The pendulum has swung between passionate embraces, when we prided on calling ourselves the 'most allied ally', to acrimonious and bitter break-ups that led to Pakistan becoming the 'most sanctioned ally'.
American largesse has been most generously bestowed on us when we have had military regimes in power, while elected ones have been at the receiving end of US displeasure. So much for America's commitment to the promotion of democracy and human rights!
This then is the legacy that the two have to overcome as they engage in an attempt to go beyond their cooperation on the single-item agenda of terrorism and enhancing it to a “strategic level”. Since the Washington talks had not started when this piece was written, it would be inappropriate to speculate on the basis of hearsay. The portents, however, appeared favourable, though the challenges are enormous.
The Americans lined up their 'stars', while stressing their desire to see the relationship “go far beyond security”. Pakistan, too, reiterated that it sought “stable, long-term relations based on mutual respect, mutual interest and shared values”. In fact, our foreign minister went on record saying that Pakistan had already done a lot and that it was now America's turn to start delivering.
What accounts for Pakistan's confidence? For one, the credibility that arises from a democratic dispensation, however inefficient and ineffective, has been reinforced by the remarkable success of our military operations. This has been a revelation to the Americans. Both Adm Mullen and Gen Petraeus have acknowledged that the Pakistan Army's resolve and determination have dispelled much of the mistrust.
More recently, the arrest of several major Taliban leaders in Pakistan led US special envoy Richard Holbrooke to see “a positive shift”.
What may also have encouraged the Pakistanis was Gen Petraeus's recent remark that Pakistan's “security forces have put a lot of short sticks into a lot of hornets' nests in the last 10 months” and more significantly, that Pakistan “has an interest that is somewhat different than ours and that is their strategic depth and always has been for a country that is very narrow and has its historic enemy to its east”.
He also brushed aside talk of differences between them by pointing out that “this is not unique just to Afghanistan and Pakistan, but throughout the world. We have interests, they have interests. What we want to do is to ... understand where they are divergent and try to make progress together”.
These remarks have had a calming effect on Islamabad's position on two important issues, namely that Pakistan has genuine strategic interests in Afghanistan and that Pakistan would not be able to devote the desired resources to the western front until its concerns on the eastern frontier are not recognised.It is, however, developments in Washington that have been the primary catalyst in bringing the two countries together. Obama has focused on Afghanistan with clarity and detachment. The trajectory of Obama's learning curve is evident in his Afghan strategy speeches in March and December last year and in January this year. There is no longer any ambiguity in his position.
It is now left to determine the tactics to achieve this objective, so that Al Qaeda is not able to resurrect itself, and the country can be left in the hands of a broad-based coalition, inclusive of the Taliban. If these objectives can be achieved, the administration can derive valuable domestic political mileage.
The US has, however, realised that even this reduced 'objective' cannot be achieved without Pakistan's active support and assistance. It is this newly crafted scenario which explains why Pakistan appears, once again, on the US radar screens, both for the objective of an 'honourable' extrication from the Afghan quagmire, and the consolidation of its influence in the region.
In the achievement of this objective, the US will be counting primarily on the Pakistan Army, not only for its 'battle' against the militants, but for keeping Pakistani politicians on the 'straight and narrow'. For Pakistan, the task would be for sustaining American interest in the country, above and beyond Afghanistan, making it genuinely strategic.
This is not going to be simple; many impediments and uncertainties could thwart the pursuit of this objective. For a start, strategic relations can only be sought by a democratic political dispensation, which not only pursues moderate and progressive policies, but has the conviction to 'sell' this to a sceptical electorate.
This certainly is a challenging agenda, because a people-to-people relationship with the US is not possible, unless it is seen as promoting policies that can be 'seen and felt' by the people of Pakistan.
There is another, far greater, challenge for our leadership. Strategic relations with the US may well impinge on other vital linkages. Two are critical. With the US determined to engineer a 'regime change' in Iran, what would its expectations be from Pakistan? Finally, can we contemplate cooperating with the US in any initiative that could trouble our relations with China?
There could be reservations on the US front as well, once its interest in Afghanistan begins to wane. New and powerful lobbies have emerged in the US that are convinced of an inevitable clash of civilisation with Islam. While Obama has strongly repudiated such notions, its adherents see an affinity with the rapidly emerging Indian lobby in the US, which is acquiring an influence second only to Israel's.
Apart from legitimate promotion of Indian interests, New Delhi's favourite pastime is to malign Pakistan. It has no hesitation in turning up the heat on the Obama administration for any favour extended to Pakistan, as evident from its recent refrain that the Obama administration is not as sympathetic to India as was its predecessor. In such a scenario, the challenge for Pakistan is to ensure that in its calculus of interests, the US remains committed to Pakistan's security and well-being, long after American troops have left Afghanistan.
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