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The Monti option


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PAKISTAN will hold its next parliamentary and presidential elections this year. Many Pakistanis see this first ever completion of its term by an elected civilian government as cause for celebration.

Unfortunately, a full term has hardly enabled the government to respond to the country’s challenges. On the contrary, Pakistan’s problems have proliferated: terrorism, sectarian and ethnic violence, criminality and lawlessness, growing poverty, an energy crisis, financial decline and multifaceted external threats and interventions. Pakistan’s trajectory is towards a tragic explosion.

Pakistan’s multiple crises, at the core, are the consequence of bad governance or no governance.

Good governance flows from good leadership and good institutions. A country can progress only if its government wants it to do so. Misrule can only be prevented by robust institutions committed to the rule of law.

Sadly, since the 1960s, Pakistan’s rulers have systematically destroyed or corrupted the central institutions of the state. Our short history is a chronicle of disasters: the 1965 war, the destructive experiment in populist socialism; the country’s break up; the induction of Zia’s Islamism; the lost decade of democracy; externally dictated involvement in the disastrous ‘war on terror’ and, most recently, a Hobbesian era of ‘all against all’.

Today, as our leaders plan on ways to retain or regain power, policy analysts elsewhere are planning for contingencies that include: Pakistan’s takeover by extremists or its social and political disintegration. Foreign encouragement of secessionist and ethnic forces in Pakistan is ongoing. External intervention to prevent an ‘Islamist’ capture of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons is very much on the table.

To avert eventual disaster, structural and policy reforms are essential in at least four areas: security, economy, politics and bureaucracy.

Security: Pakistan is under military attack from within and without by terrorists: Al Qaeda, the TTP and affiliated militant groups; by sectarian groups; and from the insurgency in Balochistan, encouraged by Pakistan’s adversaries. India’s recent internal troubles could lead its politicians to once again use Pakistan as a political diversion.

For strategic clarity, Pakistan’s security policy needs to be guided by certain principles. One, the state cannot surrender its monopoly on the use of force. No parallel armies can be tolerated on Pakistan’s territory. Two, negotiations are only possible with those ready to accept the authority of the state. Three, all foreigners present in Pakistan without permission should be expelled. Four, Pakistan should be prepared to pursue those who attack its forces and civilians from across the border in Afghanistan (or elsewhere). Five, Pakistan’s security forces must be modernised and equipped to defeat terrorism and defend against conventional threats.

Economy: The government’s continuing reluctance to address the growing fiscal deficit will soon lead to financial collapse. It is essential to introduce a general sales tax and an agricultural income tax; restructure or divest loss-making government corporations; and halt the rampant corruption.

Concrete measures are also needed to: revive domestic and foreign direct investment; expand exports; overcome the energy crisis; build infrastructure; and actively support the private sector. Without these steps, Pakistan will soon become another “least developed country”.

Politics: Pakistan cannot become a modern state so long as it is led by feudal lords, rapacious tycoons and ethnic and religious parties. Pakistan’s politics can be changed. There should be adequate requirements to hold political office including a valid college degree; taxpayer status; no criminal record. Electoral districts dominated by feudal leaders should be reconfigured to break their monopoly. Urban centres should have larger representation to reflect the demographic shift to the cities. The representation of technocrats should be expanded. A strict ban should be imposed on the foreign funding of any political party or representative.

Bureaucracy: Pakistan’s bureaucracy has become an impediment to the country’s socio-economic development. The characteristics of a good bureaucracy are: functional competence; efficient execution and impartiality. These attributes can be achieved in Pakistan through merit-based selection; market-based remuneration; high reward for performance; severe penalties for corruption, partiality, negligence and incompetence. To start, it is essential to eliminate the corrupt, inefficient and partisan officials currently installed in various government offices.

Given their desire to win votes and placate their own constituencies, it is unlikely that any of the major parties will sponsor or endorse such bold but probably unpopular measures.

In the past, policy paralysis would have led to a military takeover. Fortunately, the army’s past unhappy experiences and present preoccupations seem to have precluded this option. A democratic and legal alternative is required. This could be the Monti option.

Eleven months ago, when no political party or leader was prepared to take the onus for imposing unpopular austerity in Italy, agreement was reached to instal an unelected economist, Mario Monti, as prime minister at the head of a ‘technocratic’ government. The departing Monti has saved the Italian economy, even if his success has been incomplete.

The Monti option offers a possible avenue for Pakistan to undertake structural reform and make the policy corrections required to stave off future disaster.

The task of inducting these essential, if unpopular, policies and reforms could be entrusted to the interim government which, under the Pakistan constitution, will be installed for 60 days to oversee the general elections. The mandate of the interim government can be enlarged to introduce the essential policies and reforms, and its period in office extended to 180 days to enable it to perform the extra functions.

It would be best if agreement could be reached, perhaps at an all parties conference, to provide such an extraordinary mandate to the interim government. If this is not possible, the measure could be legalised through a presidential or judicial decree.

If the Monti solution is not acceptable to the government or other political parties, they should prove their commitment to the country by introducing such reform measures themselves.

The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.

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The views expressed by this writer and commenters below do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.

Comments (10) Closed

M Asif K Jan 06, 2013 09:55am
The mentioned problems must be resolved ASAP but the proposed mean to solve it is not a solution instead its a problem of its own. Rule of Law and competent leadership through electrol process is the only solution.
Mohammad Ali Khan Jan 06, 2013 04:21pm
This is not the first time,nor the first person to come up with this wish list.Pakistan lacks the institution which has the strength and organization to bring in the above reforms.Neither do I see any visionary who is capable of convincing people to join in this movement.Nor do I see people are ready to follow a leader in this movement.Any one who dare to start a movement to overthrow the present Junta will have a tragic ending.
Haider Ali Jan 06, 2013 02:16pm
Well written and very good suggestions. But implementing them is another matter. With the rapid downward spiral Pakistan is in, only Military rule and implementation of strict Sharia can save us from complete financial and political disintegration. We are not ready for democracy yet.
Manjit Sahota Jan 06, 2013 09:02am
The author and external agencies he is' implying' in the take over of strategic assets are wrong in their perceptions of the threat. The terrorists can ony create an atmosphere of anarchy to encourage a take over of the army by those who sympathise with them. Then there is no need to snatch the weapons. They would control them.
Akram Jan 06, 2013 01:29pm
interesting idea, I still remember the moin qureshi government, regarded as one of the best we ever had, even though it was only an interim government. But I think the author has a point, in that unpopular policies that are needed, this is a method to implement them, also a way for the main parties to blame someone else for such policies.
ChangaManga Jan 06, 2013 07:36pm
Good point but I still disagree.
kassim Jan 06, 2013 04:51am
The writer has hitted the bull's eye.
Malik Butta Jan 06, 2013 05:12am
Very well written. The author has, unfortunately, not touched on one basic issue, the three distinct educational systems: urdu medium (mostly run-down public sector); english medium (mostly private, quality at a cost); and the madrassahs. This insidious divide has systematically denied opportunities to the majority. At the end of the day the state has to take steps to ensure equitable, affordable and quality access of education, health and security to all of the people. A level playing field will lead to true progress. Having said the above, I agree with most of what the author has said.
p r sharna Jan 06, 2013 05:58am
The author has enumerated his wishes and nothing more. but wishes are not fulfilled without the sincere and honest efforts on the part of stake holders and here primarily the people in general..
ChangaManga Jan 06, 2013 06:26am
Musharraf time was a Monti solution But he did not has ligitimacy. Please let democracy take hold in Pakistan.