THE dams built so labori ously by the government against politicians and political activities over the last two years and ten months seem headed for bursting, as the elections have started looking like a reality rather than a dubious pledge.
Still, there are misgivings and a host of rules, regulation and orders block their progress, but the political parties are undaunted and they are taking no chances. All of them are mustering forces for the coming elections.
Factories of speculation and rumours have, meanwhile, started operating round-the-clock. The situation is overflowing with unanswered questions. Following his lengthy meeting with President Musharraf, the utterances of Pir of Pagara, the political, religious and tribal leader who wishes to be known as the army’s favourite tout, are being taken by many political segments as articulation of the views of the powers that be.
Reputed for soothsaying, albeit mostly for erroneous predictions, Pagara’s suggestion for postponing polls for six months has been generally viewed as a possibility the rulers have not ruled out in case the game plan does not come off. That has further muddied the already contaminated waters.
The most commonly asked question is: Whether Benazir would return to participate in the elections or exert her weight from a distance is perturbing pro-establishment parties as well as the establishment itself. The government is determined to keep her out. Gen Musharraf makes no secret of his intentions on this score. Her statements from abroad (a flurry of them get reported practically every other day) produce clouds. She is playing her hand close and handling her next move like a sword over the political scene. She has indicated all kinds of possibilities and acted so that the issue would remain unsettled as long as she wishes things to remain unresolved. On the other hand, General Musharraf keeps on reiterating that she would be sent to prison on return. Politically speaking, that should be a good place for Ms Bhutto to lead the party in the elections.
The other important leader, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, is not to return to the country in the near future, indeed not for another seven years. Ten years is the reported period for which he agreed — or was made to agree — to remain in exile. So he is personally not to be a direct participant in the October elections. The move to circumvent this handicap with the appointment of Shahbaz Sharif as party president has also been thwarted, as the government has made it abundantly clear that he would be sent back if he returns.
But the party the Sharifs lead should still be a major player in the polls. It could be in a pivotal position if the PML (N) and the PPP reach some sort of understanding for collaborating against the present regime, that is, by putting up a sufficient number of joint candidates to upset the official applecart. What they agree upon would have significant bearing on the poll’s outcome, regardless of the planned official dispensation for the new elected houses.
The most active group so far has been Pakistan Muslim League’s Q group. Except for its partners in the Grand National Alliances, all political elements label it as the king’s party and accuse the administration of patronizing it. PML-Q denies the charge and so does the government, but there is telltale evidence.
Rana Ikram Rabbani, a former PPP provincial minister and its leader of the opposition in the Punjab Assembly at one stage, recently joined PML-Q. At a reception to welcome Rabbani, former National Assembly member, Rao Qaiser Ali, expressed his gratitude to the provincial communication minister, Gen Tariq, for bringing Rabbani to the party’s fold. Other leaders at the meeting, who like to present their party as a genuine political group and themselves as independent politicians in no way linked with the government, were reportedly taken aback.
Journalists covering the event were requested to ignore his stray revelation. A few of them obliged; others felt that their readers had a right to accurate information and carried the news in their publications. Rao has a reputation for being a straightforward person; he never liked to beat about the bush as a legislator and apparently intends to maintain and strengthen his approach to politics. He thus let the cat out of the bag.
While most of the notable leaders have been active for quite some time, negotiating for possible seat adjustments and building inter-party understanding, they have looked like people running in circles because they could not cast off disbelief. The air has still not fully cleared for many politicians, but the allotment of symbols to parties and the commencement of the process of filing nomination papers has brought them to their feet and galvanized them into getting down to practical action, as against closed-door deliberations marked by ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’.
Pro-government elements are working hard and according to opponents, with full assistance from the administration, to persuade unhappy members of other parties to join them. Ikram Rabbani’s induction in PML-Q was one among numerous such developments. He became reportable because of his previous status in the PPP. But he was ripe for the picking because he had been bypassed for heading the Punjab PPP. Resentful of his party, Rabbani was reportedly looking for a face-saving exit. One does not know if the association with PML-Q would enhance his credentials or tarnish them. There is, in fact, already a rush to join PML-Q. A number of second-string politicians from other parties, mainly from PML-N, but a few from PPP, too, have shifted allegiance in the last couple of weeks. The administration’s support, plus the possibility of being a part of the next government, is sufficient incentive to attract politically-known individuals of wavering loyalties. Most workers follow their leaders without asking too many questions — political parties of the country are built around individuals, lower-level leaders also have their groups of faithful workers.
But the rush for joining PML-Q is a double-edged sword. It can grow into a stampede of small-time politicians on the move and cause a crisis for the party in the award of tickets. There are far too many applicants for a limited number of seats. The graduation condition has helped contain aspirants by ruling out many prospective candidates. That, however, is not the end of the rat race.
Every politician has some member of the family holding the prestigious degree and he is said to be pressurizing the party for a ticket for his son, wife, sister, daughter or some other trustworthy relation for what is claimed as a ‘safe’ seat. What the hopefuls are looking for is election with the help of angels. But politics is a field where angels fear to tread.
However, being good Muslims, these politicians are confident of receiving heavenly aid. The problem is that such sustenance is unlikely to be offered to all and sundry. Chances are of more pre-polls disappointment than post-elections despair. This may not be true only of pro-government elements, but also for those in the opposition’s camp.
THE dams built so labori ously by the government against politicians and political activities over the last two years and ten months seem headed for bursting, as the elections have started looking like a reality rather than a dubious pledge.
