AS I flew into Colombo last week, the ballots in the local council elections were being counted. Much delayed, these polls sent a clear message to the ruling coalition: be afraid; be very afraid. By winning 232 local government bodies out of the 340 up for grabs, Mahinda Rajapakse, the ex-president, reminded the country and its current rulers that he was still very much a major player.

Apart from Colombo, Galle, Jaffna and a few other cities, Rajapakse’s new party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), swept the Sinhala heartland. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremsinghe’s United National Party was a distant second with 41 councils, whereas President Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party obtained just nine. Clearly, this was a rejection of the ruling UNP-SLFP coalition on a shattering scale.

In most countries, council elections are quiet, localised affairs that reflect local concerns. But in Sri Lanka, the results reflected a major drop in the popularity of both the major parties that have been traditional rivals for power. Although Ranil — as the PM is widely known as — has been head of the UNP since 1994, the party hasn’t won a single election under him. Known as an efficient manager, he has shown a woeful lack of charisma and the common touch. Twice a losing presidential candidate in 1999 and 2005, he nominated General Fonseka to run for the presidency in 2010, but was still unsuccessful.

Mahinda Rajapaksa, on the other hand, is still popular despite the many allegations of corruption and nepotism that have dogged him and his family. It is the ruling coalition’s failure to prove a single major charge against Rajapaksa that has enabled him to claim that the campaign against him was unfounded. In fact, members of the ruling coalition have themselves been embroiled in a huge scam involving government bonds.

The present government has been in power for three years, and its performance has been distinctly lacklustre. Prices have gone up, the rupee has fallen, and no new major development projects have been launched. In fact, the Sirisena-Ranil duo has struggled to meet the commitments made to China to finance the large infrastructure programme started under Rajapaksa. Many of these projects, like the Hambantota port and airport, have proved to be white elephants, but they still have to be paid for. Colombo’s Port City, a multi-billion dollar project, is still going ahead despite its earlier halt due to environmental concerns. Thus, this government has been preoccupied by finding resources to fund ongoing projects it inherited.

Nevertheless, the perception of a government adrift has taken hold. People forget the lawlessness that characterised Rajapaksa’s regime when journalists were often beaten up and even murdered by spooks in white vans. Scores of Rajapaksa’s relatives were given government jobs, while two of his brothers were in the cabinet, and the third was made speaker of the house. His son was elected to parliament, and was allegedly being groomed to succeed his father.

As against this dismal record, the present coalition has not tried to browbeat and bully the opposition. Both Sirisena and Ranil are decent people and believe in the rule of law. However, voters demand an improvement in their lives, and they now look on Rajapaksa as a man who can deliver, just as they see him as the leader who ended the murderous civil war.

In the fallout over the local council election results, differences between the coalition partners have come to the surface. Each party has blamed the other for its poor performance, while Ranil has come in for a lot of flak. In an excoriating article in The Island daily, Dr Dayan Jayatilleka asks:

“Can’t the UNP grasp the simple, self-evident fact that as long as Ranil Wickremsinghe is the leader, he, and more importantly the UNP, will never lead the country? Which part of that can’t the UNP get?

“Why is the UNP not giving Ranil the heave-ho at this moment…? What does this say about the UNP? If the UNP does not hit the ejector button on Ranil Wickremsinghe and produce an alternative as leader and Prime Minister later this week, it will be in a terminal crisis…”

A week after the elections, Ranil has been confirmed as PM for the two years that remain for the government. But before the next presidential election due in 2020, there are provincial and parliamentary elections to come. If the present trend continues, the ruling coalition is due further battering at the polls while Rajapaksa’s camp will be strengthened.

Perhaps this wake-up call will galvanise the government to pursue corruption charges against the Rajapaksa family. There have long been rumours about a deal between him and Ranil that he and his immediate family would not be touched after he lost the last election. Although no proof is available, the fact is that the investigations have been desultory and led nowhere.

Despite his enduring popularity among a majority of Sinhalese voters, Rajapakse cannot serve as the next president as he has already completed two stints. Although he had amended the constitution to enable him to become a three-term president, the coalition has removed this amendment. Nevertheless, one of his brothers could easily serve as his proxy.

When Rajapakse lost the 2015 election, it felt that a cloud had been lifted. But sadly, the winning coalition was unable to keep its campaign promises, and beyond providing a decent government, it proved incapable of taking the tough decisions needed to prevent a Rajapaksa comeback. Perhaps a glimpse of the ignominious defeat to come will concentrate minds and firm up some backbones in the ruling SLFP-UNP coalition.

irfan.husain@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, February 19th, 2018