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The Magazine

June 13, 2004




Uncertainty beyond the Hindukush



By Shamim-ur-Rahman


The Americans seem to be buying security rather than working for ever-lasting tranquility

While the Pakistani military had stepped up its operation to flush out the so-called remnants of Al Qaeda and Taliban from Waziristan in the tribal areas bordering unstable Afghanistan, I boarded the PIA flight from Islamabad for Kabul where the Americans are planning to stay for a long time and trying to implant a new political culture through another version of the Marshall Plan. They are attempting to bring some of the “good Taliban on board” in their bid to have an instant success story prior to the US presidential elections. Rocca’s recent visit should be seen in that context also.

Although the Americans and their coalition partners are quietly pursuing the daunting task of creating an Afghan state from the grassroots by implementing the various infrastructure development projects and demobilizing the militias in this remote and landlocked country, invitation by the Americans to a group of Pakistani journalists, of which I was a part, was itself significant.

Overshadowed by the events in Iraq, which has attracted the world attention and intense criticism, it was perhaps thought prudent, I presume, to show us some of their “state building” effort in Afghanistan in view of generally growing anti-American sentiments owing to the Bush Administration’s policy of unilateralism and abuse of human rights.

Having covered Afghanistan under the Soviet occupation I was curious to know how things have shaped up in that country since the Geneva accords and Bonn agreement, and whether it is possible for the Americans to put in place viable political structures in a country which they had subjected to carpet bombing in order to make them “behave properly”?

The general impression I gathered during the six-day conducted visit to the country, which is being effectively managed by the two former UNOCAL consultants — President Hamid Karzai and the US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad — is that the Americans are there for a long physical presence to protect their interests in Central Asia, particularly the Caspian basin and the territories along the Chinese border. But they are certainly in a hurry for a success story prior to the next US presidential elections, without realizing that insensitivity to that country’s religious and cultural ethos can do more harm and can be counter-productive.

The flight to Kabul was full of the Afghans travelling back to their country on special travel documents. Most of them were sent back from the Gulf region and some of them were from Pakistan. A young man with trimmed beard and moustache was sitting next to me on window seat. When the plane approached Kabul he anxiously started looking outside. I noticed that he was quietly weeping and trying to wipe the spilling tears. He was returning “home” after 11 years after being a musafir in Iran. He could not control his emotions when the plane landed and rolled on the taxi-way at the Kabul airport. Ali Khan was another passenger who was returning home after being fed up with hard manual labour in the UAE. After years of hard labour he decided to return and start a new life with a total saving of $5000. Also on board were some Pakistani businessmen who were going to Kabul to attend a conference of ECO countries.

But as soon as we disembarked I got the feeling that security environment in the battered Afghan capital is fragile despite years of international presence. It was evident from the fact that when we were ushered into the VIP section in a bulletproof van, armed personnel of the US special force was with us. As we drove from the airport, the battered buildings and civic infrastructure in shambles could not escape our attention. We were later told that it was the result of years of civil war both during and prior to Taliban rule. Owing to security environment our caravan of heavily protected vehicles was diverted thrice on way to the US embassy where we had to drop a US embassy official and pick up our local and American coordinators who later took us to a guesthouse, not very far from the US and Pakistan embassy. A local person later told me that the premises, in which the guesthouse is located, serving mostly Italian food, belonged to Engineer Ahmad Shah. This, however, could not be independently confirmed.

The precarious security environment was also evident from the fact that the US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, like other embassy staff was compelled to live inside the embassy compound in specially made container living quarters, we were told.

A visit to the first Moghal emperor Zaheeruddin Babur’s grave generated nostalgic feelings. The compound had been subjected to years of neglect and an attempt is being made now to restore the old structure. But to my utter surprise it was also the first time the US embassy ladies had visited the place, perhaps due to security consideration.

After a city tour as we settled down at the guest house and waited for our hosts to take us to Gandamak — a place where we were supposed to have early supper, we came to know that Kabul was suffering from acute power shortage and a vast area was on generators. We were informed that the traditional sources of power generation were rendered useless owing to years of civil war evidence of which could be seen all over Kabul. After sunset major part of the city generally drifts into darkness, with patches of pale amber lights due to power shortage. Nightlife is still a far cry, except for the especially designated and well-protected places, I was told. Perhaps Gandamak was one of those “secure” places for the Americans where they are served ham and ‘drinks’ and other dishes of their like.

It was surprising that after more than two years presence in Kabul and such a huge emphasis on the post-war Afghan reconstruction, power supply remains a big problem.

According to a USAID document, the agency has provided 2.9 million litters of emergency diesel fuel for Kabul, which was equivalent to 72 tanker trucks to provide 4,200 MW-hours. In such a situation the coalition efforts are focused on creating a non-predatory economic/political structure. But unless that will allow everyone a stake in it, it will remain ineffective.

Our meeting with the American ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad was very productive as it indicated that “all is well” perception between Pakistan and the US-led coalition in the context of Afghanistan was in fact deceptive. This was clear when he reiterated his claim that Taliban and Al Qaeda remnants and that of Gulbadin Hekmatyar were hiding inside Pakistan. A Foreign Office spokesman in Islamabad subsequently refuted the charge.

But one must understand that what Khalilzad had said was not without a purpose and without the approval of the State Department. Both Khalilzad and the US force commander in Afghanistan, Gen David Barno were persistent in repeating what is embarrassing for Islamabad. Both of them claimed that foreign fighters belonging to Al Qaeda elements and Taliban were holed up in Pakistan’s tribal areas and they wanted Islamabad to “do more” to wipe them out.

I also gathered from these conversations and during a background senior commander of the US Special Operations that while they would like Pakistan to be “engaged” in its tribal areas, they would pursue Al Qaeda and Taliban leaders to either catch them or force them on a constant run, and for that they would not hesitate to launch sneaking operations on our side of the border. The recent border intrusions by the coalition and Afghan national army units into Pakistani tribal areas were sufficient indicators?

Our visit came at a time when the Americans were trying to extend Karzai government’s writ outside Kabul and it became evident that they had compelled Pakistan to launch the sandwich operation in its tribal area while the US and Afghan troops waited for the wanted men to nab them. The operation was perhaps planned to preempt any possible “typical spring offensive directed against the Kabul government” headed by President Karzai. While the operation caused alienation against Pakistan in the tribal areas, it certainly enabled the Afghan central government to push for its programme of national reconciliation, which the government in Kabul has rolled out. It attempts to bring back into the Afghan mainstream of political peace process the rank and file of the so-called “non-criminal” elements of Taliban or Hizb-i-Islami through reintegration process.

In fact a few days before we landed in Kabul, the US and Karzai government leaders had held a meeting with probables to sort out conditions for such a relationship. But even in that meeting some of the warlords and commanders had reportedly expressed reservations, we were told. The Americans claimed that during the past few months many elements of the rank and file of Hizb-i-Islami and Al Qaeda wanted to “come back in the political process.”

It was also confirmed by some officials in background meetings that perhaps some contact has been established with the so-called “non-criminal” Taliban and there were also reports that some men belonging to Pakistan-based Taliban elements and that of Hekmatyar’s had been contacted by Kabul for reconciliation talks. There were also indications that Kabul had offered various kinds of inducements to the various Pushtoon maliks who had been supportive of the former king in the tribal area, to join hands. In return, they were offered among other things revival of old sanads with much more enhanced purse and other facilities.

Perhaps the American pressure on Pakistan to step up operation in the tribal areas was aimed at convincing such elements that they were isolated and should forget about any reinforcements. Zalmay Khalilzad and Mr Karzai, who as UNOCAL consultants had much experience in dealing with the former Taliban elements and organizing red carpet treatment for them in the US, would feel more comfortable in launching a dispensation inclusive of the “good Taliban”. But to what extent have they succeeded is yet to be seen.

This objective was also dictating the Afghan election registration strategy, in which the Afghan refugees living in Pakistan and Iran have not yet been registered including most of the Pushtoons living in the south of the county, where opposition to Karzai government was still ominous. Around 3.5 million are still residing in Iran and Pakistan.

Some analysts argue that the “returning diaspora can puncture the peace process” before the society actually attains a degree of relative normality and calm. Perhaps that is the reason the US is not keen on the return of refugees from Pakistan and Iran until its set-up in Kabul is strong enough to sustain itself and it is successful in bringing many of the “good Taliban on board.” According to plans, elections in Afghanistan will be held in September.

(To be concluded)



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