May 22, 2005

In Pakistan, the ruling elite cannot rise above its self or institutional interests because of the dynamics of power. In the process, the writ of the government starts losing relevance, and it all becomes a zero-sum game

CHURCHILL used to call Russia an enigma wrapped in mystery. Pakistan as a country may not be as enigmatic as Russia but it is full of contradictions, controversies, imbalances and paradoxes. One of its basic problems is the overwhelming power of the ruling elite, and powerlessness when it comes to solving problems.

Perceptive observers can see that there is a ‘permanent establishment’ in Pakistan, which controls all levers of power and is the self-styled guardian of our ‘national interests’. Governments come and go, but this permanent establishment remains unchanged. It is almost synonymous with the state. The civil-military bureaucracy spearheads it, but it includes all other elite groups: feudals, tribal chiefs, industrialists, big traders, successful professionals, mullahs, and even newspaper barons. There are hardcore and coopted groups, senior and junior partners, but all put together they have the capacity to control and exploit the masses to their heart’s content.

Not only does this oligarchy of permanent interests (or call it ‘elite consensus’) control all levers of power, it also holds sway over the country’s resources. It squeezes people to pay money to the state through their nose (using regressive indirect taxes) and then allocates it mostly to affluent classes. It keeps the people disempowered, illiterate, malnourished, and poor.

The coercive arm of the state is always at the beck and call of this ‘invisible’ and in some cases not-so-invisible hardcore establishment. Some critics might say that we have had political governments as well. Were they not their own masters? This argument may have some cogency, but if you look closely, governance in Pakistan is the continuum of the same old system. Even in the early days of Pakistan when the founding fathers of the country were alive, it was people like Choudhry Muhammad Ali, Ghulam Muhammad, Iskander Mirza, and Ayub Khan who were calling the shots because political leadership was weak and inexperienced.

Here, genuine political process has never been allowed to blossom. Bhutto’s early period can be cited as an exception; but soon he too was forced to toe the line or face the consequences.

In the last 57 years, this powerful oligarchy has shown its strength in many ways and demonstrated its dexterity in curbing all challenges to its authority. It has dismissed elected governments with impunity; banned political parties; created new ones overnight; dissolved the first constituent assembly; thrown out prime ministers who enjoyed full confidence of the assembly and hanged another who was directly elected by the people; declared the Constitution of Pakistan as worthless paper and treated it as such; and promulgated a new one in its place as if a single individual could be a law-giver in this modern age.

This powerful group of people has had the power of declaring wars, making peace, entering into pacts and conceiving airy notions like strategic depth and strategic defiance whatever it meant. It banned student unions, wrecked the industrial workers’ movement, and declared anyone, who refused to sign on the dotted lines, as traitor.

Does anyone have any doubt how effective these powerful people have been in controlling all levers of powers, pelf and privilege? To promote and protect their interest, they used coercion, bribery and nepotism as state policy and created a culture of opportunism, deceit, duplicity, loot and plunder. If they had played any role in the freedom struggle, they could have tried to strengthen the nascent political institutions but instead, these oligarchs exploited their inherent weakness, and succeeded in becoming a paramount force and arbiter of our destiny.

Now the question is: when this permanent establishment was so powerful and effective in derailing the political process and suppressing all dissent, why could it not solve the problems that the common man faces? Why do under-development, illiteracy and poverty still plague our society? Why unemployment is rampant? Why there is near breakdown of civic services? Why cannot law and order be maintained? These are some of the points that we will discuss in this article.

In many cases, the states which do not permit free political activity (China and previously Taiwan and South Korea), or the states which throw out a democratically elected government dubbing it anarchic and corrupt (Chile and Argentina) may be authoritarian or repressive, but the powers that be in the bargain improve the living standards of their people and maintain law and order with an iron hand. One can also cite the cases of Malaysia and Singapore where one-party rule for over 30 years allowed limited political activity and muzzled all opposition, but produced an economic miracle in the lifetime of a generation.

And what do we see in Pakistan? We are losers on both counts. We neither have a democratic set-up in the conventional sense (which is supposed to be messy, inept, slow and even corrupt but brings about political stability and provides accommodation to differing groups as it has in India), nor do we have a state, which has the capacity to improve the living standards of the people and provide them security. This is in spite of the fact that it controls all levers of power and has huge resources at its disposal.

To elaborate the point a little further, let us consider the three crucial areas which affect the life of the common man: (a) law and order (b) economic development, and (c) social and physical infrastructure.

a) The basic duty of every state is to provide security and peace of mind to its citizens. Can one say this about Pakistan? Do people feel secure in their homes, offices, roads, worship places, and commercial centres? The police may argue that the crime rate in some other countries is higher than in Pakistan, but it is of no comfort to the frightened people. Foreigners as well Pakistanis living in major city centres consider Pakistan an unsafe place. In spite of all claims, this perception persists. Previously, it was only crime against property, but now violence in its various forms and shades has taken root and continues to traumatize the people. Wana, Sui, Gilgit and Quetta are symptoms of this malaise.

When the government’s writ in maintaining law and order becomes weak, even the law enforcers become vulnerable and feel insecure. In the past couple of years, we have seen attacks on police stations, lock-ups and even on jails, where senior officials judges were killed. The latest was the attack on corps commander Karachi.

Now we have reached a stage where the state shows its inability in controlling rampant crime. For example, dacoits wreak havoc on upper Sindh and bordering areas of Balochistan and Punjab. Despite many high-level conferences and joint operations by law enforcing agencies, this menace remains uncontrolled. People are kidnapped by the dozens and are only freed when ransom is paid. Similarly, vehicle theft has become a multi-billion rupee business in Pakistan. With all modern gadgetry and satellite imaging at its disposal, the state shows its inability to control the crime. The level of criminality in major cities can only appal one. The less said is better about sectarianisms, target killings and terrorist activities. The state’s response is at best reactive. Action starts when the incident has taken palace. There is total failure of intelligence agencies to pre-empt such dastardly acts.

In the last few years billions of rupees have been spent in the name of police reforms and a number of posts have been created at the higher level. But do we see any improvement at police stations’ level, which is the basic unit in police hierarchy? And is there any hope that the police will become more effective and respond to peoples’ needs as a result of these reforms?

One can also see that the judicial system dealing both with civil and criminal cases has almost collapsed. Hundreds of thousands cases remain pending with no chance of early decision. Hardened criminals are not afraid of the arm of the law. Mismanagement in jails is appalling. They are bursting at the seams. In a nutshell, we have reached the breaking point with no improvement in sight.

b) Now let us come to the living conditions of ordinary Pakistanis.

The financial managers and economic wizards are happy that Pakistan has achieved a level of macro-economic stabilization, which is spectacular and unprecedented. Our foreign exchange reserves no doubt once reached the level of $12billion. Exports are increasing. Deficit has been reduced. Remittances from overseas Pakistanis are going up. It was stated time and again that son after this breakthrough, investment (both local and foreign) would come in droves resulting in high rates of sustained growth. This growth-led economy, they argued, would create large numbers of jobs, poverty would be reduced, and everybody would be happy.

We have been hearing all these claims for the last several years now, but what did actually happen? The much-trumpeted investment did not create the promised jobs (one can call it jobless growth), and poverty showed no signs of abatement. On the other hand, the rising inflation is proving to be the last nail in the coffin. It raises two basic question: Can growth alone attack mass poverty? And who stands to gain from the high rates of growth? There’s empirical evidence that half of the benefits of economic growth in Pakistan are currently going to top 20 per cent and bottom 20 per cent are getting only eight per cent. It now seems clear that Pakistan has neither the vision nor the capacity to bring about fundamental changes which can transform the economy.

c) Let us now come to the third point.

It is the social sector where the powerlessness of the powerful is most evident. Pakistan stands at serial no. 142 in the human development index. Most glaring is the fact that 5.5 million children cannot go to school because there are no schools for them. Drop-out rate continues to be very high. Even after 57 years of independence, over 60 per cent people do not have proper sanitation. Piped water is available to less than half of the population. The rate of population growth in Pakistan continues to be the highest in the region. Even immunization coverage (for which ample funds are available) has reached only 50 per cent level. Infant and maternal mortality rates are scary. In Karachi alone 10 per cent children die before their fifth birthday, while 40 per cent who survive are malnourished.

Physical infrastructure has the same story. During the last three decades, our cities and towns have witnessed gradual decay and deterioration especially in road maintenance, water supply, sanitation, and solid waste management. Now most of them are virtual garbage dumps. If anyone has any doubt about the collapse of the system and powerlessness of the powerful, they should go to places like Hyderabad, Shikarpur, Larkana, Faisalabad, Gujranwala and Quetta which have produced prime ministers, chief ministers, very powerful politicians and bureaucrats but miserably failed to provide basic services even in their own areas. And mind you this is not because of the lack of resources. For most of these cities and towns, special packages have been announced many times costing billions of rupees, but the situation worsened instead of showing any signs of improvement.

Karachi’s decay and deterioration is another example of indecisiveness and apathy of the ruling elite. Perhaps it is the only city of its size which does not have even a master plan although Rs480 million were wasted on its preparation. It neither has a public road transport nor a rapid transit system of any sort. Even the bus terminals do not exist which one can find in almost all big cities of the world. Interestingly, over a dozen studies have been carried out for a mass transit system and another three-dozen for waste disposal management. But to date there are no signs of such schemes on the ground.

If any further proof of the powerlessness of the powerful is needed, one should have a look at the abandoned projects and incomplete buildings spread over the length and breadth of Pakistan. We have hospitals, basic health units, rural health centres, primary/secondary and technical schools, colleges, mono technics, community centres, working women hostels, abattoirs, parks, playgrounds, stadia and gymnasia which are lying unused or have been left half way. Keep on counting and the list will still be incomplete. No doubt Pakistan can be called a graveyard for abandoned projects. Trillions of rupees have been wasted in the name of development.

What is the crux of all this discussion?

One can conclude that the oligarchic, elitist system, which the rulers declare to be the panacea for all our ills (because of its alleged efficiency, competence and decisiveness) is at best effective for a limited period and can achieve limited objectives. From outside it looks impregnable, but is weaker than the weakest democratic system because of two inherent weaknesses: a) it lacks legitimacy, and b) there is a disconnect between civil society and the rulers. Since it lacks legitimacy, the only thing which can sustain it is brute force, fear, coercion and corruption. It also forces the system to seek support of discredited politicians and in some cases people having criminal record. To keep them happy rules are relaxed which leads to a culture of loot and plunder.

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