AS Punjab announces May 31 as the deadline for Bt cotton sowing, farmers wonder what it would mean for them this year. Last year, they could achieve only 11.98 million bales from 2.8m hectares (6.92m acres) against the target of 14.04m bales on 3.1m hectares.

This year, the acreage target has been reduced to 2.9m hectares, but the production target has been increased to 14.06m bales. But no one seems to know how this could be achieved.

Farmers in Punjab, who are supposed to contribute 10m bales to the total production target, are clueless about the situation. Their fears grow from three sources. Two of these three factors are new and one is almost a routine now. The new factors are: total chaos in the seed sector, which is only confusing farmers about the crop, and a massive water shortage (running over 40 per cent) that is making sowing almost impossible. The third factor is the standing wheat crop that occupies a major chunk of land.

As far as the seed sector goes, recent reports from local laboratories and discussed in a pre-sowing meeting at the Central Cotton Research Institute, Multan, noted that the majority of the non-Bt cotton varieties now carry Bt genes. According to these reports, more than 60 non-Bt varieties now stand infected by the gene, wiping out the distinction between Bt and non-Bt varieties.

Pakistan may be the first country in the world that has seen its local varieties infected; no such infection has been reported from any part of the world so far. The Bt gene has crept in other crops (such as alfalfa) but not cotton.

Pakistan may be the first country in the world that has seen its local cotton varieties infected

This infection is now further confusing farmers, as Bt and non-Bt genes have different input requirements and could compromise yield if not taken care of as per their own protocol. The Punjab Agriculture Department only added to the confusion when it missed out the names of some local seeds in its list of approved varieties, which it issued in March and later added them in the deadline press release, which it issued in the second week of May.

The second factor that is now making cotton a risky proposition is water shortages, which have been running over 40 per cent: Tarbela dam hit dead level twice in the last fortnight. The Pakistan Central Cotton Committee (under Ministry of National Food Security and Research), which sets the production target, also in its meeting discussed water shortage, as reported by the Indus River System Authority. But it still increased the production target, without explaining how higher target would be achieved from smaller acreage, and that too with less water.

The third factor is the pace of wheat harvesting in Punjab. It is under way but yet to gain full momentum because of different reasons. Most of the cotton crop is sown on the lands vacated by wheat.

It is especially true for the southern part of the province, where harvesting starts early and water shortages hurt the most because it is located at the tail end of the Punjab irrigation system and has brackish water underground. These factors make sowing impossible without canal water. Even the perennial canals started running almost two weeks later than scheduled time in the area, adding to farmers’ woes.

These three factors are making cotton crop an uncertain prospect this year. The Punjab government says efforts are afoot to facilitate the crop. It says that fertiliser and pesticides inventories are satisfactory and so is the subsidy regime, which should have positive impact this year.

In addition to federal subsidies on fertiliser and GST-free pesticides, Punjab is providing certified seed for around 200,000 acres at half of the market rate. It has provided scratch cards to seed companies, and farmers are free to buy seeds from the company of their choice (for two acres) and claim subsidy. All these factors should have a salutary effect upon the final yield.

But officials of the Punjab Agriculture Department concede that it would only happen if the crop is sown at the most propitious time, which is not later than May 31.

If the sowing gets delayed until June, germination problems will immediately hit the crop because of high temperatures. If somehow the seeds do germinate, heavy shedding could follow and crop would be too weak to withstand the monsoon onslaught that comes in the form of a pest attack.

Given these factors, south Punjab is the most vulnerable, but the rest of the province is not any better off, where all three factors are present with full force.

Unfortunately, the delayed sowing now seems a distinct possibility, which farmers fear the most.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, May 14th, 2018