IT took almost two decades to hold a new census in this country — and it seems that another 20 years will go by before the results can be said to command a consensus. If the government is, indeed, considering finalising the numbers of the sixth population census without any verification exercise, the shadow of controversy will hang over the results until the next time a census is held, one whose results most parties are willing to accept. The previous government managed to conduct the census exercise, but it could not conduct a post-enumeration audit of 5pc of the census blocks. A consensus decision to have this audit was taken at the last Council of Common Interests meeting held by the previous government. But the exercise was never carried out, and with a considerable time lag between the census and the audit, the results will show a large discrepancy due to the migration of people in the interim.

A post-enumeration audit of the sort envisioned at the time when the census results were being discussed by the CCI is no longer the right way to verify the numbers. That much is clear. Any such audit will likely pick up the results of too many extraneous factors, and the ensuing discrepancies will needlessly fuel further divisive politics. But railroading the results through without addressing the controversies they have given rise to would be an equally big mistake. A faulty census whose results are not accepted by a fair number of the larger political parties in the country will be a thorn in the side of policymaking as much as an outdated census would be. The present government is left with few good options as a result. For now, perhaps it would be appropriate for the government to return the summary sent by the Statistics Division, which reportedly advocates doing away with the verification exercise and approving the census results as they stand. When returning it, the government can easily ask the Statistics Division to give more options and to recommend at least three courses of action going forward, one of which would be to disregard the verification. This would create the time and space for various parties to put their heads together and think of some alternative way by which the census results can be verified and the satisfaction of contending parties obtained.

Published in Dawn, November 20th, 2018