IS the PML-N at war with itself, with state institutions or simply in disarray?

Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has contradicted speaker of the National Assembly Ayaz Sadiq and insisted that elections will be held on time in August. On Wednesday, Mr Sadiq ominously suggested in interviews that the National Assembly is unlikely to complete its term, though the speaker only alluded to the reasons why that may be the case.

Prime Minister Abbasi’s rebuttal, however, is far from convincing. Travelling yet again to London to meet PML-N supremo and ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif, Mr Abbasi’s words may have been more persuasive if uttered from the floor of parliament.

The very fact that Mr Abbasi needs to consult his party boss in a foreign land so frequently suggests a fluidity in national politics that is the opposite of what the prime minister has been claiming.

One of the more puzzling aspects of the latest contradictory statements by the PML-N leaders is that both Mr Abbasi and Mr Sadiq have been loyal supporters of Mr Sharif. While it is possible that the prime minister and the speaker have different views on the events unfolding, could it be a case of Mr Sharif deploying different party leaders to spread different messages?

A great deal of the uncertainty in national politics today flows from Mr Sharif’s ambiguousness about his own future in politics. Is the ousted prime minister willing to give up front-line politics if his legal troubles become insurmountable? Or is he determined to try and force his way back into electoral politics come what may?

Currently, Mr Sharif is unable even to guarantee his physical presence in Pakistan for longer than fleeting court appearances. The illness of his wife and MNA-elect, Kulsum Nawaz, is a legitimate factor, but there is a sense that Mr Sharif simply prefers to be outside Pakistan for longer than is strictly necessary. That itself is a disservice to the people and politics of Pakistan.

Certainly, the PML-N is being subjected to pressure on a number of fronts that mature democracies do not have to contend with. Yet, while the details may differ, there is nothing fundamentally different about the final year of a government being mired in political speculation and confusion. The fifth year of the last PPP-led government was similarly turbulent.

Some of the confusion can be dispelled by decisive leadership. Resolving the deadlock over the census and subsequent delimitation of constituencies; announcing a schedule for Senate elections well in advance; placing on the record a parliamentary agenda for the last six months that focuses on institution building and democracy strengthening — the government has several options to nudge the political discourse away from destabilising speculation and towards substantive governance. Prime Minister Abbasi and Speaker Sadiq can surely do better than stir controversy and sow confusion.

Published in Dawn, December 15th, 2017