December 21, 2003

THERE are books and then there are BOOKS. Sir Martin Rees’ Our Final Century: Will the Human Race Survive the Twenty-First Century? doesn’t just fall into the latter category, it explodes into it. It carries with it an aura of such immensity; it tackles questions of such magnitude, that it leaves its readers dazed, confused and saddled with a momentary loss of perspective. Most importantly, however, it leaves the reader in a state of retrospection, pregnant with questions and burgeoning with thought.

As the sub-title suggests, Sir Martin is not one for asking simple questions. A leading cosmologist and an authority on space science, Rees delves into the very essence of our existence as a species, how we got here and, of more pertinence, where we are headed. And although this forms the root of the book, the branches of thought and discussion encapsulated within are plentiful. Rees’ main concern centres on any number of hazards, man-made or natural or indeed cosmological (in the metaphysically vague shape of black holes or asteroids), that could destroy the world, or at least, the human race in the 21st century. He argues, with 9/11 clearly in mind, the cold war still fresh in memory, and rapidly advancing scientific and technological developments, that the human race is at risk from a growing number of threats.

The nature of these threats forms the basis of each chapter, and can be read as self-contained essays. His journey begins, rather cheerfully, with the dangers that technology and its unchecked, exponential growth and advancement brings us. That the last century brought about more changes than one could imagine is a source of comfort and, indeed, pride to most of the human race. What Rees does so skillfully is to raise the question, not only of the changes that this century will bring about, but the nature of those changes. Who is to say that humans, the only species thus far to so irredeemably alter the physical landscape of the earth, will not, as Rees provocatively suggests, alter the “fundamentals of humanity” itself? Perhaps the human form will become malleable and easier to manipulate through implants or new drugs. But, as he does so admirably throughout the book, Rees tempers extravagant predictions with more sombre realities. Radical new inventions or changes, usually occur, he says, out of coincidence rather than design. Failed forecasts scientists made early last century as to how aeroplanes, travel and life on other planets would be by the year 2000 only serve to place caution in today’s scientists.

Of even more concern should be Rees’ theory that any catastrophic disaster, be it nuclear, biological or otherwise, may well be due to human error as much as human terror. Spelling out several scenarios of what may happen in case of a bio attack — say a release of 100 kilograms of anthrax or release of the smallpox virus — is disturbing. Further arguing that super viruses can be created accidentally as a result of a scientific error in a laboratory is harrowing.

Proceeding to make a case for this occurrence, possibly, at the hands of one deranged human is beyond terrifying. Not so much because of the results of such an attack (they don’t bear thinking about) but more because there is so little, in theory, that we can do to stop such an individual from literally wiping out 2-3 million people, or even more.

But then perhaps there is. By the end of this century, there could be a scenario, Rees argues, whereby everyone is under a form of surveillance and all our actions are being watched in order to pre-empt criminals. And what of those who watch over us? Who watches the watchers? To make it palatable to everyone, the only way it could be done would be to have everyone watching each other, says Rees. And given the modern world’s penchant for voyeurism in the shape of reality TV shows such as Big Brother, Survivor, et al, this may not be the pipe dream it initially seems.

Scientific research, and increasingly, the ethics of research with regard to how far scientists should go in the name of research and the motives behind any research also come under the microscope, to play on a bad pun. The mathematics of extreme risks, as in how high does the risk of a certain experiment have to be in order for scientists to restrain from taking it (the classic Pascalian wager) and who should decide makes for a compelling read, despite its rather academic overtones.

Thereafter, the book delves into the realm of quantum physics, cosmology and doomsday philosophers. Because the concepts tackled here are of such an infinite and specialist nature, the read, for a layman with little working knowledge of quantum physics, becomes a little difficult. Grasping the ‘doomsday principle’ which hints at the human race’s position in time is just about do-able, and at times revelatory (there have existed in total about 60 billion humans ever and there might be no more than 100 billion ever, that is, there is an end in sight to the human race).

Rees then plunges into space and time continuums and parallel dimensions, galaxies and cosmos and how they can cause not just the end of humans, but the end of existence, confusion may arise.

Rees ends on a more optimistic and eminently fascinating note, with the possibilities of a future beyond the earth and alien life. He captures succinctly the truly miniscule nature of our existence in the larger scheme of things while simultaneously addressing the possibility, equally minuscule but not non-existent, of being able to survive on Mars, other planets or even space.

What Rees has done here is to document the ‘whos’, ‘whys’, ‘whens’ and ‘then whats’ of a disaster waiting to happen. He has managed to eloquently translate the sum of our fears and apprehensions about technology and continued scientific research. Above all, and especially in the closing chapters, he brings home our true significance (or lack of) in the larger cosmos. “If our solar system’s entire life cycle were to be viewed ‘fast forward’ in a single year,” he enthuses, “then all recorded history would be less than a minute in early June. The twentieth century would flash by in a third of a second. The next fraction of a second would be ‘critical’: in the twenty-first century, humanity is more at risk than ever before from misapplication of science.” This then is our guide to the next century. Treasure it for it may well be our last.

 

Our Final Century: Will the Human Race Survive the Twenty-First Century?

By Martin Rees

William Heinemann, London. Available with Paramount Books, 152/O, Block 2, PECH Society, Karachi-75400

Tel: 021-4310030. Email: paramount@cyber.net.pk

ISBN 0-434-00809-5

228pp. Rs1,295

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