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THE recent North Korean test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) places it in a tiny club of countries that have this global capacity to send an armed warhead to virtually any part of the world. It also exposes the limits to American power to influence events and policies abroad. There was a time when the fear of American fleets would concentrate the minds of dictators and democrats alike, and force them to modify policies to suit Washington’s agenda.
No more. Quite apart from Trump’s chaotic presidency, the rise of alternate power centres and non-state actors has shaken up the old American-led consensus that hinged on the supremacy of liberal democracy and free trade. The cultural values of the Judeo-Christian West were deemed to be superior, and thus worthy of emulation by the rest of the world. And indeed, American soft power projected through movies, TV shows and pop music gave young people around the world a model to aspire to, as opposed to the old-fashioned and restrictive traditions that prevailed in their own societies.
However, a rise in Islamic utopianism after the Iranian Revolution of 1979, followed by the defeat of the Red Army in Afghanistan by Muslim freedom fighters, led to a massive growth in anti-Americanism across the Islamic world. This sentiment was given further impetus by the American-led attack on Iraq in 1990 following Saddam Hussein’s occupation of Kuwait.
The rise of China as a major economic power and the resurgence of Russia as a significant global player saw the emergence of states that could challenge American hegemony, at least on regional issues. These trends were further strengthened by a growing American reluctance to stay engaged in distant conflicts: US citizens saw little point in fighting other people’s wars in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. Obama and Trump, despite their differences of style and substance, recognised this and both declared in their election campaigns that they would pull back American troops, and stop pouring American blood and treasure abroad. It so happened that events — and the advice of hawkish generals — prevented them from fully acting on their promises, but to the rest of the world, Washington’s intention to play a smaller global role was clear.
Allies were put on notice that Cold War pledges were now negotiable, and they could no longer count on unequivocal American support. Enemies were encouraged by the signs of an American withdrawal. For many, the world was suddenly a more dangerous place than it had been under a Pax Americana. Since the end of the First World War in 1918, America has been the world’s leading power by virtue of its distance from the European and Asian continents, as well as by the size of its resources, population and land mass. After WWI, most European states were shattered after four years of bloodletting, and in no position to challenge American hegemony.
The American position was further consolidated by the Second World War that saw much of Europe prostate after five years of ferocious fighting that saw scores of millions killed. Again, most Americans were spared these horrors, and the post-war years saw a long period of prosperity for Middle America that is now recalled with nostalgia; Trump’s election is partly a result of this harking back to a golden period for white, middle-class Americans.
Even now, as we view the new challenges the US faces around the world, it is too early to write the country off as the world’s pre-eminent power. In economic and military terms, it is still far ahead of the competition. Even though it owes over $20 trillion, it is still an economic powerhouse. And its military is by far the most powerful the world has ever seen. Indeed, the US now depends far more on naked strength than on soft power and diplomacy. But projecting power to the far corners of the globe has its own costs, and not all of them are measured in dollars and cents. Muslims, in particular, have long resented the presence of American troops in their lands.
The projection of power beyond the exchequer’s ability to bear the cost has resulted in America’s ballooning national debt, but thus far has failed to act as a brake on Washington’s ambitions or hubris. Since the Second World War, there has scarcely been a year when America was not at war somewhere or the other. But the fact is that over the last seven decades, the Americans have not won a single major conflict despite their vastly superior firepower. Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan were all messy battlefields where tens of thousands of Americans (together with millions of non-Americans) were killed to little purpose.
But in a sense, the presence of an American cop on the global beat was a reassuring one. Now, it seems there are no rules or values to act as lubricants to keep the global community in a state of relative harmony. When we look back, it was the equilibrium provided by the Cold War between the USA and the USSR that kept a semblance of peace.
With the rise of a multi-polar power, none of these old certainties can sustain us any longer. The UN is subject to vetoes that have effectively made it powerless, and eroded its moral authority.
Perhaps we are witnessing the collapse of the post-WWII international system that, despite its many faults, still oversaw a period of relative peace and prosperity. Hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty; many conflicts prevented; and a huge increase in trade now underpins the global economy.
The US has been central to many of these developments. Now, as it shows signs of retreating into an era of isolationism, I can’t see who will fill this vacuum.
Published in Dawn, December 4th, 2017
