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A report by PwC has everyone talking due to a claim reportedly made in it that Pakistan will be the world’s 16th largest economy by the year 2050. The finance minister has gone the extra mile by publicly congratulating the country on the “economic turnaround” effected by his government, citing the PwC report and an opinion piece in Bloomberg by George Mason University’s Professor Tyler Cowen, in which he says that “most of Pakistan’s developments are fairly positive”.

Unfortunately, the finance minister, in his enthusiasm, claimed that Bloomberg has also declared Pakistan as the most underrated economy in the world in its recent report titled Pakistan’s Economy Is a Pleasant Surprise. In fact, the piece in question is not a ‘report’ but an opinion column, and below it the following disclaimer is clearly featured: “This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.”

In any case, let’s take the example of the PwC report, since it is weightier and the claim being made sounds far more spectacular. The first thing to note is this: the PwC report does not say anywhere that Pakistan is going to be the 16th largest economy in the world by 2050. What it says is that Pakistan has the potential to be the 16th largest economy in the world by 2050. There is an important difference between both claims, and it should be borne in mind before popping any corks.


The long story here is that the projections made in the PwC report come with a heavy caveat.


So the first obvious question to ask is this: what needs to be done in order to unlock this potential? The PwC report does not dwell on Pakistan in any detail. It features extended analyses on Poland, India, China and Brazil, as well as boxed analyses on Turkey, Nigeria and Columbia. It pinpoints Vietnam, India and Bangladesh “to be three of the world’s fastest-growing economies” till 2050, and says “Mexico could be larger than the UK and Germany by 2050”. Pakistan only features on a couple of lists presented in the report, showing it as having the potential to become a large economy by 2050 in purchasing power parity terms.

“To realise this growth potential,” the report says at the outset, “emerging market governments need to implement structural reforms to improve macroeconomic stability, diversify their economies away from undue reliance on natural resources (where this is currently the case), and develop effective political and legal institutions”.

Next question to ask is: how do they make their projections? What methodology do they use?

The report projects future GDP growth rates based on four variables — demographics, or the growth of a working age population; growth in quality of the workforce, measured through average education levels in the workforce; growth in physical capital stock, measured as new investment minus depreciation of existing stock; and technological progress.

As any of these indicators improve, the projection for that country’s future GDP growth rate goes up. On top of that, they make an assumption about real market exchange rates relative to purchasing power parity rates. So if a country is a food importer, and its exchange rate depreciates significantly over time, that would makes its food more expensive, thereby lowering its GDP in purchasing power parity terms.

A significant share of the boost that Pakistan gets in this projection comes from the large growth of its working age population till 2050, compared to the ageing populations of the advanced industrial West or the advanced countries of the Far East (Japan and Korea for example, and China’s workforce will be weighed down in the decades to come due to its one-child policy).

Second, Pakistan is food self-sufficient, which means food prices are relatively immune from international shocks, and below what they are in many other countries at the same level of development. This gives a boost to our GDP in purchasing power parity terms.

And that’s pretty much all folks. This methodology says we should grow rather spectacularly in the decades to come because the sheer number of able-bodied people available to work will increase and we can grow enough food to feed them all while keeping food prices under check. In fact, as per the data in the report, Pakistan has the second largest growth in the number of average working age population till 2050, after Egypt.

The long story here is that the projections made in the report come with a heavy caveat. In order to unlock this potential, we will need further reforms in our political and institutional systems of rule, as well as diversification of our manufacturing base, increase in productivity, and fixing our balance of payments to underpin macroeconomic stability.

The short story is that, in our case, the methodology used to make the projections has given us a boost largely on the basis of a growing population. If we can continue investing in our capital stock at present levels, and educate and feed each of these working-age members of the population at cheap rates, then our economy will have this potential.

The report is not meant to spark national celebrations. It is not even meant as a guide for policymakers. It is mainly aimed at large corporations and is trying to tell their leadership that, over the long run, the trade winds are blowing eastward.

Therefore, in order to position their enterprises to capture the dividends that this large, irreversible shift of economic dynamism towards the east is going to bring, they need to start entering markets like China and India now, and solidify their presence in these economies. And in doing so, it uses a very broad brushstroke methodology to highlight the underlying sources of strength in the new centres of dynamism.

Pakistan found itself on the list largely by accident, by virtue of its young population and food self-sufficiency. Perhaps we’ll tap this potential, but let’s not pop any corks just yet.

The writer is a member of staff.

khurram.husain@gmail.com

Twitter: @khurramhusain

Published in Dawn, February 16th, 2017



The views expressed by this writer and commenters below do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.


Comments (119) Closed



alla buX Feb 16, 2017 03:58am

Once CPEC is complete we will be Number ONE.

NowNow Feb 16, 2017 04:05am

The takeaway from the report for a serious planner would be to have a good feeling that the country has this potential, so setting the potential as a target, get into a planning exercise as to what needs to be done to reach that target. If such plan is made, necessary steps are taken and progress monitored there is no reason why Pakistan can not be there where PWC report thinks it can be.

Alba Feb 16, 2017 04:18am

Yes. If Pakistan can put a stop to corruption in the next six years. The bureaucracy has to get their hands out of businessmen's pockets and let's then concentrate on international business and Pakistan's balance of trade (which is slipping).

brr Feb 16, 2017 04:33am

The only growing markets in the next 30 years are India, China and a few others like Brazil and Vietnam. Unless Pakistan is able to enter these markets and sell a lot, all of such prognosis is mere words, fluff. There is little chance pakistan will be able to sell a lot in India, and its ability to sell in China against other established and turf-protecting chinese companies is next to nil.

Potential does not even imply ability and solutions to geo-political issues.

Syed F. Hussaini Feb 16, 2017 05:15am

He is telling today's hungry, they would have a plateful 34 years from now.

What is being underrated is the potential of the hungry.

Thank you, Mr. Khurram Husain!

Malik Feb 16, 2017 05:22am

Excellent analysis.

I was confused by the euphoria as it was largely based on population growth.

Better to be the 60th largest economy like say Finland, where the state can fulfill the health and education needs of All it's citizens.

Princess_of_DHUMP Feb 16, 2017 05:25am

And food self-sufficiency in 2017 despite the fact that the country is becoming water scarce and per capita production has been affected due to haphazard urbanisation and bad planning is not a big deal. Right, Khurram?

AGHA Feb 16, 2017 06:11am

“If we can continue investing to educate and feed each of these working-age members of the population at cheap rates, then our economy will have this potential”

Excellent analysis. Add Health also.

June,2016 Report on Multidimensional Poverty Index shows a sharp decline with national poverty rates falling from 55 % to 39% from 2004 to 2015.Much remains to be achieved as the report states 38.8% of population lives in poverty. Majority of the rural population (54.6%) lives in acute poverty while this ratio is only 9.4% in urban areas.

The more alarming indicator is the intensity of poverty, as each poor person lacks access to half of the indicators selected for measuring poverty. The MPI findings show 60.6% of population does not have access to cooking fuel, 48.5% do not complete schooling, almost four out of every 10 people (39%) do not have any assets and over 38% of the population lives in a one-room shelter. About one-third population does not have access to health facilities.

Coolmind Feb 16, 2017 06:13am

Great interpretation from the finance minister

OBserver Feb 16, 2017 06:52am

No man, you burst the bubble again with pin of realism. CPEC will solve all the problems.

R S Chakravarti Feb 16, 2017 07:10am

The suggestion could very well come true if relations with India become normal soon.

Kashif Feb 16, 2017 07:40am

Pakistan could become a economic powers in years to come, we are not in a bad shape even now, question is whether these benefits could find their way deep down to the Public, the under privileged.

Hassan Feb 16, 2017 07:46am

Turn around or no turn around. The issue is it is not the ground reality. I only see us becoming 16th lArgest if other economies go in recession

A Feb 16, 2017 07:57am

For that matter " heavy caveat " is there in all such Reports.

So always better to rely upon ' in house ' reports by our own Experts and by Central Bank....they know country better.

Iqbal M Ali Feb 16, 2017 08:10am

"If we can continue investing in our capital stock at present levels, and educate and feed each of these working-age members of the population at cheap rates, then our economy will have this potential." Mr. Hussain, the rulers and the subjects of Pakistan are looking for a magic wand they want to get there without hard work of creating the employment, educating the masses, improving the education standards. Wrong start does not get you to the destination.

aha Feb 16, 2017 08:12am

May be true if you just assume economy develops at the rate of population growth. But the direction country heading is not so promising.

aha Feb 16, 2017 08:15am

With CPEC, we should aim for second (let us spare first position to China).

Aslum Shaikh Feb 16, 2017 08:28am

I don't think anyone believed Finance Minister anyway.

citizen Feb 16, 2017 08:32am

Looks like this report ignored hundreds of billions that will be generated thro CPEC. We will attain that honor much before 2050, say by 2030...By 2050, we will be second only to China...

CLEAR HEADED INDIAN Feb 16, 2017 08:34am

@OBserver

You are so right ... how could he forget CPEC, the magic aanda?

Ahmad Feb 16, 2017 08:38am

I love these reality checks. People going crazy about CPEC need these dosages to keep them sane.

Vivek (Indore) Feb 16, 2017 08:46am

I don't think Pakistan will ever overtake South Korea or Canada to become 16th largest economy, at lease not in this century. The country and its economy have never been stable or consistent. CPEC seems to be the only major project going on in the country. To us, it seems like a bubble, with no ways to earn the returns-of-investment.

rajdeep Feb 16, 2017 08:54am

Excellent and to the point analysis. A very sane and erudite voice from Pakistan.

IFTIKHAR KHAN Feb 16, 2017 08:55am

Any extrapolation - to 33 years down the road - of complex equation including so many variables is bizarre or a fantasy. Based on such exuberance, a 100,000 dollar investment in stocks today might yield a billion dollars.

Chris Feb 16, 2017 08:59am

You forgot CPEC, it will make Pakistan 2nd largest by 2050..lol

Apache_indian Feb 16, 2017 09:02am

Solid analysis!! A large youthful population without education is a recipe for anarchy.

Please consider investing in scientific education of your children.

Rational Corp Feb 16, 2017 09:04am

People like the writer, Khurram Hussain will help Pakistan achieve her true potential. The columnists at Dawn are great role models for Pakistani youth to emulate.

Falcon1 Feb 16, 2017 09:20am

Hardly something to cheer about, when the country will be overflowing with overcrowded souls - especially in ghettos like Karachi - where estimated 30 million will trying to survive with limited infrastructure and public resources.

Pakistan will still be one of the countries with highest illiteracy, highest infant mortality; highest poverty rate; and highest corruption in Asia.

Will the ranking in the size of the economy lift living standards? Or quality of life?
I don't think so.

Retired Feb 16, 2017 09:25am

I don't know why there is so much skepticism regarding this report! Pakistan is a massive country, we are almost equal in area and population with UK, Italy and Germany combined!! India and China are large countries, biggest in the world but that does not diminish the size of Pakistan. Furthermore, Mediterranean Europe is stagnant since the last financial crises. Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece are a drain on EU and sooner than later, rest of northern Europe will heed UK and move out of single currency! Finally even if we do become a bigger economy than Italy, due to our large population, average Pakistani will still not be as prosperous, just like an average Chinese is less wealthy than a Swiss or a Swede even though overall they are a far bigger economy. Indians working overtime on this forum should simply relax!!!

Pradeep Feb 16, 2017 09:26am

@alla buX Is der any new thing except CPEC in pakistan..!

Patra Feb 16, 2017 09:27am

Very realistic piece. Any country while trying to grow should always look at things realistically and aim forward. If the view is unrealistic, then the goals will be even more unrealistic and the policies even more so. Interesting that CPEC didn't find a mention. Maybe it's not an elixir. Maybe?

Simple Guy Feb 16, 2017 09:35am

Awesome article that debunks all the myths.The increase in working age population is true but providing education to most of them is still an issue that needs to be dealt with.Regarding food sufficiency on a long run improved agricultural methods and proper irrigation and supplies are the areas where Pakistan can still falter.Nonethless for an ignorant person CPEC is a magic bean that has turned to a joke these days.Anyways awesome article DAWN especially for an economist like me.

ga Feb 16, 2017 09:38am

Not if half our population is dead or maimed by suicide attacks.

Syam Feb 16, 2017 09:42am

@Vivek (Indore) don't underestimate CPEC, once CPEC completes, Pak will give loans to other countries.

Feroz Feb 16, 2017 09:40am

Very good and realistic analysis on the said reports. Of course like in all cases with many ifs and buts.

Tanvir Feb 16, 2017 09:49am

No.

Devendra G. Feb 16, 2017 09:53am

In the long run we all are dead ...this report is of no practical use ...

J20 Feb 16, 2017 09:56am

@alla buX yes true.... effects we can ...trump also started talking good...

KRIS Feb 16, 2017 10:01am

Pakistan is in an enviable place geographically - it borders two of the fastest growing markets in the world with a combined population of 2.7Bn people. Now its for policy makers to decide if they want to take advantage of this unique opportunity. Or do they want to harp about historical conflicts while living on borrowed wealth?

Which path are they going to take?

N.Sid Feb 16, 2017 10:05am

Pakistan is already the 24th largest in GDP, purchasing power parity...so 16th largest, and even that in 2050, 37 years from now is not a very big deal.

The Choice Feb 16, 2017 10:08am

What a delusional world we live in...

joy Feb 16, 2017 10:08am

CPEC is for China not for Pakistan. China wanted to save the jobs of it's coal miners and coal fired plant workers but at the same time also show that it is doing substantial

changes by closing down coal fired plants. So, with a single stone (CPEC) it killed two birds. Saved it's people from the pollution generated by coal plants and kept the jobs of thousands of coal miners and coal plant constructors and workers.

All the workers working in CPEC are Chinese not Pakistani. And the route only serves Chinese interest. They are smartly using the Pakistani. At the end Pakistan will be in so much debt that there wont be any growth only repayment of debts.

PASHTUN Feb 16, 2017 10:17am

only if we change our corrupt habits !

South Asia Feb 16, 2017 10:33am

Let me share a life hack... Try to elect someone who has no kids, he or she will have no one to accumulate wealth for which means it will be a Statesman/Stateswoman.

True story Feb 16, 2017 10:34am

Why not. CPEC can help achieve this.

True story Feb 16, 2017 10:37am

Pakistan can become number 1, leaving USA China behind!! Just Wait for CPEC completion.

SAB Feb 16, 2017 10:41am

CPEC is not the panacea we all think it is.

kumar Feb 16, 2017 11:02am

Every time there is something to learn from Khurram Husain's articles. Kudos to Dawn for having these intellectuals. Pakistan should improve security situation, education and skill youth for new technologies, political and legal institutions, ease of doing business then Pakistan can do better than emerging economies.

South Asia Feb 16, 2017 11:07am

Really wish that happens and Pakistan gets on the right path. Wish Pakistani leaders make good use of this CPEC thing.

kevin Feb 16, 2017 11:17am

2050 ? that is too long. Pakistan will be most developed and number one economy in the world around 2025. Just complete CPEC all world will line up for pakistan.

Li-N-Ja Feb 16, 2017 11:24am

Political Stability and Peace within is the foremost essential to achieve this. We seriously need to channelize the youth energy for education, skills development and progress of the nation instead of going backward with religious fanatics. While the youths in metros are better equipped to accept this challenge, however problem with the youth in small towns with less infrastructure. Its hightime we should come-up with a national policy of skills development and control the law & order situation, failing which even the success of CPEC will be a distant dream.

Arvind Feb 16, 2017 11:25am

Good goal to have.

Gaur Feb 16, 2017 11:30am

@OBserver yeah sure.

AQ Feb 16, 2017 11:38am

PMLN and PPP governments won't let it happen. Imran Khan only one that can lead this nation to success like Mahathir Muhammad did for Malaysia.

Ab Feb 16, 2017 11:35am

@aha India will be biggest economy by 2030..china is already in recession and will be lest far behind.

Ravi Feb 16, 2017 11:41am

Spot on!..as all other articles by this author. Pak still has the potential, however there is a need for serious changes in mindset. Stop alternate proxy options as foreign policy, control corruption, work towrds a liberal, more tolerant environment, peace in the region. Bangladesh can be a good role model.

VINEETH Feb 16, 2017 11:52am

@Ab Even accounting China's slowdown, the sheer size of its economy and India's single-digit growth means that India will take a really long time in surpassing China in GDP.

DEV Feb 16, 2017 12:15pm

India is already the fifth largest economy in PPP terms and is poised to become 3rd by 2030 but nobody here is euphoric about it. I guess we will only be happy when we are at number one. I don't know why Pakistanis should be happy with just being 16th, and that too is slated for 2050 even with caveats.

R.Kannan Feb 16, 2017 12:33pm

Good to read an OPED by someone who read the original report. The caveats are important

SID Feb 16, 2017 12:35pm

How can the author ignore CPEC, the magic wand from Iron brother ? CPEC will alter global market from next year . Pakistan will have 40 plus SEZ like Jebel Ali free zone which will create billions of jobs.

Mirror Feb 16, 2017 12:46pm

A large working-age population isn't enough. Sufficient jobs are required to be created for accommodating this population. For that, investments in manufacturing and services is required. But there is no investment except cpec, in which only chinese people are employed.

Dr. Kent B Huzen Feb 16, 2017 12:52pm

This is a good interpretation but most importantly what Pakistan needed is to overcome its bad country reputation, Pakistan really needs a good country reputation and that will solve most of its problems I believe.

Gknatarajan Feb 16, 2017 01:00pm

No doubt that Pakistan has got the potential and Coveat is clear.not only you shud. improve on manufacturing but also export your goods to neighbouring giants China and India.may be you may be able to achieve this if you broke peace with India.But you may not succeed with China given your dependence on them for everything from municipal cleaning to running your businesses!please.wake up now and work on self sufficiency first.best wishes.

PM Feb 16, 2017 01:05pm

People here are so much over confidence about CPEC. Can any one have any revenue earning plan after paying the installments of the loan? Anyone has any clear idea of how much revenue can be generated per annum and how? Chinese investors will take their share of profit from it and also will get the interest of the loans. Then how much will left for pakistan? No other country except China is going to use that route. So, no chance of taking toll tax or customs duty from them. Industries which are being established will generate profit with the help of Pakistani money and the major portion of the profit will go to China. Then HOW? Seriously need to know.....

RAVEENDRA NATH Feb 16, 2017 01:09pm

@DEV - when they are almost at the bottom, 16 or 26 or 36 are good positions to hold. They are not satisfied with even the 16th and look forward to be number 1 on completion of CPEC sometime in 2019, even surpassing China. One should be optimistic and should air for the top.

jalil Feb 16, 2017 01:21pm

@alla buX LOL. Kidding?

Bored Feb 16, 2017 01:25pm

@Syam I heard World bank & IMF have already applied for 20 trillion $ loans from Pakistan

jalil Feb 16, 2017 01:27pm

@Syam Pak is heavy debt man. first need to pay it then think of giving loans.

Vikas Feb 16, 2017 01:32pm

PWC doesn't know what they are talking about. I don't they have factored in the 'game changer'. A magic wand called CPEC. After CPEC Pakistan is not going to be the 16th largest but the second largest (sorry but second after Iron brother China) in the world and also the second most powerful nation on earth. These western agencies don't know anything.

RAVEENDRA NATH Feb 16, 2017 01:43pm

@Bored @Syam I heard World bank & IMF have already applied for 20 trillion $ loans from Pakistan They are actively considering the WB & IMF requestys and have applied for permission from CHINA.

pashtoon Feb 16, 2017 01:50pm

Right, PWC has made speculations. So Pakistan can even be better than that. Thank you

Saqib Feb 16, 2017 01:52pm

Priorities are not aimed to become 16th largest economy by 2050.

Leo Feb 16, 2017 01:57pm

Wow! Looking forward for this to happen.

Ismail Feb 16, 2017 02:12pm

India will be no whatever we don't care. We will be no 16 that is happiest part.

Muhammad zahid Feb 16, 2017 02:28pm

No need of premature celebration. Bring reforms in every institution to end this corrupt culture. Then it is possible to reach this milestone. Good luck Pakistan.

GK Netherlands Feb 16, 2017 02:32pm

@AGHA " Report on Multidimensional Poverty Index '

Is this report compiled by Central Bank or Ministry Department ? Or again foreign entity ?

M. Malik Feb 16, 2017 02:39pm

Not sure if 16th or 15 largest economy, but you can be almost certain we will be among the top ten in Corruption!

zahid Feb 16, 2017 02:54pm

100 percent possible if corruption is stopped

Asif Mahmood Feb 16, 2017 03:02pm

I am old enough to remember the 60's when there were projections that we would the economic star of Asia. Corruption, overpopulation and wars ended those dreams.

faizal zaz Feb 16, 2017 03:59pm

@alla buX Please read article carefully. No. 16 by 2050...

Fahim Feb 16, 2017 04:02pm

@alla buX .. i want to laugh at ur comment. U dont want to work hard and keep voting for corrupt people like NAwaz and Dar.. CPEC is not going to bring money to ur house hold unless u work hard for it with right polcies and investing in better and more education, health and local industries. Wake up my friend. Stop acting like a baby.. This is not like living in a fool's paradise.

Freeman Feb 16, 2017 04:07pm

@alla buX And china will be no 2

D.K. PAMNANI Feb 16, 2017 04:40pm

Why every one is talking about CPEC.

saudagar Feb 16, 2017 04:43pm

china losing 50 billion dollars of valuable reserves every month out of 32oo billion it has , is cancelling or delaying its projects worldwide (read srilanka port today !) in about year chinas reserves touch 2700 billion dollars thats when panic will begun . india will be singing all the way to top with no threat of debt to gdp for next 25 years thanks manmohan singh and narsimha rao and of course MODIJI who have been visionaries .

Ali Agha Feb 16, 2017 04:52pm

With an effort for such an in-depth analysis and 82 comments so far on this piece of information, itself sends a strong indication that people world across have strong economic interest in Pakistan, and it's bound to grow despite deep rooted envyism from our neighbors

khanm Feb 16, 2017 04:56pm

provided we take care of corruption...

BAXAR Feb 16, 2017 05:09pm

@DEV "India is already the fifth largest economy in PPP terms" So the people of only 4 countries, have better purchase power than India. Which are the 4 better than India?

vijay Feb 16, 2017 05:33pm

Pakistan 16th largest economy ? Not possible with friends like China Jointly we can achieve 4th largest economy level. Currently India is 7th largest. We are separated politically and mentally, But not by DNA it is still same, we are brothers by history and blood. Both countries are situated on a land known for worlds oldest civilization and best culture, but we are known world wide as permanent enemies of each other.

n v s praneeth Feb 16, 2017 05:34pm

demographic dividend is also wat was seen to be india's main attraction but with automation kickin in it seems we are in for a demographic disaster.. we/india need to find out different avenues as quickly as possible.. very necessary to bring fertility rate to 2.1 for all communities at once, south india has done it but others have to follow..

Bikram Feb 16, 2017 05:43pm

@alla buX I liked your comment. :)

Khalid Feb 16, 2017 05:41pm

I really doubt it. Let us see where it is today and what sort of countries it stands beside now. Then we can look at what are the top 20 economies and how did they get there. Anyone who makes the claim of Pakistan being the 16th largest economy in the world knows that they won't be alive in 2050 and even if they are, do you really think it matters who would be where and what in 2050?.

akram Feb 16, 2017 05:44pm

interesting details about the methodology, however Pakistan once freed to trade has in the long term to enter the top 10 in nominal GDP in my opinion. We are the 6th largest population, and should develop ourselves by education.

As the above methodology shows the educated population both in quantity and quality is what will make Pakistan have a real growth spurt. So all Pakistanis educate your children both boys and girls. That is how we move ahead.

akram Feb 16, 2017 05:52pm

@joy instead of talking about a subject you obviously have no knowledge of I suggest you look at learning instead. CPEC is projected to create close to 1 million jobs over the 15 years in Pakistan, mostly FOR Pakistanis.

imran ali Feb 16, 2017 05:54pm

@Retired - Dravidian's not long when Barath, will sink like Brazil.

Muzaffar Ali Feb 16, 2017 05:56pm

It all depends.

Success depends on how we THINK.

citizen Feb 16, 2017 06:34pm

@zahid : It is 100% impossible to stop corruption..It is a way of life for us at every level...

Aik tha majnoon Feb 16, 2017 06:38pm
  1. Pakistan will tap benefit from CPEC (increasing GDP by 15%).
  2. We hope Kalabagh Dam will be constructed (increasing GDP immediately by 20%)
  3. Bhasha Dam will be constructed (increasing GDP immediately by 20%)
  4. Another dam will have a similar impact.

Folks Pakistan is the Land of massive opportunities and treasures, even without economic reforms we can double our economy, so Economic reforms will definitely put us on Highway to success. For the author it seems far-fetched but not for me. We WILL DEFINITELY be at least 16th Largest by 2050.

Indian true friend of beloved pakistan Feb 16, 2017 06:41pm

Simple math equation for both Indian and Pakistani friends 1+1=1 2-1=0 Any one who can solve this will be true genius. Hope some one!

Feroz Feb 16, 2017 06:40pm

All this talk about demographic dividends boosting economies is heard everywhere including here in India. Not sure how that comes through because recent global studies reveal that Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Robotics will make 40% of the current jobs redundant by 2030. Will need to be a specialist in Science, Engineering, Technology or Maths to prosper when that revolution is taking place.

Fazal Karim Feb 16, 2017 06:45pm

What matters is standard of living rather than GDP. Growth of population will be a burden, specially because of poor education and health. State of the society is in rupture. On the otrher side people are talking of failure.

Aik tha majnoon Feb 16, 2017 06:54pm

@Indian true friend of beloved pakistan I think you are talking about the unity of India and Pakistan. We are not against that, but your Modi is against that.

Mike London Feb 16, 2017 06:59pm

For Pakistan to achieve its dreams it needs a fundamental change in its approach. First improve its education system, normalize relations and trade with its neighbors and revamp its commercial industries.

chad Feb 16, 2017 07:23pm

@brr ABSOLUTELY RIGHT !!!!!

chad Feb 16, 2017 07:31pm

@Coolmind If your finance minister was great he will be doing something NOW to improve the economy and not 33 years from now.

Indian true friend of beloved pakistan Feb 16, 2017 07:47pm

@Aik tha majnoon . Thank u Manjoon saheb. U r right. Both the nations want to be stable and prosperous. They can achieve this if they remain as one nation . Of course they can keep their respective identity. If they want to destroy another they will destroy each other in the end. Neither Modi nor Sharif will have any role to play. This is up to 1.5 billion people of both nations. Very sad to learn that today evening another blast took place. Pray to God pls save .

natsikap nabilat Feb 16, 2017 08:14pm

@citizen : total agree

Mady Feb 16, 2017 08:11pm

@Feroz Experts predicted massive unemployment due to advents of computers. I believe even doctors, engineers, scientist/professional would need people of ther skills like carpenter, cook/chef, plumber, car mechanic ... to provide various services. People may survive with re-tooling or re-skilling :-)

joy Feb 16, 2017 08:41pm

@akram That is what your government is fooling you with. A great man once said "be the change you want to see in the world." no one from outside can bring the change other than you yourself. You once supported US, now you are supporting China. They all will leave when there selfish interests are met leaving you with the mess they left behind. Its you who can bring change in your country. It's just waste of time to think someone from outside will come and lift your out of your current state.

Sarwat Feb 17, 2017 01:00am

Sure Pakistan has the potential to achieve that and more. IF and only IF, we get rid of corruption, that means getting getting of all corrupt politicians and corrupt government officials and getting our education arena a serious push forward. Mind you, mere collection of paper degrees doesn't make you educated.

Pyasa Feb 17, 2017 01:13am

I will believe, when I see it!

JJ Feb 17, 2017 02:16am

I don't know about 15th largest economy, but, Pakistan will be the 4th most populous country by 2050

Poo Ki Stan Feb 17, 2017 04:26am

Yes indeed - from the bottom!

Ahmed Feb 17, 2017 12:50pm

world's 7th largest in population and still dreaming to be 16th largest economy that too after 35 years. Do something instead of wasting time dreaming and making politics while people get no water, food, education and healthcare

Sujith Prabu Feb 17, 2017 12:49pm

Hi I am from Chennai India. Give a Break Sir. A country is not just made by its Government and Policies alone. People play a very big role in forcing the Government to structure the Policies. Remember the only few differences between India of 80's and Pakistan today is the Institutions, Civilian Domination and Aggressiveness of the Industries and Trade. Otherwise, Pakistan too has a yearning middle class looking for a break, to make its fortune. Then came the liberalisation, the greatest economic reform until demonetisation done during the last year. But Y2k problem and the BRICS report by Goldman Sachs gave the turn around for people's confidence and has been the key driver of the economic polity ever since.

akram Feb 17, 2017 02:03pm

@joy No one suggested for a moment that we rely on others for our betterment. CPEC is simply a tool that will assist the economic development of Pakistan. It is a Win win for both sides.

Just as India relied on Soviet assistance in the past, Pakistan too has learnt its lessons and is well aware not to rely too much on foreign powers, hence the desire for domestic productivity.

Law of jungle Feb 18, 2017 05:16am

It could, but with present trajectory it never would.

deva Feb 18, 2017 10:26am

@akram for using tool u need skill and for developing skill you need education. Hope pak will increase education budget multifold to reap the benefit of CPEC. All the best

Vaibhav Feb 19, 2017 01:29am

Nothing is depend on economy of country.its all depend on per capita income of that country's citizen.I have read report 2050 of pwc.today China and India have big economics than Canada and Australia but peoples per capita income and standard of living is less.by 2050 China and India will be biggest economies in world but per capita income will be around 40,000 dollars whereas USA and Germany will have per capita income of 1 million dollars.

BBW Feb 19, 2017 08:51am

Growth is over for most economies. The "growth" being shown by the US econ0my, for example, is a statistical sleight-of-hand, and I daresay this also holds for some of the European economies. Chine may be growing but it is an anomaly in this respect, and its growth is unsustainable. The global economy is going to be shrinking in the decades ahead -- both the global north and the global south will contract. Behind this lies resource shortages (water, fuel, arable land, minerals), which can already be seen. Dr. Nafeez Mossadeq Ahmed has an interesting and recent book out on this: "Failing States, Collapsing Systems." Pakistanis and Pakistani policy-makers should be preparing for a contracting economy, not a growing one.