THE grand handshake in Karachi on Wednesday reconfirms for the millionth time just how crazy predicting Pakistani politics is, and the risk — of being proved embarrassingly wrong — those who indulge in the difficult art expose themselves to.

It is quite clear that those who must act as fortune tellers of Pakistani politics must wear the same unshakeable look of earnestness and sincerity that was sported by Messrs Farooq Sattar and Mustafa Kamal on Wednesday evening as they pledged to take community and country out of their current woes. As if nothing unusual has happened here.

This normal exercise in the coming together of interests and personalities picks up when the politicians sense an election nearby. The PSP and MQM and their patron supporters do concede this much: they couldn’t and cannot do the job on their own in post-Altaf Karachi. This necessitates their coming together, and Gen Pervez Musharraf, who has personal reasons to be concerned about community and country, is already predicting that it is the beginning of an alliance that can defeat the PPP in Sindh.

The old victim card, the martyrs and the emotional speeches at their last resting places have not helped the party.

This statement post-haste by a general not quite renowned for his patience will be used by the PPP as evidence of a conspiracy against it. More important than this old rhetoric about the invisible and visible forces plotting against the PPP would be the Zardari camp’s ability to listen to the popular grumbling about the party’s rule.

Never since 1988 have the voices of dissent and disillusionment against the PPP been so loud as now. The plotters have been around, coming up with the unlikeliest of alliances to check any advance by the PPP. These fronts against it spearheaded by the most infamous of individuals were able to contain an obviously much more robust and less controversial PPP of the past. The cobbling together of the Mohajir elements in Karachi and the nationalists in interior Sindh could turn out to be more effective amid all this criticism that the Zardari party has come under from the people at large.

The PPP leaders would be inclined to use the restoration of the old urban front minus Altaf against it as an opportunity to intensify politics that pits rural areas in Sindh against the cities. Whereas this could be thought of as a pragmatic approach in the run-up to the election expected next year, it will in actuality be an extension of the same negative politics that has been a big factor in the PPP slip all over the country.

The old victim card, the martyrs and the emotional speeches at their last resting places have not helped the party. It is dead rhetoric amidst people who are increasingly alive to their needs. It will not bring the PPP many dividends, maybe not even in the short term. It must conjure up some scheme at the local level to face the challenge to its old grasp on Sindh by the PTI, the Sindhi nationalists, even if so-called, and the growing Mohajir front in Karachi.

Confronted by its own poll realities, Mian Shahbaz Sharif has just come up with a model of dealing with the situation. Under his scheme for wooing the voters, he is ready to spend a few billion rupees on development work to be carried out by the network of local governments in Punjab. This is about the first time the chief minister has acknowledged the presence of the local government and recognised their worth in helping PML-N garner votes in the next general election.

The Rs11.77bn development package has to be concluded by April 30, exactly a month before the current government in Punjab is to complete its term. Thus this is by no means some kind of a secret campaign at winning the support of voters. The Punjab government is very open about the purpose and the expected impact of the scheme.

The Shahbaz step is a reminder that even in a country with a history of the most shocking and surprising events, especially close to a general election, a politician in or out of power must do what he can. A politician cannot just wait for things to happen and turn in his favour — the way Mr Asif Zardari appears to be doing right now, putting all his hopes apparently in redeeming himself before the establishment and offering little else by way of politics.

The PML-N is doing its bit in Punjab to secure the party to whatever extent it can — discounting any catastrophe that may befall the party courtesy of any power. The PML-N leaders are striving to keep a positive outlook despite the fact they may have fears of the party undergoing a process of destruction and possible rebuilding before the election. They are doing what they can rather than wasting their time on thinking negatively about what disasters may be in store for them. This is the best policy for the party at the moment.

One recurrent reference in the PML-N talk these days is to the large voter base the party no doubt has come to enjoy over time. And if there is proof in history of how this base can be shaken with some engineering by the so-called real powers at the stage where electoral candidates are selected, the PML-N politicians have their own examples they would rather stick to, to keep the mood in the camp upbeat.

The example cited often is that of the 2002 election when a Musharraf-led setup failed to effectively swing the poll in favour of the king’s party led by Chaudhry Shujaat and others. It could be argued that Musharraf was rather light in his assertions at poll time 2002 and that he was assisted by people who did not quite match the guile and ambition of, say, the lieutenants Gen Zia was blessed with in the past. By comparison, Imran Khan today is a real force to reckon with.

The PML-N does obviously understand the differences. It is, of course, saying and doing what it can best in the circumstances, leaving the rest to the writers of fate.

The writer is Dawn’s resident editor in Lahore.

Published in Dawn, November 10th, 2017