ASIA has figured prominently in United States President Barack Obama’s foreign policy since 2011.

Ahead of the US presidential election on Nov 8, the question being asked is: Will the pivot, or rebalance, to Asia continue under the next president?

Controversial businessman Donald Trump, who is the presumptive Republican nominee but has no foreign policy experience, has already said it will be “America First” if he is elected.

In comparison, Hillary Clinton, the Democratic front runner and former First Lady who served as her country’s top diplomat for four years, is familiar with, and to, Asia. Here is a look at what a Trump or Clinton presidency will mean for Asia.

Philippines: seeking ‘balance’ on US, China ties

He may have been called the “Donald Trump of the Philippines”, but the equally brash-talking President- elect Rodrigo Duterte will likely hit it off better with Clinton, analysts say.

Jose Antonio Custodio, a defence analyst and former consultant of the US military, said the two men would create “excitement” because there would be “a lot of theatrics”. But their relationship would also be unpredictable. “Trump is theatrical. If there’s an incident, Trump may respond in kind,” he said.

Custodio said Duterte, by being unpredictable with his foreign policy, especially on China, is seeking to balance US and Chinese influence on Philippine affairs. “The US has been patronising, condescending. By being unpredictable, Duterte will be a source of concern, and so they will have to treat him with a little more respect,” said Custodio.

“It’s more equi-balancing vis-a- vis Beijing and America,” said political analyst Richard Javad Heydarian, of De La Salle University. He said a softer policy towards China is unlikely to drive a wedge into the US-Philippine alliance, no matter who is elected president.

“The US pivot is comprehensive and is not anchored by a single ally. The real regional vortex is Singapore, Japan and Australia, not the Philippines,” he said.

Luis Limlingan, an analyst with Regina Capital Development, said with the two men having very similar personalities, “they will likely clash on different issues”.

“Clinton can probably handle Duterte better. She has more policy experience, and it will be easy for them to reach agreements,” he said.

Japan: goal is to further ties with whoever is elected

Some of the campaign rhetoric may have troubled the United States’ long-time ally Japan, but Tokyo’s response is that it will work with whoever is the new US president. The goal is to “further strengthen Japan-US relations going forward”, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said earlier this month.

Regional Revitalisation Minister Shigeru Ishiba told a forum in Washington recently that while the comments of a presidential candidate caused “a lot of concern”, he was sure “the proper policies will be formulated with an understanding of the nature of the alliance and the international environment”.

Trump, who has been touting an “America First” foreign policy, wants Japan and South Korea to pay more for defence arrangements. He also suggested they develop their own nuclear weapons — an unthinkable idea to the only country to be attacked by atomic bombs.

Such views are “a betrayal of trust and antithetical to the foundations of bilateral relations”, said Professor Jeffrey Kingston, director of Asian studies at Japan’s Temple University.

But he noted that Trump’s views on security “dovetail with the wish list of hawkish conservatives” who are eager to see Japan expand its security posture and take more responsibility for national security. This is because the comments show that “in a time of need, the US may be an unreliable ally”.

In comparison, Clinton is “admired and represents the responsible adult in the room”, Prof Kingston added, given her previous job as secretary of state.

China: experts split over impact on bilateral ties

Despite his China-bashing rhetoric, Trump has many fans among Chinese netizens. His entrepreneurial prowess aside, the presumptive Republican nominee’s political incorrectness holds appeal in a society where few dare to step out of line.

A Global Times poll of 3,300 people in late March found 54 per cent support for Trump, who also benefited from Chinese wariness of Clinton, who adopted a tough stance on issues such as cybersecurity and human rights when she was Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013.

But Chinese foreign policy experts are split over the impact the two have on bilateral ties. Renmin University analyst Shi Yinhong said economic ties could suffer under a Trump presidency. He had pledged to impose a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports. “We could see a significant negative impact at least for the first two years,” he said.

Most analysts expect Trump, whose China-bashing is related to trade, to be more flexible on bilateral issues. It will also be to China’s benefit if the new leader focuses on the US economy rather than on maintaining US influence overseas.

As for a Clinton presidency, China remains cautious as she was instrumental in implementing the US pivot to Asia, which is seen as an attempt to contain China’s rise.

Yet, a Democratic win means the US stance towards China will be more predictable due to continuity of policies and personnel in the White House, analysts said in a recent interview. “China is more familiar with Clinton. As for who [exactly] Trump is, no one knows,” said Professor Shi.

South Korea: worries about trade and security

Some analysts have warned that Seoul’s security alliance with Washington might crumble if the next US president were Trump, who has said he might withdraw the 28,000 US forces stationed in South Korea to keep North Korea at bay.

Trump has also demanded that Seoul pay the full cost of keeping US troops here, instead of about half the bill or 920 billion won (S$1 billion).

Sogang University’s political science professor Kim Jae Chun said “no US president can single-handedly scrap the alliance”, but ties would be “adversely affected” under a Trump presidency.

There are also worries that Trump may implement protectionist trade policies that will hurt South Korea’s exports to the US, and that he might push for South Korea and Japan to develop their own nuclear weapons against nuclear-armed North Korea, which could lead to a nuclear arms race in East Asia.

In contrast, South Koreans view Trump’s key rival, Clinton, more favourably as they are more familiar with her work as US Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013. Clinton visited Seoul five times during her tenure, including in 2010 to pay tribute to 46 sailors killed in a warship sinking blamed on the North.

Prof Kim said Clinton is well versed in foreign policy and more likely to “stay committed to the US-Korea alliance”. However, there is also concern that her hawkish stance on North Korea could rock stability in the Korean peninsula. “If Trump is an earthquake, Clinton is a storm. Either way, Korea is faced with a serious challenge,” said an editorial in the JoongAng Ilbo newspaper.

India: analysts predict continuity in us policy

He has made fun of the accents of Indian call centre workers, accused Indians of taking jobs away from Americans and pledged to curb the number of Indians entering the United States to work.

But Trump has also called India a “great place” and the only country that can act as a check on “dangerous” Pakistan. The remarks leave Indians confused and unsure about Trump.

In contrast, many regard his rival Clinton as a friend of India. “With Hillary Clinton, we have experience and something to go by, while Trump is an unknown quality... If there is a need for protectionist measures, one would expect Clinton to be more moderate than Trump. Trump would be more aggressive in dealing with Pakistan,” said Naresh Chandra, a former Indian ambassador to the US. “Most Indians would like to see Hillary Clinton in the White House.”

India and the US have drawn closer in recent years, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi scheduled to visit the US next month, his fourth trip to the US in two years.

While the rhetoric against the Indian outsourcing industry remains a worry, with Clinton also saying she would punish US companies that sent jobs out of the country, foreign policy analysts predict a continuity in US policy towards India. “Whoever comes to power will see the advantage of maintaining a strategic partnership with India,” said former Indian foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh.

Still, Trump is not without supporters. Members of Hindu Sena are praying for his victory on Nov 8.

The Straits Times / Singapore

Published in Dawn September 28th, 2016