Capitulation

Published Mar 03, 2013 12:30am

TALIBAN, two; politicians, zero. Not a bad start to the year if you’re an anti-state militant. You’ve drawn the enemy’s blood repeatedly and yet somehow turned its attention towards peace talks.

In fact, the TTP has turned counter-insurgency on its head: it’s the state that is supposed to pound the militants until they are left with no choice but to drag their bloodied and battered selves to the negotiating table — not the other way round.

Nobody really thinks the TTP wants peace. Neither the maulanas talking peace at their APC nor the secular ANP talking peace at its APC believe it.

How can they? They know the Pakistani Taliban too well: some because they’re cut from the same cloth; others because the Taliban have risen from their midst.

So what’s going on?

Think of it as pre-election posturing. And arguably the Taliban’s greatest victory.

Start with the politicians. Elections mean a surfeit of targets: politicians campaigning; voters turning up at rallies and at polling booths; local influentials running around trying to stitch up winning coalitions.

If you’re a politician, it’s precisely the time you don’t want to be the focus of the TTP’s attention.

Fata is a new prize and an old complication: with political parties permitted to field candidates for the first time, the politicians have to get out there and fight a new game — in a land that has politically and socially been turned upside down by a decade of insurgency.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is and has been an electoral patchwork and is again shaping up to be intensely competitive come election time.

Neither in Fata nor in KP can politicians and political parties take anything for granted the next few months. But the already hard, political, slog becomes infinitely more complicated if you’re being walloped by the Taliban.

So it’s time to buy some time.

The Taliban says it wants peace, we’ll give them all the talks about talks they can handle, the politicians are thinking.

Maybe the Taliban will bite, maybe they won’t, but it’s worth a shot with a general election on the cards.

Who knows, maybe instead of 20 suicide bombings, 10 devastating attacks and five high-profile assassinations during campaign season, there’ll be five suicide bombings, three devastating attacks and one high-profile assassination, the politician willing to sue for peace is saying privately.

What about leadership? What about rallying the public against the greatest danger to state and society since state and society contrived to lose half the country some four decades ago? What about doing the right thing?

Pfft. It’s election time.

Nothing matters more to a politician than winning an election. Not in India, not in Italy, not in Israel, not in the US. Why should Pakistan be any different?

Unspoken Rule No 1: you can’t win an election if you’re dead, so better to live to cower another day.

Now, what are the Taliban up to? What’s this business of attacking ruthlessly while talking peace?

That the Taliban have proved to be fairly un-strategic and not very bright has been to Pakistan’s enduring luck over the past decade or so.

Swat, for example, became both the apogee and nadir of Taliban power because they weren’t patient enough, or smart enough, to consolidate the gains there after Nizam-i-Adl had been ceded by the state.

Instead, they spilled out into neighbouring districts and tore apart the artifice that Swat was a localised problem with a localised solution that the state had so cravenly helped the Taliban construct.

But now the Taliban have conjured up a masterstroke: inserting themselves into the political course and with it, driving a stake through the possibility of the elusive societal ‘consensus’ against militancy emerging.

Count the ways in which the Taliban have racked up wins with the devilishly timed offer of talks.

One, the political class is once again being assembled into pro-Taliban and anti-Taliban camps.

Since Swat and South Waziristan, talk of talks was the remit of the extreme right and Taliban Khan — and both were hammered for it. While public opinion had never come close to coalescing around decisive military action, the idea of talks had faded as the option mainstream politics preferred.

Now, with elections upon us and politicians needing to fan out among the people, the Taliban have dangled a carrot: go soft on us and we’ll turn our cross-hairs elsewhere.

Cue politicians falling over themselves to grab the Taliban carrot.

Two, the old confusion in society and the media has been resurrected.

There was no ‘Malala moment’ last October because there is no coherent counter-narrative to militancy and extremism — at least no counter-narrative that has widespread traction.

But public suspicion of the Taliban’s goals, if not their ideology, had grown to the point that uncomfortable questions were being asked, loudly and aggressively on TV and in the street.

Now, because inherent in the idea of talks is reasonableness, the creeping image of monstrousness that the Taliban had begun to acquire has been swiftly halted by the offer of talks.

Yes, they still kill and maim, the public and media can once again debate, but perhaps there is some humanity in the Taliban after all.

Third, the civil-military divide is wider than ever.

The army high command says, we can’t go for the kill unless the politicians back us and the public supports us.

Assume — and this is a fairly big assumption — that the army means it.

The politicians are falling over themselves to grab the Taliban carrot. The right-wing in the media is giving John Lennon a run for his money. And society is slipping back towards the default state of Pakistani nature: confusion.

Where does that leave the consensus, political and social, the army demands? Nowhere.

Game, set and the first half of 2013 to the Taliban.

The writer is a member of staff.

cyril.a@gmail.com Twitter: @cyalm


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Comments (16) (Closed)


karim
Mar 04, 2013 06:35pm
Taliban have won the war in Pakistan, unfortunately.
Parvez
Mar 03, 2013 07:28pm
Your reading of the army's position is iffy and not convincing..........the rest is brilliant.
Akram
Mar 03, 2013 10:04am
Brilliant analysis. As usual, Cyril excels himself. Rafia and Faiza , read and learn.
Abdullah N.
Mar 03, 2013 05:54pm
Does anyone seriously believe that dialogue with Talibans is possible without the blessings of Saudis & Americans ?
NASAH (USA)
Mar 03, 2013 05:27pm
Taliban strategy: Terrorize and Divide. Pakistan should respond with carrots and big sticks. Then Swatize North Waziristan.
pathanoo
Mar 03, 2013 03:07pm
An absolutely accurate title with a narrative which is as truthful and brilliant as I have ever seen in DAWN. TTP is hurting. They know that the people, except the die hard sectarian haters, are turning against them. Once the people stop being afraid of the TTP, their days are numbered. TTP has no intentions of abiding by the laws, living peacefully collaboratively in the society. That would eviscerate their reason for existing. TTP just want some breathing space and people's attention diverted just enough to provide them time to recoup their losses. These are mad with hatred, deranged people who pass themselves as the defender of the faith. Truth be told, they are not even humans. The only way to deal with them is to exterminate them.
Cyrus Howell
Mar 03, 2013 02:04pm
"Think of it as pre-election posturing, and arguably the Taliban
Shahid Bajwa
Mar 03, 2013 09:25am
The analysis is correct, but I think this is just a replay of Swat. All parties will unite to give Taliban everything they want, except more territory outside tribal areas. A short peace will come. Cruelty and violence will continue inside Tribal areas and Pakistan because Taliban would like to finish off their enemies everywhere. Public will see horrible mobile footage of lashings, hangings and slaughter. Then with the elections over, the whole country, including politicians and army, will launch a decisive attack on Taliban. The human price will be huge, but the end may come within a year or so.
umesh bhagwat
Mar 04, 2013 01:02am
It is the US which is backing the taliban!
hashmi
Mar 03, 2013 04:06pm
Well written Cyril Almeeda is doing excellent job . Just think of what moral values we have as far as the politicians and other forces we have in our country.
Amjad Wyne
Mar 03, 2013 03:45pm
Do we still have a PPP governmnet in the country or they left the scene?
nasir siddique
Mar 03, 2013 03:36pm
We should never negotiate with terrorists. We will soon concede on everything and give in o the terrorists so that our politicians can stay alive and in power.
Ajaya K Dutt
Mar 03, 2013 03:25pm
Right on the spot. Very accurate and apt.
malik
Mar 03, 2013 04:32am
They are all scared after the klling of Mr. Bilour. Therefore they have no option except to yield to their negotiations. By the way what is the mandate of this Jirga they are sending to TTP? What if the Jirga secedes the country to TTP are we supposed to abide by it?
Shaukat Alvi
Mar 03, 2013 05:17am
International powers involved in war against terrorism should force Pakistanis not to accept the deal without TTP accepting the surrender. This is a clear stance of our Army lost the game and the killing TTP has done so far has been ligitimized by these headless politicians. For them all the kills they have done does not matter. Army should come out with clear stance before it is too late to fix the problem and the terror spills over to other areas. Nawaz Shareef is planning to become Amir Ul Momineen and this is a bigger game than it looks now!
Raoul Ciao
Mar 03, 2013 06:14am
Pakistan badly needs these elections. It badly needs the army to become subservient to the civil leadership post elections. If, and a big one, that happens, post elections will be the time to ggo for the kill. The Taliba may believe they have divided the house, however if democracy truly wins and the army understands it needs to cede powers post these key elections, the nation shall slowly mount a multi pronged assault on the TTP and other kin. The reason - they are clearly anti democracy and clearly anti nation, as in they nly want a nation in the name of a very narrow definition of Islam,and will exclude a large chunk - which democracy abhors.