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May 5, 2002
REVIEW: Will there be peace?
AHMED Rashid first went to Central Asia in 1988, tracking, as he says, ‘the chimera’ of the war in Afghanistan. His aim was to learn more about the minority ethnic groups living in the north of Afghanistan, who were making a name for themselves in their struggle against the occupying forces of the Russians. To understand them, Rashid had inevitably to find their origins, which lay in Central Asia, in the former republics of the Soviet Union. Three years later, on December 8, 1991, the USSR ceased to exist and five new independent states were established, namely, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
Subsequent visits to Central Asia resulted in his first book, The resurgence of Central Asia: Islam or nationalism? (1994) But it was too soon in their existence as independent countries for him to answer the question which interested him most: would the leaders of these new states use their ethnic identity to build a democratic order in place of the centralized Soviet system or, in the absence of any constructive development, would ‘Islamic fundamentalism’ inject itself into the fabric of society?
His latest book, Jihad: the rise of militant Islam in Central Asia which follows his award-winning Taliban, Islam, Oil and the new great game in Central Asia (2000), takes him back to the region to look again at the emergent Central Asian states. In his Introduction, he examines the whole concept of jihad, which, too frequently those in the West understand to mean a ‘holy war’ in the larger political context.
Instead, as Rashid rightly points out the greater jihad involves a personal inner struggle to be a good Muslim; only the lesser jihad sanctions rebellion against an unjust ruler, whether Muslim or not. But by radicalizing the use of the lesser jihad, Rashid maintains that the extremist ‘fundamentalists’ have distorted the meaning of Islam as exemplified by the life of the Prophet.
“Nowhere in Muslim writings or tradition,” he writes, “does jihad sanction the killing of innocent non-Muslim men, women, and children, or even fellow Muslims, on the basis of ethnicity, sect, or belief.”
In the first part of his book, Rashid describes the history of Central Asia and the indigenous Islamic movements which date from the sixth century AD until the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the communist era in the late twentieth century. Only by understanding their origins, which he believes are also tied up with the region’s geography, can one understand developments today. He also assesses the successes and failures of the regimes to date.
Part II of his book examines the growth of Islamic movements in Central Asia since 1991. Of these, the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP) in Tajikistan, the Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT), which works underground in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistsan, and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) are the three biggest. What emerges from his analysis is how, due to government repression of even moderate Islam, these three movements which initially had little in common in terms of ideology and agenda, are now being driven together in a movement where social and humanitarian issues play little, if any, part.
The HT, for instance, is a pan-Islamic movement, which originated in the Middle East and has as its goal the unification of Central Asia, Xinjiang Province in China and the entire Islamic community under a caliphate More dangerously perhaps in the view of events surrounding 11 September 2001, these movements began to identify with the Taliban in neighbouring Afghanistan as well as Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda, both of whom espoused the most repressive version of jihad in the name of Islam.
A persistent theme in Ahmed Rashid’s writings is the failure of the international community and local governments to stop the spread of extremism. The same was true of the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Bereft of the basic social amenities which those living in the industrialized West take for granted — jobs, food, freedom of thought and action — young men can become easy targets for those preaching the brotherhood of Islam and jihad against the infidel.
A surprising statistic emerges: as the leaders grow older, the population gets younger; currently more than 60 per cent of Central Asia’s 50 million inhabitants are less than 25 years old. But it is also important to recognize that the cultural vacuum which exists in the Central Asian republics cannot simply be filled by imitating the customs and traditions of the West. They need, writes Rashid, to build on their own rich heritage in order “to create a modern identity from their own past”.
Ahmed Rashid, although a veteran of the Central Asian scene, makes no pretence at being able to predict how the situation will develop. Like Afghanistan, the Central Asian states are at a crossroads. Either their leaders will ignore what has happened in Afghanistan and continue to let terrorism in the name of Islamic fundamentalism destroy the social fabric of their societies. Or, instead of clinging to power ‘at the expense of all else,’ they might have the wisdom to take advantage of the international community’s renewed interest in the area and work towards building up their countries so that the hungry and unemployed do not resort to violence.
Experience has also shown that when the interests of ‘great powers’ are at stake, those of the local people are likely to be sacrificed. Rashid is therefore sanguine about the practical (as opposed to the theoretical) implications of international involvement in the area. Until recently, the average European had given even less thought to Central Asia than the Europeans of the Middle Ages who used to cross over the vast landscape, in fear of the Mongol hordes, as they journeyed along the silk route.
Yet today this same terrain is the repository of the world’s last great natural energy reserves: an estimated 200 billion barrels of oil. As such, despite principled assertions to the contrary, it has the potential to become the setting for the next ‘Great Game’ between Russia, the United States and China as they compete for access in order to establish pipelines.
Rashid does however, end on a note of optimism. The prospects for ‘real peace’, in Central Asia, he says, have never looked brighter. If this is the case, and extremism does give way to moderation, is it perhaps too much to hope that the lives of the people will be improved for their own sakes, not because of the economic potential which the area represents for foreign bidders in distant cities?
Jihad: the rise of militant Islam in Central Asia
By Ahmed Rashid
Yale University Press Published in Pakistan by Vanguard Books, 45-The Mall, Lahore
Tel: 042-7243783, 7243779
Email: vbl@brain.net.pk
ISBN 969-402-361-0 281pp. Rs695
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