FOR most people in India and Pakistan, anticipating peace between the two countries is akin to daydreaming. Those who still believe in the dream of amity have few followers. The absence of peace, however, does not always mean war or a medium-scale conflict. Sometimes it also means a low-scale conflict with ‘manageable aggression’; to some, this appears relatively more debilitating.

The power elites on both sides have apparently become used to non-peace, which makes it harder to break out of the cycle of manageable aggression. Both sides have their formal and informal channels intact, which helps in preventing the conflict from escalating. Track-II diplomacy is one such channel of unconventional diplomacy, which keeps opening communication channels for formal diplomacy. Track-II channels are usually activated when formal diplomatic channels fail to keep up the momentum of the status quo.

However, in most cases, Track-II remains an autonomous process. It tends to influence policy establishments in two ways: first, it facilitates the formal diplomatic discourse; and second, it gives options for the de-escalation of violence and/or the resolution of conflict. Establishments normally tolerate and in some cases support Track-II for the former objective, but they may not always encourage the outcome of the latter.

The publication of The Spy Chronicles: RAW, ISI and the Illusion of Peace, authored by retired Gen Asad Durrani, former RAW chief Amarjit Singh Dulat and journalist Aditya Sinha could become a unique case of Track-II diplomacy as it has connected the most critical components of the two countries’ security establishments. As expected, it has sparked a reaction. The conversation of the former spies, who remained active members of the Track-II dialogue, encourages peace-dreamers in Pakistan and India to come up with more such efforts. Mr Durrani and Mr Dulat have attempted to find spaces for dialogue and hinted at a few possible ways out. Mr Dulat sees no benefit for India in maintaining the status quo in Kashmir, while Mr Durrani believes that Pakistan should have engaged with political actors such as Amanullah Khan, the president of the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front, instead of being seen as backing the Lashkar-e-Taiba. They advocate resumption of the composite dialogue as the only way to de-escalate tensions between the two states.

The power elites on both sides have apparently become used to non-peace.

As cited earlier, one of the purposes of Track-II is to facilitate Track-I of bilateral diplomacy. But diplomacy between India and Pakistan has largely remained victim to the manageable aggression doctrine. The composite dialogue, which is a premium Track-I initiative between the two countries, was first initiated in 1985 with a four-point agenda that included Siachen, Sir Creek, terrorism and commercial ties. Later, it was expanded to eight points in 1997 to also include Kashmir and the Wullar Barrage in the wish list. In 2004, both sides made a renewed commitment to restart the composite dialogue process after the declaration from Pakistan that no militant group would be allowed to use its soil against India. In December 2015, both sides made yet another effort to resume talks on all outstanding issues. This process has remained a non-starter during the last three years because of the civil-military rift in Pakistan and the changing regional scenario.

Interestingly, Track-II has always played an important role in the resumption of Track-I. For one, composite dialogue was resumed on the eve of Saarc regional summits, where Track-II lobbyists found an opportunity to influence their leaders. Just a few weeks before the release of Spy Chronicles, Pakistan hosted the Neemrana Dialogue, an old Track-II initiative between India and Pakistan, which as seen as an indication that both sides may come to Track-I soon.

Also, statements of the army chief and the former national security adviser Nasser Khan Janjua and others gave the impression that Pakistan was ready for talks with India and this intention was reciprocated by the other side. The recent decision of the directors general of military operations to fully implement the ceasefire understanding of 2003 was another indication of such inclination.

It is no secret that China is encouraging dialogue not only between India and Pakistan but also between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The reason is obvious: regional stability is key for the success of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are utilising formal and informal communication channels to avoid any Doklam-like crisis. China encourages Pakistan to take similar measures.

It is interesting that in the recently announced national internal security policy review, Pakistan has conceived itself as a transit state between Central and South Asia and come up with its own connectivity approach to complement OBOR and maximise CPEC advantages. If this is going to translate into policy, Pakistan will need a different sort of diplomacy. So far, its formal diplomatic channels are not functioning well. The expansion of Track-II initiatives with Afghanistan and the US is an indication of internal weaknesses. Track-II is encroaching on the realm of formal diplomacy. Recently, it has contributed towards de-escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which has resulted in the Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity.

China is also initiating such measures and encouraging Track-II dialogue between India and Pakistan, and in a few cases, between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Chinese think tanks and academic institutions are increasingly inviting scholars, policymakers and opinion-makers from these countries and encouraging free and frank dialogue amongst the participants.

It is not certain whether or not Chinese efforts will culminate in breaking the cycle of manageable aggression, but at least they have expanded the scope of unconventional diplomacy in the region. China is an important factor in the success of Afghanistan-Pakistan unconventional diplomacy. However, India’s case is complicated as it remains to be seen whether or not Pakistan’s security establishment is ready to come out of the trap of manageable aggression.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, June 3rd, 2018