CIRCUMSTANTIAL compulsions propelled Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi to his current position. Whether he will actually be able to justify his election to the powerful post depends on his performance in the economic sphere during the little time he has in the PM House.

“At stake is not just his political career but the future of the PML-N. The narrative of political victimisation is a hard sell,” commented the head of an institution, discussing the PML-N’s strategy of political mobilisation.

“Voters beyond party loyalists care for their own lives and how they have fared under the party in power, I believe. The electricity outages and acceleration in the rate of inflation could decide the outcome of the next elections,” he said on the basis of discussions in elite circles.

The prime minister clearly can’t afford to let the economy drift from the growth trajectory that his party boasted about for so long.

To this end, he will be required to deal with the grave economic challenges of a mounting current account deficit, falling exports, spiralling public debt, confusion surrounding currency valuation and the temptation among colleagues to use public funds for political ends.

Mr Abbasi’s posturing immediately after assuming office and the reports of his initial interaction with the stakeholders indicated that he is cognisant of the element of urgency.

His moves indicated that he has decided to leave the politics to his party’s leadership and colleagues already mired in the debate, and started to focus instead on safeguarding economic gains and implementing ideas that the last cabinet missed.

He clearly can’t afford to let the economy drift from the growth trajectory that his party boasted about for so long

In the very first week he reclaimed the ground Prime Minister Office had previously surrendered to the finance ministry.

“He signalled that he would like to steer the economy with a firm grip on the driving wheel. He moved to contain Finance Minister Ishaq Dar who conducted himself as the de facto PM in Nawaz Sharif’s cabinet with a finger in every pie under the sun. The resentment against Dar in the PML-N’s policy circles helped Abbasi to assert himself on this count,” a minister told Dawn.

The PM office did not respond to Dawn’s queries on the new order of economic priorities besides referring to PM Abbasi’s acceptance speech on the floor of the house after the election in which he pledged to continue with his party’s policies and complete the unfinished work on the economy, particularly energy projects.

The institutional heads and top businessmen who met Mr Abbasi in Karachi and Islamabad were pleasantly surprised by his demeanour.

“Instead of one-sided warnings and sermons, PM Abbasi heard concerns of invitees patiently,” a participant of the last week’s meeting at Governor House in Karachi told Dawn. “I even saw him jotting down points raised. True to his reputation as a go-getter he appeared to be someone who meant business.”

Zubair Tufail, president of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry, said he expected a decision on the exchange rate before the Eidul Azha break.

“The decision on rupee devaluation is tough. In case of 8-10pc devaluation, imports will become expensive and the size of foreign debt will multiply. Yes, exporters will get some support but their trading partners will demand to share the windfalls,” he said.

“There is division of opinion among policymakers over whether devaluation in one go is better or whether staggering it over the next six months is preferable,” he observed.

He was happy about the possibility of quicker disposal of files of businessmen lost in the piles in Islamabad.

However, some major textile exporters who are not invited to high-profile meetings expressed anxiety. They said they had no reason to be kind to the new premier.

“Who cares for what he says. As my money is locked in the government coffers (refund claims) and my trade partners are reluctant to lock deals for Christmas orders citing exchange rate confusion, the future of my business is compromised,” said Shabir Ahmed, a noted value-added textile exporter. “A delay in rupee revaluation would be at the peril of already sliding exports.”

For the past four years key leaders of the business community have been trying to present their case to the government. But all their efforts proved futile during the Dar rule.

“I can bet that the Indian PM would not let the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) leaders wait for more than two weeks as they value their economic advice,” commented a technocrat with family links in both the ruling and the opposition parties. “Here, despite their best efforts, the PBC (CII’s counterpart in Pakistan) failed to get an appointment with the former PM in four years.”

Muneer Kamal, chairman of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, considered Mr Abbasi the best choice in the current situation. “I hope he broadens the base of decision-making, works diligently to empower institutions and pay heed to views of well wishers,” he said. “He has both the position and capability to steer the economy out of choppy waters.”

An analyst, who was not particularly happy with the exclusion of civil society’s representation in high-profile meetings of the premier, cautioned: “PM Abbasi needs to be watchful of not letting the pendulum swing to the other extreme. The demands of the industry that impinge on workers or consumer interests need to be ignored.”

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, August 21st, 2017