July 18, 2004

A massive increase in Population can lead to problems of catastrophic proportions. It’s time the global powers took steps to counter the looming threat

THE 20th century witnessed an unprecedented population explosion. In 1804, the population of the world had touched the one billion mark. It increased to two billion in 1927. By 1999, it had become six billion — an increase of five billion within a century.

According to the Population Reference Bureau of the United States, the world’s population will have increased to nine billion by 2050. If the trend continues, which is more than likely, it will be 12 billion in 2057. It is facile to claim that technological progress will take care of these massive increases. We are being extremely short-sighted, if not myopic, by ignoring the looming catastrophe. The global population is unevenly distributed. The density of population in Bangladesh is 20 times the world average of 120 persons to a mile. Asia has more than three times the world density at 307.

The world’s population is growing by about 79 million a year, (roughly equal to the population of Germany) about 6.6 million people a month or 1.5 million a week. Almost 99 per cent of natural increase (births minus deaths, disregarding migration) occurs in the less developed countries. Very high rates of infant mortality — nearly 99 per cent of infant deaths worldwide — have reduced the net addition, though. China and India account for about one-third of births worldwide. The increase mercifully reached its most recent peak of 87 million around 1990. The decline has been strongly affected by changes in China’s birth rate.

China, much criticized by the West for its ‘one-child policy’, has done a great favour to the world by controlling its population growth. It is China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia and Nigeria and the US (the only developed country in the league), which are adding enormously to the global population. By 2050, the world’s 15 most populous countries will have added another 1.7 billion people. China will be displaced by India as the most populous country in the world. Bangladesh and the US will maintain their respective positions at three and eight. Pakistan and Nigeria will have leapt to 4th and 6th positions from 7th and 9th at present. Japan and Germany will have forfeited the distinction of belonging to the league. Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo would be the new members. Russia would have slipped to the lowest position from 6th to 15th.

In 1951, Pakistan had a population of 33 million. It increased, more than four times, in 50 years to 148.6 million in 2003. Biodiversity is at great risk. Pakistan has a large number of ecological regions. The seawaters of the Arabian Sea in and around Karachi, a city of 12 million, are highly polluted by the accumulation of oil, pesticides, assorted metals and millions of gallons of raw sewage dumped into the sea every day. Mangroves are dying. Overgrazing, deforestation, soil erosion, and chemical pollution are some other factors contributing to the degradation of biodiversity.

Many animal species, including mammals and birds, are facing extinction. Out of 188 species of mammals, 48 are at great risk. Of the 662 bird varieties, 42 face extinction. Rare animals like Indus dolphin and snow leopard are in a serious danger of getting eliminated from the face of the Earth. Marine life is threatened, and so to human lives.

Neighbouring countries fare no better. It was in 1966 that one visited the Rangamati Hill Tracts in Bangladesh. The drive from Chittagong was breathtakingly beautiful, and so was Rangamati. A subsequent visit to Switzerland failed to overwhelm one’s initial impression of the blessed beauty of those pristine vales and hills. Similarly, the coastal town of Cox’s Bazaar had a beautiful beach, which ran for miles and miles. One could drive a jeep at 60 miles an hour on the sea sand. More than 30 years later both the Hill Tracts and the beach presented a depressing sight. Now that is history. One was devastated at what one saw. There was no beach left. People allowed sewage to flow into the sea, having occupied the whole beach themselves. Even in Sri Lanka, which has a higher rate of literacy than all other countries of the subcontinent, one saw the horrific sight of a large number of people defecating on the beach early in the morning. Sea waves had to do the cleaning.

To add to the looming crisis, the US government has opted out of the Kyoto Accord. The accord represented the lowest common denominator of world opinion. It is for the world to unite and confront the United States to conform to the Kyoto Accord. President Bush’s cynicism extends to nominating an anti-environmentalist Utah Governor Leavitt to the Environment Protection Agency (EPA).

According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth’s surface temperature increased by about one degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. 1998 was the warmest year on record. Scientists expect the average global surface temperature to rise to 1-4.50F (0.6-2.50C) in the next 50 years, and 2.2-100F (1.4-5.80C) in the next century, with significant regional variations. Evaporation will increase as the climate warms, which will increase average global precipitation. Soil moisture is likely to decline in many regions, and intense rainstorms may become more frequent. Sea level is likely to rise two feet along most of the US coast. It has already risen by 4-8 inches over the past century.

There is new and stronger evidence that most warming over the last 50 years can be attributed to human activities. Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are likely to accelerate the rate of climate change.

Global precipitation over land has increased by about one per cent. The frequency of extreme rainfall events has increased throughout the United States. Global temperature changes over the past 12 decades show an abnormal rise, (see chart). Europe was in the grip of heatwave. London’s Heathrow airport registered a record temperature of 37.9 Celsius. Germany recorded a temperature of 40.4 Celsius. France was sizzling and heat related deaths rose to thousands. Snow on Alps started melting. What could be a greater disaster than the global change in climate?

Scientists generally believe that the combustion of fossil fuels and other human activities are the primary reason for the increased concentration of carbon dioxide. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased nearly 30 per cent, methane concentrations more than doubled, and nitrous oxide concentrations rose by about 15 per cent. The United States, in 1997, emitted about one-fifth of total global greenhouse gases. Fossil fuels burned to run cars and trucks, heat homes and businesses, and power factories contributed about 98 per cent of US carbon dioxide emissions, 24 per cent of methane emissions, and 18 per cent of nitrous oxide emissions. Increased agriculture, deforestation, landfills, industrial production, and mining also have a significant share in emissions.

These factors have enhanced the heat-trapping capability of the Earth’s atmosphere. In the absence of remedial measures, carbon dioxide concentrations are projected to be 30-150 per cent higher by 2100.

A massive increase in population is the root cause of it all. Measures to control population have been lackadaisical. Religion has been pressed into service to justify foolish policies. A lack of education facilities and burgeoning population give rise to poverty, which in turn breeds extremism and terrorism. Some leaders in the United States and in the Third World have shown insufficient understanding of the complex issues involving population control. Self-satisfied mullahs in the Muslim world and Christian fundamentalists in the US have compounded the problems of governance. The great intellectual traditions of churches and mosques alike are leaving the scholarly and religious worlds behind.

The West cannot sit smug by ignoring the issue of population explosion as something only belonging to the Third World. This is being-short sighted. It must shift its focus to human development in the poorer countries. This will be in the long-term interest not only in the poorer parts of the world but also in the West itself. Unless it realizes its responsibility for containing this problem, disaster is waiting to happen sometimes in the near future. What is required is a modicum of understanding of the seriousness of the problem. The sheer space on the globe is limited, after allowance is made for the two-thirds occupied by water and great parts by deserts.

The enlightened West enjoys enormous leverage, both military and economic, to be able to influence policy changes in poor proliferators in the third world. They must enforce education and population as twin elements of state policy. Left to them, these third world countries will self-destruct. Sovereignty is a myth. The US has exploded it by granting itself the right to introduce ‘democracy’ by force, if necessary. The West controls the World Bank, the IMF and other purse strings of the poor world. It relies on the sale of arms for sustaining its economies.

The United Nations should be made to take charge of policies impinging on the survival of mankind and should set limits on annual military expenditure on countries with the highest rate of population growth. The collective conscience of the world should be brought to bear upon the recalcitrant countries to improve their governance, to put effective measures in place to control population, to ensure universal education and to drastically reduce the military expenditure. Unless this is done, mankind faces a bleak future.

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