ISLAMABAD, Oct 14: China and India appear to be the biggest gainers following the end of the multi-fibre agreement (MFA), with China seeing an 18.4 per cent increase in textile and clothing exports during the first four months of this year, and India recording a 28 per cent growth in textile exports during the first three months.

Pakistan’s textile and clothing exports during the first four months of 2005 reached a record level and underwent an average monthly growth of 22.1 per cent when compared with the same period in 2004.

However, the growth rate for Chinese exports was actually declining month by month, while India also saw a decline of 24pc in its readymade garment exports.

The new study, “Promoting fair globalization in textiles and clothing in a post-multi-fibre agreement (MFA) environment”, prepared by the International Labour Organization (ILO) reveals that the results thus far of the phasing out of the MFA have been a ‘mixed bag’.

“The lifting of global textile and clothing quotas in January 2005 has been a mixed bag despite widespread concern that the quota phasing out would result in labour and trade catastrophe for many developing countries,” the study adds.

Meanwhile, a number of Asian countries often cited as potential losers under the new regime do not appear to be doing badly in the months following the end of the MFA. In Bangladesh, garment exports declined in January 2005 by $52 million but strongly recovered in February by $157 million and slightly increased again in March.

While many Asian countries appear to be doing well or holding their own in the wake of the MFA phase-out, textile and apparel producers and workers in Europe, the Americas and Africa appear to be losing out.

As anticipated in most of the post-quota scenarios, employment in the United States and EU textile and clothing industry fell at the end of 2004 and during the first month of 2005, declining by 6.5 per cent between May 2004 and May 2005 in the United States and by five per cent between February 2004 and February 2005 in 25-member states of the European Union.

Meanwhile, during the first three months of 2005, textile and clothing exports to the United States under the terms of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) fell by 25 per cent over the same period in 2004.

Of the 39,000 jobs generated by the textiles and clothing industry in Kenya, some 6,000 have disappeared since October 2004 and half of all textiles and clothing employment is estimated to be at risk.

In Lesotho, one of the world’s poorest economies, some 6,650 out of 56,000 garment workers were left jobless and a further 10,000 workers have been notified that they will be hired and paid only when work is available.

With increased competition from Asia, most Latin American textile and clothing producers have also lost the market share in the recent past. The study cites Mexico, which has failed to compete efficiently and has lost much of the revenue once generated by its textile and clothing industry.

“Failure to manage this transitional period would erode confidence in the agenda of development through trade, harm the reputation of the textiles and clothing business community for addressing the socio-economic challenges of globalization, and cause damage to the workers and economies concerned,” the report warns.