WHO would have thought that a day would come when we would look back at the George W. Bush presidency as the good old days? While he was belligerent and ignorant, at least he had a predictable quality that prepared us for what was coming next. Next we had the calm, measured assurance of the Obama era when, whether you agreed with him or not, you knew that a decision was arrived at after considerable thought and analysis.

Not so with Donald Trump who makes policy on the fly and on Twitter. Easily provoked into lashing out by the merest suggestion of a real or imagined slight, we now seem to be a tweet away from Armageddon. When President Duterte of the Philippines called Obama “a son of a w****”, his laconic reply was: “He’s an excitable kind of guy.” Had Duterte made the same remark about Trump, I have no doubt there would be B-52s in the air above Manila within hours.

In fact, if I had been asked to describe the complete opposite of Obama, I doubt if I could have come up with Trump. And yet, mentally, physically and emotionally, Trump is his predecessor’s very antithesis, an anti-Obama incarnate. Physically, he is fat, florid and ungainly when compared with the lean, elegant figure of Obama. Where Obama was contemplative, disciplined and focused, Trump is constantly excitable, hare-brained and all over the place. And while Obama was a voracious reader, I doubt if Trump has read a book in years.

Given his buffoonery and his weird pronouncements, Trump is a godsend to cartoonists and satirists. But with his fragile ego, he can be expected to hit back at what he sees as an unfair media that has ganged up against him. Indeed, his first week bodes ill for America and the rest of the world if it is a sign of things to come. A flurry of executive orders has set the tone for the Trump presidency.

Even more worrying is the ongoing review of American membership in a number of multilateral institutions ranging from the UN to Nato. On the campaign trail, he constantly derided these organisations, and threatened to pull America out if he got elected. Now in the White House, he can be expected to do some major damage to the post World War II framework that, despite its flaws, has transformed the world.

Out of all of Trump’s threats made to foreign powers, the ones to Iran and China stand out for their potential to destabilise entire regions. Trump has threatened to tear up the nuclear agreement with Iran, even though Germany and the other members of the Security Council are party to it. But with Israel’s powerful influence in a Trump White House, an unravelling of the agreement and a spike in tensions, with a possibility of war, is on the cards.

The rapid deterioration in America’s ties with China is perhaps even more serious. Accusing China of manipulating its currency to increase exports to the US, Trump has threatened to slap punitive duties on Chinese imports. And if that were not enough, Trump’s security team is talking about intervening in China’s dispute over parts of the South China Sea. This might well result in clashes that could spin out of control.

In the Middle East, we are watching the formal burial of the comatose two-state solution and the entire peace process, for whatever it was worth. While Obama disappointed us with his inaction, at least he and John Kerry made the appropriate noises. Now, given the powerful influence of Trump’s Zionist son-in-law, we can expect an acceptance of Israel’s de facto colonisation of the West Bank. Moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem will inflame the Palestinians and lead to a resurgence of violence.

Europe is feeling understandably jittery about Trump’s many pronouncements on Nato and collective security. He is demanding that allies pay America cash for protecting them, and has suggested that South Korea and Japan acquire nuclear arsenals to protect themselves. This flies in the face of America’s long-standing anti-proliferation policies, and has caused consternation even among American hawks.

Among all the countries in Trump’s firing line, I feel sorriest for Mexico. Here is an ally, one of America’s largest trading partners, that is being shamelessly bullied by its giant northern neighbour. Although the Mexican president was expected to meet Trump, the meeting was cancelled because he refused to announce that Mexico would pay for the wall the American president wants to build along the border.

This, clearly, is the template for Trump’s brand of diplomacy: unless a foreign leader announces his willingness to sign on the dotted line, he should stay home.

On the day after Trump’s inaugural on Jan 20 there were women’s marches protesting his election around the world. As they drew widespread support from men, my son took my two grandsons to one of them. Sulli, six years old, and his 11-year-old brother Danyaal carried their own signs. Sulli insisted on dictating the words for his protest: “This Trumpus Rumpus Needs to Stop Now.”

Sorry, Sulli, but I fear this rumpus will go on for at least another four years.

irfan.husain@gmail.com

Published in Dawn January 30th, 2017

Opinion

Editorial

‘Source of terror’
Updated 29 Mar, 2024

‘Source of terror’

It is clear that going after militant groups inside Afghanistan unilaterally presents its own set of difficulties.
Chipping in
29 Mar, 2024

Chipping in

FEDERAL infrastructure development schemes are located in the provinces. Most such projects — for instance,...
Toxic emitters
29 Mar, 2024

Toxic emitters

IT is concerning to note that dozens of industries have been violating environmental laws in and around Islamabad....
Judiciary’s SOS
Updated 28 Mar, 2024

Judiciary’s SOS

The ball is now in CJP Isa’s court, and he will feel pressure to take action.
Data protection
28 Mar, 2024

Data protection

WHAT do we want? Data protection laws. When do we want them? Immediately. Without delay, if we are to prevent ...
Selling humans
28 Mar, 2024

Selling humans

HUMAN traders feed off economic distress; they peddle promises of a better life to the impoverished who, mired in...