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July 25, 2004
Review: Setting universal norms
FOR analysts and commentators, particularly those writing on politics, conflict and the military, the SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) Yearbook should be the most valuable publication on their bookshelves. This is a book that encompasses some of the most up-to-date and otherwise hard to find data that is publicly available but at the same time not easy to access. It combines the traditional documentary and data analysis work that SIPRI has been carrying out for the past 34 years in the field of security and conflicts, military spending and armaments, non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament.
The book has received new importance following the September 11 attacks in the US. Animated debate at popular, political, media and academic levels about the events surrounding 9/11 has given rise to many questions and few answers. In the words of the editor, Alyson Bailes, the SIPRI Yearbook aims at “reflecting this turbulence without — if possible — getting too much carried away by it”. In its capacity as recorder of events, the institute must try to reflect the full complexity of current security processes, not just their dominant strands.
The book then becomes more specific as it moves on to talk about the non-military threat spectrum. Here, the discussion is about the Comprehensive Risk Analysis Switzerland Project. It then goes on to define what non-military threat is, its trends and the interconnection of risks. Using the Switzerland example, the author talks about the overall assessment of the country’s risk situation — the formulating of requirements to be met by the means to preserve existence.
In the first formal part of the book, which gets even more interesting, the subject focuses on the Euro-Atlantic system and global security. Here, the policies and doctrine of the US are studied and discussed. The use of force in America’s evolving approach is seen and its agenda for counter-terrorism is discussed — the Homeland Security institution, the US and Iraq and the US-European debates.
The chapter also talks about the institutional developments and the relationship between Nato and the EU. Russia also comes under focus with discussion of Russia’s war on terrorism, its policy in a Euro-Atlantic setting, and enhanced cooperation with Nato.
The best thing about this book is the quality of its writers, which is world class. On the chapter on the nuclear confrontation with South Asia, M.V. Ramana and Zia Mian give an overview of the situation by starting with the Lahore declaration, the crisis in 2002, the changed international climate after 9/11, threats and nuclear brinkmanship and perceptions of nuclear deterrence.
In this chapter, the writers argue that following the nuclear tests of 1998, Indian home minister L.K. Advani claimed that India’s decisive step to become a nuclear weapon state had brought about a qualitatively new state in India-Pakistan relations, particularly in finding a lasting solution to the Kashmir problem. “It is clear,” say the writers, “there is now a qualitatively new state of relations between the two countries — an altogether more dangerous one.”
The new relationship, they say, is more belligerent and aggressive and nuclear threats play a prominent role. They have also been major military crises and small wars and there is a likelihood of such occurrences in the future. The military on both sides, but especially in India, have been making plans to deal with such contingencies, including the use of nuclear weapons. The situation is likely to become worse with the further nuclear deployments by both India and Pakistan.
The one redeeming feature in the aftermath of the nuclear tests has been the emergence of an active peace movement in South Asia. Both India and Pakistan now have national coalitions of civil society groups working for nuclear disarmament and peace. Over and above the desire to avoid war and potential nuclear catastrophe, the large costs imposed by nuclear armaments on the already poor economies and the environmental impacts of the process of manufacturing and testing these weapons have been major motivating factors. The authors conclude by saying that the success of this movement may be the best hope for true and sustained peace in the region.
The statistics given in the Yearbook are mind boggling. There are figures about world military expenditure, global resource allocation, military expenditure by region, by category, the 15 major spender countries in 2002, countries with the greatest changes in military expenditure, planned military expenditure and defence budget deficits, etc.
In hindsight, one of the most interesting chapters for me was the chapter on the International Criminal Court. In the midst of the US scandal over prisoner abuse in Iraq and the underlying implications, this seems a very pertinent reading, if nothing else but for background material. The ICC, which came into force in 2002, is discussed from all angles.
The author lists the signatories, the background to the court and the current controversy surrounding it. The initiators of the ICC intended the court to set a universal norm. However, because the non-European great powers — China, India and Russia — have not signed or ratified the treaty, there is a long way to go before the ICC reaches this goal. The interesting thing is that while the US has been the most vocal opponent, it is not alone. The writer argues that the concerns of the US are not without foundation.
The debate over the ICC has also given rise to uncertainty over the future of peace operations, particularly UN-authorized peace operations. These are some of the issues that come out from this chapter.
In conclusion, the SIPRI Yearbook is a volume of intelligent and incisive information collated together by an institute that has managed to get some of the best authorities in the field to write on their areas of expertise. Given the volume of information presented, this is not altogether an easy read. But one who does delve into it emerges much the wiser from the effort.
SIPRI Yearbook 2003: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
OUP, UK. Available with Oxford University Press, Plot # 38, Sector 15, Korangi Industrial Area, Karachi. Tel: 111-693-673
Email: ouppak@theoffice.net Website: www.oup.com.pk
ISBN 0-19-926570-4
847pp. £70
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