administration and Ulema has been formed to monitor progress on the agreement and to ensure its implementation; the government would pay compensation for the loss of life and property of innocent tribesmen during the recent operation; there will be no ban on display of arms. However, tribesmen will not carry heavy weapons.

Militant commanders Maulana Gul Bahadur and Maulvi Sadiq Noor, who are considered representatives of Mullah Jalaludin Haqani, did not attend the ceremony. However, their representatives signed the document on their behalf. The militants said that they were assured by the jirga that the government would pay them Rs10 million if it failed to return their weapons and vehicles.

Before signing the agreement, the government virtually agreed to meet all the demands of the militants. Captured militants were freed, their weapons were returned, all privileges were restored, 12 checkposts were abolished and troops stationed were called back.

Governor Aurakzai has described the peace agreement as ‘unprecedented in the tribal history’, although a similar deal was struck in Shakai on March 27, 2004 between South Waziristan militants and the government. Later, similar agreements were initialled with Baitullah Mehsud and other militant commanders. How different is the Miramshah agreement from previous one? Both agreements are almost the same. What has the government learnt from Shakai Agreement? The government claims that after Shakai agreement the security situation tremendously improved. However, the facts are different. Most of the militants, who were freed, had did give up militant activities. But some of them were shifted to North Waziristan. Now after this month’s deal in Miramshah, the chances are that most of them especially the foreigners would simply move to other neighbouring tribal agencies.

The security forces had not evacuated the area completely and attacks on their check posts continue to take place. A suicide attack, first of its kind there, was carried out in South Waziristan in July this year. The foreigners are still living in South Waziristan, and those militants, who inked the deal with government, especially Baitullah Mehsud, have enforced Islamic laws in their area and developed their own Shariah Force for implementation of Islamic laws. The tribal militants have expanded their network in the settled areas of the adjacent districts as well.

This time the government claims that militants have assured they would not set up a parallel administration or reach out to the settled districts. But just after a week of the agreement local Taliban have set up a Mujahideen Shura (or council) to administer the agency and according to the media reports they have started introducing Shariah laws as did Baitullah Mahsud in South Waziristan.

As was the case with the previous agreements, the new one also has a clause about foreign militants saying they would either leave the tribal region or live there peacefully, strictly following the law of the land. This is a big concession to the foreign militants as the government had always insisted on their registration.

Barely an hour after the peace agreement was signed, a spokesman for the militants insisted that there were no foreign militants in North Waziristan. He said the government could never prove foreign militants’ presence in the area. He also denied that militants were crossing into Afghanistan to carry out attacks on Afghan and coalition forces. That was not true, he asserted.

The problem with foreign militants is that their countries do not accept them and if they go there at all, they will be arrested and tried in a court. Recently, Bangladesh and Somalia have refused to accept their citizens, arrested from tribal areas. So, the most crucial point in the peace agreement is the government’s willingness to allow foreigners to stay in the tribal area provided they remain peaceful and strictly follow the law of Pakistan. However, for allowing them to live, guarantees will be obtained from the local tribal elders. It is a major shift in the government’s policy. Previously, the stress was on expulsion of foreigners, settled in the tribal areas. The government may have opted to adopt this course after realizing that the foreigners have nowhere to go and that the constant use of force was proving counter-productive to get rid of militancy.

How far this policy can prove to be productive remains to be seen. Afghanistan and Nato forces have noted an increase in Taliban insurgency in eastern Afghanistan after the agreement. And Pakistan government feels compelled to make clear that the troops will not be withdrawn from the agency, which is contrary to what has been agreed. Hence, the future of the agreement is uncertain. It is indeed a daunting task to ensure that there is no cross-border movement by local and foreign militants and that they do not indulge in activities detrimental to peace and security.

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