NOT that long ago, the United States was the only superpower, and its writ was accepted — or enforced at gunpoint — around the world. Its military machine was unequalled, and Washington was able to project hard and soft power to virtually every corner of the globe. In fact, after the collapse of the Soviet Union — largely as a result of trying to keep up with its adversary — many people were resigned to the idea of American hegemony for the foreseeable future.

But if history teaches us anything, it is that nothing is constant, and that the world is forever in flux. Thus, since the early 90s, a number of regional powers and non-state actors have risen to challenge Washington. And while the American armed forces are more than capable of taking on conventional challenges, they are ill-equipped to conduct the kind of operations they have been called upon to conduct in places like Afghanistan and Iraq.

Indeed, American military campaigns there have unleashed even greater resistance and mayhem. Instead of resolving problems, the Americans have multiplied them. China to the east and Russia to the west present challenges of a different magnitude and political complexity.

At a time when Americans are tired of these foreign entanglements, Washington is desperate for allies to share its burden of being the world’s policeman. But even retaining existing relationships is proving difficult. Take Saudi Arabia as an example: for years, this autocratic kingdom has cultivated American politicians, and spent billion on lobbyists. It has lavished hundreds of billions on US arms it can’t use effectively, except against the benighted and impoverished people of Yemen. For this generosity (others would call it bribes), the Saudis have received unstinting diplomatic and military support, with the Americans quietly acquiescing to the export of the Wahabi ideology that has promoted jihadism across the Muslim world.

But as the Americans have become energy independent, Washington no longer dances to the Saudi tune. When America refused to be guided by Riyadh’s (and Tel Aviv’s) advice to bomb Iran, and instead signed a deal lifting sanctions, the Saudis were infuriated and have proceeded to distance themselves from Washington. Instead of bombing the militant Islamic State group together with the Americans, they are bombing Yemen indiscriminately, much to American discomfort.

Turkey, too, is coming closer to Russia. Thus, John Kerry, the American secretary of state, has struggled to forge an effective coalition that could end the fighting in Syria. Egypt, the recipient of over $2billion annually from Washington for decades, recently voted for a Russian resolution at the UN, thereby annoying both the Americans and the Saudis. As a result of these shifts, America is no longer the hegemon in the Middle East as Russia has asserted itself, and is calling the shots in Syria.

To the east, China is flexing its muscles in the South China Sea, building bases by expanding tiny atolls, and staking a claim over a vast area. Washington has been opposing the Chinese bid by forging a regional consensus with Japan, the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam. But the Philippines under President Rodrigo Duterte has recently signed a deal with China to permit its fishermen to operate around the disputed shoals. This agreement tacitly accords sovereignty to China, thus undercutting the American position that these tiny atolls are disputed. In fact, the International Court recently rejected the Chinese claim.

President Duterte also signed infrastructure deals worth $24bn with Beijing, and has signalled his disenchantment with the US, thus putting a decades-long relationship under strain. His earlier characterisation of President Obama as “son of a whore” didn’t help matters. The underlying cause of this tension is Washington’s criticism of the spate of extrajudicial killings of over 2,000 drug dealers and addicts allegedly ordered by President Duterte.

Malaysia, too, is rethinking its alliances, according to reports. The reason is apparently Prime Minister Najib Razak’s fury over American involvement in the investigation of the 1MDB scandal that has rocked Malaysia over the last few months. This involves the mysterious appearance of over a billion dollars in Razak’s personal account from 1MDB, the Malay development fund. Despite denials, a worldwide search for the money trail is ongoing.

Another reason for this lack of confidence in America as an ally is the fact that while Washington is far away, China is very much the bully on the block. Regional states cannot afford to annoy Beijing, given the huge volume of trade and investment that is involved.

So despite President Obama’s famous ‘pivot to Asia’, American alliances are shaky at best. To an extent, this reflects the emergence of China and Russia as major powers that are challenging America in their own regions. And while they are still far from being able to match American military power, they refuse to fall into line when Washington demands it.

Partly, this trend reflects America’s ebbing economic might. While it is still the biggest economy on the planet, it is being overtaken rapidly by China. But after 15 years of non-stop fighting distant wars, public support for its adventures abroad has slipped significantly, and US coffers have been drained. There is thus growing doubt over American will to fight on behalf of its allies in distant corners of the world.

While it is too early to signal an end of America’s superpower status, there is a clear trend towards a redistribution of global power. While the strategic clarity provided by the bipolar world dictated by the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the US has long vanished, we are in the midst of a realignment of power with a dangerous level of fluidity. How the world adjusts to this new reality will determine stability in the future.

irfan.husain@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, November 7th, 2016

Opinion

Editorial

Judiciary’s SOS
Updated 28 Mar, 2024

Judiciary’s SOS

The ball is now in CJP Isa’s court, and he will feel pressure to take action.
Data protection
28 Mar, 2024

Data protection

WHAT do we want? Data protection laws. When do we want them? Immediately. Without delay, if we are to prevent ...
Selling humans
28 Mar, 2024

Selling humans

HUMAN traders feed off economic distress; they peddle promises of a better life to the impoverished who, mired in...
New terror wave
Updated 27 Mar, 2024

New terror wave

The time has come for decisive government action against militancy.
Development costs
27 Mar, 2024

Development costs

A HEFTY escalation of 30pc in the cost of ongoing federal development schemes is one of the many decisions where the...
Aitchison controversy
Updated 27 Mar, 2024

Aitchison controversy

It is hoped that higher authorities realise that politics and nepotism have no place in schools.