THE number of people living in the path of potentially devastating floods is set to double — from one to two billion — within two generations unless adequate preventative steps are taken, researchers at the United Nations University (UNU) said recently.
The researchers blame climate change, deforestation, rising seas and population growth for the elevated risk of facing once-in-100-year flooding.
Floods already affect more than 520 million people worldwide every year. Each year, 25,000 people are killed in floods worldwide and many more are affected by resulting homelessness, disease and crop failures. But experts calculate the numbers at risk will more than double because of more frequent extreme weather events linked to global warming, because sea levels will continue to rise as glaciers melt and because the clearing of forests means rainfall runs off faster.
Scientists also predict that because flood plains tend to have the richest agricultural soils, more people will move into the danger zone by 2050, as the planet’s population climbs to an estimated 10 billion.
The threat varies from country to country. But it is clear that poor, developing nations bear the brunt of annual flooding and the huge costs that result.
Floods in Asia — the worst-affected continent — between 1987 and 1997 claimed 228,000 lives and caused economic losses of an estimated $136billion. But in Europe in 2002, once-a-century floods killed 100 people, affected around 450,000 and did $20billion damage.
Of the 30 countries with the greatest ‘relative vulnerability’ — the number of people killed by floods per million exposed — 28 are in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Pacific. Venezuela, where nearly 1,500 people died in floods each year between 1980 and 2000, tops the scale, followed by Somalia, Morocco and Papua New Guinea. According to data from the United Nations Development Programme, more than 90 per cent of the populations of Bolivia, Ecuador and Nepal are exposed to floods.
Each year, floods and weather-related disasters cost the global economy $50-60 billion. “These losses could be reduced if current spending on flood prevention and prediction were increased. Whilst countries are generous with post-disaster relief, they are thrifty where preparedness is concerned, spending $100 on relief for every $1 that is spent on preparedness,” says Janos Bogardi, founding director of UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) in Bonn, Germany, which is dedicated to studying natural disasters and building UNU-EHS.
According to scientists, human activities are generating the increased flood risk. Rising sea levels linked to global warming threaten populations in coastal lowlands and small islands, and higher sea temperatures may increase the frequency of cyclones and storm surges reaching shores. Meanwhile, widespread deforestation, particularly in mountainous regions, increases the chance of rivers flooding.
“The thousands of tragic casualties from flooding in Haiti and the Dominican Republic in recent weeks underline the extreme vulnerability of developing countries,” says Bogardi. “While economic losses due to natural disasters destroy resources equivalent to two per cent of GDP in developed countries each year, in developing countries the proportion can reach as high as 13 per cent.” — Samina Iqbal
Magnetic help
WEARING a magnetic bracelet could reduce the pain arising from osteoarthritis of the hip and knee, states a recent issue of the British Medical Journal.
Worldwide sales of such bracelets were estimated at five billion dollars in 1999. Osteoarthritis affects around 760,000 people in the United Kingdom. If magnets were effective they would offer a cheap and probably a safe treatment option.
A study was performed on 194 men and women aged 45 to 80 years diagnosed with osteoarthritis of the hip and knee joints. Three groups were formed. One was given a standard strength static bipolar magnetic bracelet, the second a weak magnetic bracelet and the third a non-magnetic bracelet or dummy, all for 12 weeks.
At the end of the study period, the results which were self reported, showed a significant reduction of pain in both groups wearing a standard and weak magnetic bracelet compared to the dummy. High levels of improvement were achieved in the standard magnetic group. But is the effect real, is still to be decided.
Whatever the mechanism, the benefit from magnetic bracelets seems clinically useful. The cost of the bracelet compares well with analgesic drugs and has lesser side effects. Only two participants complained of dizziness, increased pain or stiffness.
Studies have shown that a failure to have an effect on pain was seen in patients wearing weaker magnets. Others proved that good results were had with stronger magnets. These findings suggest that field strength is important. — Dr Fatema Jawad
