As the initially shaken global markets digest Donald Trump’s victory in the US — after a frantic spontaneous reaction — Pakistan’s business community is still searching for a silver lining in a dark and cloudy horizon.

Sounding nervous, many business tycoons avoided direct comments and shifted the burden of dealing with the change in the US to Nawaz Sharif’s government. They hoped that the relevant officials would actively engage with the incoming US administration to project and promote the country’s business interests.

“How I wish November 2016 would pass quickly to clear the haze. These are difficult times but this month has proven to be nerve wrecking”, chairman of a large group of companies said commenting on the US election results but also hinting at tangles in Pakistani politics.

‘... I don’t think that the old business model of long-term planning can deliver in this uncertain environment’

“Ask anyone, there is a paralysis like situation in Islamabad. Files are gathering dust in ministries and the boardrooms of companies are shut. How to decide when the risk of the unknown is so high?” he posed a counter question.

Some business leaders cautioned against a misstep in economic diplomacy but banked on optimism that Republican governments in the US have historically been friendlier.

“Mark the rally in the capital market of the country. All other sectors, from currency to commodity, are calm. It’s all white noise”, he dismissed the impression of disappointment from the general reactions in Pakistan.

President Trump threatening, during his campaign, to slap tariffs on imports from trading partners and ‘punish annoying allies’ is widely viewed as an ‘unsettling risk’ by investors.

“They can’t be naïve. To sound positive they must have intentionally ignored the dynamics of regional realignments, particularly the warmth of the US towards India, and it’s an obvious resentment towards the growing influence of China in the wake of the CPEC”, a detractor snapped back when the view stated above was shared with him.

Some businessmen said Pakistan needs to ramp up its efforts to address US concerns as the country cannot afford the ire of the sole super power, irrespective of the political orientation of its president.

The US is a major importer of Pakistani exports and hosts overseas Pakistanis who send valuable foreign exchange back home.

The balance of trade with the US is in Pakistan’s favour: exports, on average, of close to $4bn worth of merchandise per annum — 18pc of total export earnings, and imports at $1.1bn. In the last fiscal year remittances from Pakistani Americans at $2.4bn accounted for 15pc of total inflows in to the country.

In his media debate during the election campaign President Trump reiterated his stand that he would scrap trade deals, including the NAFTA and the TPP that he thought compromised US interests, and promised to lock Chinese goods out of the US through trade barriers.

Experts around the world fear the start of a trade war if the US administration moves aggressively against trade partners.

Many business executives tried to underplay the challenges of dealing with a Trump-led US and argued that it would be lame to judge an elected President on the basis of pre-election sloganeering. They said President Trump may turn out to be different from candidate Trump and thought it would be better to wait for the policy decisions of the next US administration instead of declaring it to be more adversarial towards Pakistan beforehand.

Some seasoned business leaders veiled their discomfort by airing abstract thoughts. They read more than what was obvious in the US election results.

“Unpredictability is the new norm. First the Brexit and now the rout of the Democratic Party in the US. It highlights the ‘disconnect’ of the media, pundits and thought leaders with the ground reality”, a leading light of the Pakistan corporate sector told Dawn declining the request to own his comment.

“If the trend can be taken as an indicator the possibility of Frexit (France opting out of EU) appears real. Not sure where it will stop. You may look at it from any position you like but I don’t think that the old business model of long term planning can deliver in this uncertain environment. Mark my words: In the immediate future investment, trade and consumption will all fall”, he shared his worst fears.

Officials in the economic ministries excused themselves as they said the issue was too sensitive to express their opinion on.

“The situation is still in flux. Let the dust settle down and you will realise that in countries where systems are in place and institutions are strong and independent, change is absorbed without a major upset”, a federal secretary told Dawn privately.

An economist highlighted the gap between physical development and social advancement in modern times.

“These are wages of a technologically advanced world still anchored in archaic ideologies, often guided by self interest, greed and lack of empathy”, the cynical young professional dejected by the Trump victory commented.

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, November 14th, 2016