August 1, 2004

‘The middle class in Pakistan has grown exponentially during the last two decades. The problem is that we prefer not to acknowledge the fact. This is perhaps because we are a pessimistic society,’ argues Dr Rasul Bukhsh Rais, of LUMS

THE idea of the American Dream, linked to both wealth and income, is often boasted about, but a parallel idea of Pakistani Dream does not simply exit, partially because our class stratification system is said to be fairly close to being closed, and the opportunity for upward social mobility is pretty scant. To add to the confusion, experts hold contrasting views as to whether the social class is expanding or shrinking and most Pakistanis consider themselves a part of the middle class, with the exception of the upper classes.

The boundaries of the middle class are further blurred due to its subjective and relative nature. A recent trend of rising consumerism adds to the lower class’s false perception of belonging to the middle class. Dawn Magazine recently discussed the matter with Dr Rasul Bakhsh Rais, who heads the Department of Social Sciences at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, and is well reputed for his expertise on Pakistan’s socio-political affairs. The following are the excerpts from the interview:

Q. The common-sense notion is that the middle class is withering or getting squeezed in today’s economy. What is your take on the issue?

A. The middle class in Pakistan has grown exponentially during the past two decades. It is generally not recognized. The reason is that culturally we are a pessimistic society. We do not appreciate our own development and growth. This mindset loses sight of our own accomplishments. Just cast a look around your neighbourhood, family, town where you grew up and the people that you knew of, and see how they have done.

In every society there is larger number of cases of failures. Being in the middle, the middle class numbers fluctuate with changes in the economy. It has happened in Pakistan as well, but on the whole the economic base of the middle class has greatly expanded and with that has come social mobility. It is a remarkable phenomenon, but remains an understudied subject.

Q. What are some of the factors leading, in your view, to the expansion of the middle class?

A. The factors that have shaped the expansion of the middle class in Pakistan are essentially economic. They are four. The first is the growth of industry and business that have transformed social structures of a large part of Punjab. It is both visible and documented in the history of economic growth.

Then comes the expansion of professional classes — doctors, engineers, lawyers etc. These classes couldn’t grow without economic growth. Third is the Dubai factor. It is no exaggeration that millions of skilled and unskilled workers over the past three decades have contributed to the economy close to hundred billion dollars, if not more, in remittances. It is a very conservative estimate. This money has gone to real estate, construction, small businesses, agriculture and service sectors. The Dubai factor has earned millions of Pakistanis entry to the rank of middle class with multiplying effects on social and economic mobility of others as well.

Finally, the green revolution has produced a vast rural middle class. As a village boy, and still having strong roots in the agrarian society, I have observed structural changes in our agriculture. One of the most adverse effects is displacement of the peasants. That was bound to happen with the mechanisation of agriculture. Industrialisation did not grow at the same scale to absorb the surplus agricultural labour. The state did not invest in the education, health and training of the displaced peasantry. For that reason we see growth in rural poverty. But those who owned some productive land anywhere with some water resources available have entered the rank of the middle class.

I would like to distinguish between rural and urban middle classes because of the vast differential in cost of living and patterns of consumption. The rural middle class with fridges, TVs motorbikes, kids in up-scale schools and tractors has expanded. These gains are further feeding into their potential to grow more prosperous.

Q. Economic indicators, even official ones, would allude to the fact that the poverty level has not reduced in the last decade or so. How is then the premise proposing a rising social class justifiable?

A. It was because of the poor performance of the economy during the 1990s. I don’t see any automatic functional link between economic growth and reduction in poverty. It may help if the growth is impressive and it is consistent for couple of decades. In the immediate period, the poverty issue cannot be addressed by the trickle-down theory. There has to be state intervention.

Under pressure from the IMF and the World Bank, and the conditionalities that our successive governments accepted, the social safety nets for the poor were gradually cut off, leaving them on the mercy of market forces. Also, the way we measure poverty doesn’t tell the whole story. And, it doesn’t mean that if you are not poor then you are in the middle class. The two are very separate and distinct categories. The middle-income households faced economic pressures, but their class status didn’t change from middle to poor. There is too wide a gap between the two.

Q. Has political middle class changed in Pakistan over the last couple of decades? If yes, how? If no, why not?

A. The middle class has become depoliticized because of its marginalization by the mainstream political parties that are dominated by the old feudal and new industrial elites. The middle class that emerged as a result of Ayub Khan’s modernizing decade was instrumental in Z.A. Bhutto’s political revolution from organizing protest movement against Ayub to bringing Bhutto in power. This class provided a natural nexus with the common man, popularized Bhutto’s message and mobilized people in support of his party.

ZAB’s own policies and his natural drift toward the feudal alienated the most active, modern and progressive element of the middle class. The recruitment of leadership into the higher ranks of the parties remained confined to the traditional land-owning families. The only exception is the rise of MQM, which is a middle class phenomenon, and to some extent, the religious political parties have promoted their cadre. But both of them have very specific agendas, and lack political capacity to go beyond their specific constituencies.

Political failures of the mainstream political parties, their corruption, and, more importantly, their underdevelopment as agents of political transformation have driven the middle class out of politics. However, the middle class, the way it has grown, is out there for grab if a leader with a modernist vision, ability to organize collective action and credibility emerges on the scene.

The middle class folks, by virtue of their natural orientation, pride themselves in achievement, and are moderate, rational and enlightened. That is the real potential of the country that remains unexplored. Political participation of this class and the emergence of leadership from within will provide the engines to drive democracy to its destination. The danger is that if the channels of meaningful participation in the political system remain clogged, as they are, because of the monopoly over parties and power structures by the ruling classes, some sections of it may turn to ethnic, political and religious extremism, and even violence. Some of it is already taking place.

Q. A social class is generally defined based on a host of important resources, including wealth, power and prestige. Which ones of the three do you generally consider when proposing your argument for the expansion of the middle class?

A. Wealth, power and prestige quite often go hand in hand. Wealth produces power and adds to prestige. Social prestige opens up the opportunities for amassing further wealth and exercising power. My definition of the middle class is purely in economic terms. By this I mean increase in levels of income, changes in lifestyle, a different pattern of consumption, and social mobility.

Q. If the middle class is to rise, there ought to be either an upward social mobility in the lower class or a downward mobility in the upper class, which one in your opinion is at work in Pakistan?

A. The rise of the middle class is not due to any decline in the economic power of the upper classes. The upper classes, due to legal and illegal economy of graft, smuggling, drug trafficking, political patronage and corruption, has swelled its ranks. In a glaring contrast to poverty, the upper class, especially the new-money-upper-class is quite vulgar in its show of wealth to which it attaches its sense of prestige.

The upper class, too, owns more wealth today than their forefathers did, and the political economy of corruption due to soft-state syndrome has moved a large section of the middle class to the upper-middle, at least in terms of rupee value of known and hidden wealth.

The middle class has grown because of the factors that I have spoken about earlier. It is an erroneous notion that if you are not poor, then you are in the middle class. One may not be poor, but still he may not be in the middle class. To give you an idea, a doctor, lawyer, engineer, college teacher and so many other professionals in the private sector would typically belong to this class. The growth of agriculture and rise in commodity prices has added great numbers to the middle class.

Q. One reason for confusion on whether the social class structure has changed is the subjective understanding of people as to what constitutes a social class. Do you think the change is mere subjective perception, or in reality the middle class has changed?

A. There are many shades of the middle class; you cannot fit them all into one income-level or consumer-pattern frame. Its spectrum is just too wide, and gets wider when we consider the rural, urban settings together. Middle class families own cars in Pakistan, live in their own houses and send the children to colleges. But there are others who may not own a car, but be sending their children to college. It varies greatly. It will be a mistake to apply the car-college criteria of American middle class to Pakistani conditions.

Although the GNP places Pakistan in lower-income-group countries, its purchasing power parity is still impressive. The structural change in the economy may increase wealth of some sections of the middle class, but that will not change the definition of the class itself. It is not just a false impression or a media-driven perception; the middle class with more income is changing in its lifestyle.

This change is symbolized by moving from congested locality to more spacious place, owning a car, choosing private school, private hospital, buying multiple cell phones and eating out. One is amazed to see how many restaurants are in just the Gulberg area of Lahore, and all of them are overpriced and crowded. In the early 1970s, there were only a couple of them. The consumer is our new middle class.

Q. Proponents of development argue that international agencies’ efforts are partly to be credited for whatever improvement in people’s standards of living. Others are skeptical about such assumptions. What is your position on the issue?

A. It will be a mistake to credit international agencies, if you mean the IMF, the Asian Development Bank or the World Bank. They are creditors and it is in their interest that the debtors are healthy enough to pay back, which in case of long-term commercial loans amounts to manifold of the principal. They are suckers. They work with our corrupt bureaucracies to sell us loans that quite often we don’t need. Their alien experts are culturally insensitive, lack true understanding of our society, and they are driven by their own professional greed and the interest of the agencies to sell money. Some of the structural flaws that we have in economy, politics and society are the result of their influence on our economic planning in the past.

Q. Have women’s lot changed at all in the process of social mobility in Pakistan?

A. Due to the rise of middle class, the status of women in Pakistan is much better today than it was twenty years ago. But that positive effect is confined to the middle class alone.

Q. Poverty or wealth is certainly an important aspect of social class, and it is generally argued that poverty has a woman’s face. Do you think women are differentially affected by changes in a social class?

A. There is no doubt in my mind that woman suffers more than the man under conditions of poverty. The contribution of women to our agricultural economy is not documented. If the services of women in poor households are monetized, their contribution to household income would be found equal to that of men, if not greater.

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