A prodigious increase in Population threatens the economic growth of the country
WHAT is development if it is not related to human beings? This is precisely what was discussed and stressed on at the Millennium Summit held in September 2000, where more than 140 world leaders reaffirmed their commitment towards a world in which sustainable development would be achieved. They also agreed to support the Millennium Development Goals that came out as a result of the agreements and resolutions at different conferences organized by the United Nations during the ’90s.
Comprising 18 targets and 48 indicators, the eight Millennium Development Goals were:
• Reduce to half the proportion of people living on less than one dollar a day;
• Ensure that boys and girls complete their primary education;
• Eliminate gender disparity at all levels of education;
• Reduce child mortality by two-thirds;
• Reduce maternal mortality to three-quarters;
• Rollback HIV/Aids, malaria and other diseases
• Reduce to half the proportion of people who don’t have access to safe water;
• Develop a global partnership for development.
Despite the fact that Pakistan supports the above-mentioned goals, it is quite clear that it is not even close to achieving them. Issues like debt repayment, huge defence expenditure and corruption are a big impediment in the way of achieving the objectives that are related to progress and prosperity.
Intractable population growth is also an important factor that is preventing Pakistan from getting closer to its goals. Unless the problem is checked, all efforts to move towards a rapid economic development will be unsuccessful. There is a dire need for focusing on this issue.
Over the years, Pakistan has experienced an incredible population growth rate. In 1950, it was demographically the 13th largest country in the world. It was ranked seventh by 1996, and according to one UN projection, it will be the third most populated country (after China and India) by 2050. In specific terms, Pakistan’s population was 32.5 million in 1947 which increased to 142.5 million in 2001. These days, it is estimated to be over 150 million.
Pakistan is, indeed, experiencing a dangerous population growth rate. It was 2.3 per cent between 1990 and 2000. At the time, the country had the highest fertility rate in South Asia. Its population doubled in 50 years between 1901 and 1951. It increased twice as much in only 21 years, between 1951 and 1972 and again in 26 years between 1972 and 1998. At the present rate, the population will double, yet again, in 27 years’ time. Pakistan’s population during the 1998 census was 132.4 million. With a growth rate of 2.6 per cent, as many as three million people are added to its demographic chart every year.
The rapid increase in population aggravates the poverty issue, which, in turn, increases the fertility rate. In fact, Pakistan’s high fertility rate, uncontrollable population growth and abject poverty are interlinked.
Certain people believe that the growth rate is gradually decreasing. In the 1970s and 1980s, the fertility rate per woman was more than six children and it dropped to five during the 1990s. It is estimated that the current fertility rate is 4.8. However, it is still high and needs to be drastically minimized.
It may also be pointed out that the fertility rate in the rural areas (5.9) is higher than the urban areas (3.9). But due to the fact that a lot of people every year migrate from the smaller towns to the bigger ones, the burgeoning population in Pakistan’s cities has also been noteworthy. In 1981, for example, three cities had more than one million people. By 1998, the number of cities having more than one million population increased to seven. These included Karachi (more than 9.3 million), Lahore (5.4 million) and Faisalabad (two million).
Furthermore, the population density of Pakistan in 1998 was 166 persons per square kilometre, 10 times bigger than the population density of 16 person per square kilometre in North America.
Factors associated with the high fertility rate in Pakistan include illiteracy, low status of women, fatalism, religious conservativeness and inadequate family planning.
The developed countries which have achieved sustained economic growth are generally the ones that followed a development strategy emphasizing a controlled population rate along with the expansion of agricultural and industrial sectors. Let us refer to the Chinese experience here.
Being the most populated country in the world, it is one of the main objectives of China to keep its population growth under control. It intends to keep its population below 1.4 billion by 2010. For several decades, it has been actively persuading its people to realize their responsibilities, understand the consequences of larger families and appreciate the advantages of family planning.
To some extent, in the recent years, Pakistan’s campaign for family planning was affected by severe opposition from the fundamentalist groups in the country. But there are several Muslim countries which have successfully controlled their population by promoting family planning campaigns.
The population of Bangladesh, for example, has undergone an incredible transformation. In fact, every government in Bangladesh gives priority to its population control programmes. In 1989, the National Council for Population (NCPC) was formed and several policy-makers, religious leaders, experts and representatives from various organizations participated in the forum, launching vigorous campaigns to create awareness at all levels about demographic issues. The country was finally able to succeed in controlling its ever-increasing population.
Iran is another Muslim country that has successfully controlled its demographics. According to the 1986 census, its growth rate was about 3.4 per cent. Therefore, the need to reduce this level was urgently felt. A high population growth as well as migration of people from war zones, particularly from Iraq and Afghanistan, made the situation more critical. Iran realized that its population posed a threat to its economy. The religious leaders of Iran campaigned in favour of family planning and Imam Khomeini gave his approval to the campaign. Subsequently, a policy to implement family planning programmes was effectively introduced.
Though different governments in Pakistan have tried to deal with the population issue by adopting a number of measure, nothing has so far produced the desired results. The issue needs to be taken up seriously and the public must be made to understand that the burgeoning population will further aggravate the problems of illiteracy and unemployment in the country. It would also prevent Pakistan from growing into a modern, progressive and prosperous state.
In this regard, the present government has indeed taken a number of steps. It has set up a committee under the ministry of population, welfare and the ministry for health to review the Population Welfare Programme. Highlighting the consequence of population growth in the country, the government also announced some major decisions on the World Population Day on July 11, 2000.
The government’s intentions are fine, but they need to be pursued vigorously and with utmost sincerity.
A prodigious increase in Population threatens the economic growth of the country 
