THE current rain spell has improved the environment for the crops’ growth. According to the metrological officials, Pakistan broke its 60-year record of hot December.

The combination of drought and high mercury levels during winter affected agricultural activity, especially for the rabi crops, across the country.

The January spell of rains has, by and large, put the cropping cycle back on its feet. Since the rains were widespread, slow and steady, crops in fields countrywide received clean environment, increased photosynthetic activity, required temperatures and water supply.

According to the crop watchers, wheat, which had lost around 5pc area, especially in barani (rainfed) lands, due to absence of rain, would get maximum advantage. The three districts falling under the rainfed category in Punjab saw a substantial drop in wheat sowing this season. Rawalpindi district lost 16pc, Attock 27pc and Chakwal 20pc. Farmers from the canal-fed areas had reported that wheat was only gaining height rather than branching out. However, with the current wet spell, the crop is washed, temperature is conducive for the soil to retain moisture. The crop is likely to make up for the recent weather-driven losses in its final yield this season.

The gram crop, which, almost entirely is cultivated in the barani-belt and is totally dependent on rains for its water needs, could be counted next in this benefit index.

Irsa thinks that it would continue with the earlier warning of 17pc water shortage even if there is some relief and save the water for early kharif rather than releasing it now

Owing to the dry spell in the last four months, the crop had lost almost 100,000 acres in sowing, along with germination issues, this season. These factors had made the final estimated figures of production doubtful. The crop, still spread over 22,100 acres in the barani areas, should get more strength if the rains prevail for a while.

The sugarcane crop welcomes any amount of water, regardless of its source. So, the cane is sure to benefit. However, the return of wintery conditions accompanying the rains make the farmers fear about formation of frost in the fields.

The frost also delays the sowing of maize as it does not support conditions for its germination. Maize sowing starts by mid-January and extends into February, so the farmers are now keeping their fingers crossed.

Luckily, the potato crop, nearing harvesting, has escaped the weather-driven stress. Frost may not have much impact on it as early harvesting has already started and would surely gain momentum in the days to come. However, the country has a history of frost in early February; the farmers are not completely dismissing the fear.

Apart from the cropping cycle, the major benefit of the rains will be reaped by the irrigation system. Though these rains would not affect the river flows much, they have delivered some direct benefits. For example, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) had counted 1.2MAF conveyance between October 1, 2016 and January 10. They have come down to only 0.2m cusecs as the rains washed the river beds and slowed down seepage.

On the basis of these savings, the authority, as per its own record, now able to supply 20.30MAF of water against the promised 19MAF. The authority, for the first time in the last few months, now feels that it might have a chance to start the kharif season with some water in its kitty. Earlier, it had warned the provinces that they may face shortages by mid-February.

Irsa’s optimism is generated by the fact that the lower hills have received more snow than rain. This snow on lower altitudes would start melting at the first raze of warmth, probably by mid-February and increase flows in early risers like River Jhelum and Kabul.

The Irsa thinks that it would continue with the earlier warning of 17pc water shortage even if there is some relief and save the water for early kharif rather than releasing it now.

The stated logic for preferring to stick with 17pc shortage warning is that the provinces have already submitted their plans by factoring in the shortages, so it will be possible for them to spend their water share in a frugal manner.

Both the agriculture and water experts in Punjab agree that the current rains might have cut the field water shortage by 3-4pc only, given their small span but they have certainly engineered better conditions for the crops to benefit from during this season.

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, January 23rd, 2017