IN a fifth and final Independence Day speech ahead of a general election in India next year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi struck a welcome tone on India-held Kashmir. What remains to be seen is if Mr Modi is, in fact, willing to follow up on his words with positive actions in IHK. Last year too, on Aug 15, the Indian prime minister spoke of a need to embrace the people of IHK and reject the coercive path of ‘goli and gaali’ (bullet and abuse); but a year of turmoil, bloodshed and political upheaval followed. This year, however, Mr Modi also invoked his BJP predecessor as prime minister, the late Atal Behari Vajpayee, in claiming that a path of development ought to be followed in IHK based on Mr Vajpayee’s pledge of ‘insaniyat, Kashmiriyat, jamhuriyat’ (humanity, Kashmiri identity, democracy). Mr Modi also pledged to hold delayed panchayat elections in IHK.

The problem with the approach adopted by Mr Modi (and previous Indian governments) to IHK is that there is no acknowledgement of two realities: the special status of IHK and the need for dialogue with Pakistan for a permanent solution to the Kashmir dispute. Even as Mr Modi spoke of a softer policy towards IHK, there are deep apprehensions that the hard-line BJP national government is seeking to revoke Article 35-A of the Indian constitution, an act that would be a virtual declaration of war against the oppressed people of IHK. The special status of IHK is resented by hardliners in India precisely because it protects the vulnerable people of IHK from mass demographic, economic, political and social change. By stripping IHK of its constitutionally protected special status, hardliners in IHK and in federal India want to achieve what extreme violence and the acute militarisation of IHK have not been able to accomplish. The active resistance of the people — all people, young and old — of IHK is rooted in an inalienable Kashmiri identity that no pressure or violence can cause to disappear.

In addition, the government of India, whether led by Mr Modi and his hard-line allies or any other government, must recognise that a solution to the Kashmir dispute intrinsically lies in a dialogue with Pakistan too. The Modi government has found many reasons to not engage Pakistan, but all Indian governments eventually return to the logic of dialogue: there is no alternative to the eventual normalisation of bilateral ties and peace in the region. A scheduled general election in India next year could become an excuse for Mr Modi to baulk at dialogue with the new civilian government of incoming prime minister Imran Khan. But Mr Modi ought to understand that openings when spurned can lead to even more complex future circumstances that may be inimical to peace and normalisation. The region needs and deserves peace; India should act sensibly.

Published in Dawn, August 17th, 2018