KARACHI: When Karachi University professor Dr Moonis Ahmar met chairman of the Society for Global Moderation Jawaid Iqbal back in April, the two men decided that a discussion on the post-election scenario in India was a must. Once all six phases of the elections were completed and Narendra Modi was back in power, they decided to hold a session on the challenges and options for Pakistan after Modi’s re-election.

Speaking at the society’s headquarters on Saturday along with the society’s director, Zahid Hussain Khan, Mr Iqbal introduced Dr Ahmar, former dean of KU social sciences department and professor of international relations, as an accomplished academic.

“This subject is not only interesting, but also relevant to the people on both sides of the border, particularly for Pakistan in terms of our economy and foreign policy,” said Mr Iqbal.

‘People have underestimated Modi’

“The topic is quite comprehensive and I would like to be specific. The Indian elections … certainly India is a democracy, and politically speaking according to the 42nd Amendment to the Indian Constitution, India is a secular state,” said Dr Ahmar in his introduction.

However, he added, in 2014, there was an erosion of the democratic and secular values in India.

“Does this mean that the elections which were held in India and concluded in the month of May will turn India into a different state?” he added.

The election’s result, Dr Ahmar shared, came as a surprise to him. He said that he had been talking to several former colleagues from India, most of whom claimed that even if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) got a majority, it would not win by a landslide.

“The BJP secured more than 300 seats out of 455 which means that the BJP can form a government on its own and would not be dependent on Shiv Sena,” he said.

To explain his point in further detail along with the BJP’s rise to power, Dr Ahmar shared data he had gathered over the years. For example, he said, back in 1984 when the elections were held after the death of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, the BJP won only two seats.

“Five years later in 1989, the BJP won 85 seats and Shiv Sena, an ally, won one. In 1991, BJP won 120 seats and Shiv Sena secured four seats. By 1996, BJP had 161 seats and Shiv Sena had eight,” he said, adding that by 2004 BJP lost momentum and the same happened in 2009. But by 2014, things were looking up as the BJP secured more than 280 seats. “This time, the BJP secured more than 300 seats whereas the Indian National Congress has just 55,” he said, adding that this was something that reflects the surge of the Modi wave.

According to Dr Ahmar, people have underestimated Modi.

“We say that he is not a well-read person. He is a person who may not have read history but is making history … that is what we have to understand. He has not read history as such like Man­mohan Singh, Nehru, like Indira Gandhi or I.K. Gujral, but he is making history. Whether that history will hurt us or benefit India remains to be seen,” he said.

Dr Ahmar also discussed recent appointments Modi made to his cabinet such as the new external affairs minister Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, who’s father is the brains behind India’s nuclear doctrine, along with Nirmala Sitharaman as the finance minister; these appointments show that Modi wants to be taken seriously.

Talking about the challenges for Pakistan, Dr Ahmar said there was no economic or military comparison between the two countries as India was obviously way ahead.

“Pakistan needs to be tactful and mindful to deal with the situation that has come up after the Indian elections. Modi knows very well that this is his last time in power, therefore as far as his foreign and domestic policy is concerned, he will not expect major changes but people around him want to transform India as a great power — this, however, will not be possible,” he said.

Published in Dawn, June 16th, 2019