April 24, 2005

The return of Zardari and that of Benazir in 1986 are two events that would be remembered for their dissimilarities. Zardari’s keenness to hold talks with the establishment is a matter of concern for the PPP’s allies in the ARD

ALL roads leading to the Lahore Airport were sealed on that fateful day. PPP sources were claiming that the government had arrested 60,000 of its activists. In days leading up to the D- Day, Federal Information Minister Sheikh Rashid had been talking of the dichotomy between Marcos and Mandela. And, not to be left behind, Punjab Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi had threatened to “knock the daylights out of them” — ‘them’ being the PPP supporters. It was in this atmosphere that Asif Zardari landed in Lahore.

A few days earlier, the chief minister had said during a public meeting in Kasur that Zardari was an accused, not a hero. President Pervez Musharraf was also there, and whatever the chief minister had said was supposed to be reflective of the latter’s thoughts. Sheikh Rashid, of course, is already the well-known spokesman for the president. Put together, the government had made it clear how it planned to handle the situation on and after the return of Zardari.

On their part, the PPP leaders were making preparations to welcome Zardari, just as they had welcomed Benazir Bhutto on her return from self-exile back in 1986. While the government was making its stance known, it was somewhat strange that the PPP leadership was simply exhorting its followers to be there, without giving them any practical guideline in the face of police brutality that was awaiting them. It was like urging the elephant to pass through the proverbial needle-hole.

However, despite the obstacles and the lack of party support, the enthusiastic workers did whatever was possible. But, for many, Zardari did great injustice to them by ‘surrendering’ himself rather meekly to the police on his arrival. He was taken to Bilawal House, near the old airport, where he stayed under police custody. Interestingly, the chief minister subsequently explained that Zardari was “provided VVIP security at the request of his party leaders”.

The following day, Zardari held a news conference where it suddenly dawned upon him that the army was “an irrefutable reality” and that it was “as patriotic an institution as the PPP”. He promised that his party would value the opinion of the institution and take it along, underlining the need for a dialogue between the PPP and the establishment. That he repeated the point at least thrice during the press conference told its own tale.

What was noticed by many is that Zardari remains very careful in his attitude towards General Pervez Musharraf. While the PPP policy stand is that Musharraf happens to be neither the constitutional president nor the army chief, the spouse of the former prime minister doesn’t emphasize the point in his utterances.

A reporter had asked him recently how the PPP would work with Gen Musharraf as president of the country even if the party won fresh elections and got sufficient seats to form its government. In response, Zardari said the new parliament would take a decision, clearly suggesting that the PPP was not keeping the doors open for a patch-up with the general.

Zardari’s return and his subsequent conduct has raised several questions. For instance, why was need for a dialogue underlined after giving a call to workers to reach the airport?

Talks, according to Zardari, had been going on since 1999 and could have continued now without putting such a large number of party supporters in trouble. The PPP can be held guilty of keeping the situation tense for such a long time. It may also be accused of wasting everyone’s time; its own as well as of its allies in the ARD.

The sudden shift towards softness in the PPP’s attitude also calls into question the justification of the meetings the PPP and the ARD leaders have been holding with EU ambassadors and Commonwealth officials, urging them to use their influence on Gen Musharraf to restore democracy.

As a matter of record, no meeting of any PPP organization was held to adopt a ‘soft approach’. Party leaders came to know of it only through media reports.

While it is difficult for anyone to explore the reasons behind the change in thinking, some say either the party workers are not in a mood to resist dictatorship, or cases against the leadership are so strong that it is left with no option but to try to strike a deal.

The plan for the return of Zardari was announced about 40 days in advance. During the intervening period, the former ruling couple must have discussed party strategy for the weeks and months ahead. Perhaps it was because of the impression conveyed by the leadership that many in the PPP started claiming that several changes on the political scene were in the offing. Zardari’s telephonic addresses to various gatherings also strengthened the impression that the future belonged to the PPP.

The party was so sure of an immediate change on Zardari’s return that many leaders who had disappeared from the scene since the removal of the PML-N government in 1999, started participating in meetings. Even though they had to face embarrassing remarks from their colleagues, they shut their ears to be able to worm their way back into the party.

A question that remains unanswered so far concerns the rally the PPP was so vehemently insisting on holding. The Punjab government disallowed it, but the PPP did not seek permission for a public meeting. The provincial chief minister is on record having said he was willing to consider an application for a public meeting, but it was never moved by the PPP. There have been suggestions in private gatherings that the party was not confident about possible attendance. When a scribe took up the matter with a key PPP leader, he said he would answer it when the two were alone! . Does it mean that the PPP is willing to part ways with the PML-N and the rest of the parties in the ARD? Or, will the change of heart on the part of the PPP be acceptable to the PML-N leadership? Or, will the ‘surrender’ make it difficult for a demoralized ARD to launch a potent struggle against the government?

Zardari’s decision to make Lahore the centre of his political activities is a message both to both the key PML factions. Lahore, in fact the entire Punjab, is being claimed by the two factions entities. Though the PPP has been winning several seats from the province, its position has weakened with the passage of time. As things stand today, there may well be triangular bouts in Punjab whenever the next elections are held. However, a different picture would emerge if the PPP and the PML-N, which is its ally in the ARD, joined hands against the ruling party. For the moment though, ARD, to a lot of political observers, stands for ‘Asif Resets Direction. That is saying a lot, really.

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