After substantially encroaching non-core areas, and to some extent core as well (right up to Sahiwal, bordering the southern part of the province), the rice, maize and sugarcane crops are now entering right into the heart of the cotton belt.

The latest rice figures by the Punjab government show that the Multan Division (Multan, Lodhran, Kahnewal and Vehari), historically considered as a core cotton area, has seen an increase of 17.98pc in its rice area in one year — from 178,000 acres last year to 210,000 acres this year. On the other hand, cotton has lost 15pc of its area in the division — from 405,000 acres last year to 345,000 acres this year.

Other invaders in the cotton area are maize and sugarcane. The maize (autumn) crop was sown on 1.1m acres last year. This year, it has touched 1.44m acres, according to the first estimate by the Crop Reporting Wing, with an increase of 21.32pc.

Similarly, sugarcane has seen its area expanding by 12.30pc — from 1.74m acres last year to 1.95m acres. All the crops are claiming acreage in cotton areas.

Unlike Punjab, Sindh has not only maintained its acreage and yield figures but is improving in cotton pockets as well

On the basis of this emerging scenario, Punjab planners now believe that the core cotton belt has been effectively reduced to only two divisions — Bahawalpur and DG Khan — with Rahim Yar Khan almost lost to sugarcane.

On the basis of cane expansion, more factories are being shifted to the area. The Rahim Yar Khan Division this year saw a further loss of 19pc in cotton acreage — from 511,000 acres last year to 415,000 acres this year.

This is a threatening scenario for a crop with an overall 26pc loss in acreage in one year. In terms of core area, the crop has lost 18.06pc and 38pc in non-core areas.

This year Punjab’s cotton acreage fell to the lowest ever of 4.5m acres. Unlike Punjab, Sindh has not only maintained its acreage and yield figures but is improving in cotton pockets as well.

Cotton crop losses have forced Punjab to allocate Rs5bn for investing on seed in its Kissan package because two of the recent committees, formed to look into acreage loss, maintained that it was primarily due to seed failure, worsened by climatic change.

Both Punjab and the federation are convening regular meetings to stem the cotton rot but success still seems to be a distant dream. The federation offered direct subsidy, and Punjab, mark-up free loans to soothe farmers’ nerves, but they are still protesting the failure of the crop.

Why are these packages still falling short of farmers’ expectation? It is largely because there is a basic disconnect. Farmers have been pressing for a support price for cotton to ensure better returns. The government, on its part, is avoiding it.

Cotton is the most sensitive and risky crop for farmers. Unlike other determinate crops, where the farmers invest up to 70pc at the time of sowing, cotton only needs a 30pc initial investment. The rest is staggered along the crop’s life cycle — weather dictating numbers of sprays (read investment) and possibly three or four pickings; it all needs investment at each stage.

The government should help farmers and the industry arrive at a consensus price, which should then be ensured by all.

There were reports this year that industry has agreed to not let price fall below a set point. But this has not been seen in the market.

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, November 7th, 2016